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Citations of

James Hamilton

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Hamilton, James D, 1988. "A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 593-617, June.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Divergent Unemployment Rates
      by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2009-02-17 08:33:00
    2. Sectoral Rigidities
      by ryan in The bellows on 2009-02-10 01:10:03
    3. A macroeconomic naif's questions are answered
      by Michael J Roberts in Greed, Green and grains on 2009-02-09 04:07:00
    4. Divergent Unemployment Rates
      by Tim Duy in tim duy's fed watch on 2009-02-17 05:55:46
    5. Can lower oil prices cause a recession?
      by James_Hamilton in Econbrowser on 2016-01-24 21:47:17
    6. This could be the first recession caused by falling oil prices
      by feedback@businessinsider.com (James Hamilton) in Business Insider on 2016-01-26 19:31:00
    7. Why no economic boost from lower oil prices?
      by James_Hamilton in Econbrowser on 2016-04-10 18:58:50
    8. Here's why low oil prices aren't helping the economy
      by feedback@businessinsider.com (James Hamilton) in Business Insider on 2016-04-12 19:20:00
    9. Warum der niedrige Ölpreis die Wirtschaft nicht stimuliert
      by Acemaxx-Analytics in Acemaxx-Analytics on 2016-04-14 09:14:00
    10. Why no economic boost from lower oil prices?
      by ? in Resilience on 2016-04-11 16:32:00
  2. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Les récessions américaines sont-elles déclenchées par les chocs pétroliers ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-09-27 10:30:00
    2. Guest Contribution: “Why Are So Many Commodity Prices Down in the US… Yet Up in Europe?”
      by Menzie Chinn in Econbrowser on 2014-12-18 15:37:10
  3. Hamilton, James D., 1987. "Monetary factors in the great depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-169, March.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The Gold Standard
      by Josh in The everyday economist on 2007-11-13 13:42:43
    2. Branislav Žúdel: Ešte raz k inflácii
      by Kriteko in Kritická ekonómia on 2012-02-03 07:53:29
  4. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Risk premia in crude oil futures prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-37.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Guest Contribution: “Why Are So Many Commodity Prices Down in the US… Yet Up in Europe?”
      by Menzie Chinn in Econbrowser on 2014-12-18 15:37:10
  5. David Greenlaw & James D. Hamilton & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2013. "Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 19297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Do central banks need capital?
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2015-05-26 12:19:47
  6. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 3-46, 02.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen: Perspectives on Monetary Policy
      by Guest Author in The Big Picture on 2012-06-07 11:05:32
    2. Full text: Janet Yellen – Perspectives on Monetary Policy
      by Guest Author in Credit Writedowns on 2012-06-07 13:10:28
    3. Quel est l’efficacité de l’assouplissement quantitatif ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-05-01 12:19:00
    4. FED VICE CHAIR FISCHER: 'We should also expect spillovers when monetary policy is tightened'
      by Sam Ro in Business Insider on 2015-05-26 16:45:00
  7. Hamilton, James D., 1986. "A standard error for the estimated state vector of a state-space model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 387-397, December.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Did the Natural Rate Fall***?
      by noreply@blogger.com (Carola) in Quantitative Ease on 2015-10-30 20:56:00
    2. [経済]米国の自然利子率は下がったのか?
      by himaginary in himaginaryの日記 on 2015-11-01 00:00:00
  8. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Les récessions américaines sont-elles déclenchées par les chocs pétroliers ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-09-27 10:30:00
  9. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Nonlinearities And The Macroeconomic Effects Of Oil Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 364-378, November.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Les récessions américaines sont-elles déclenchées par les chocs pétroliers ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-09-27 10:30:00
  10. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Les récessions américaines sont-elles déclenchées par les chocs pétroliers ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-09-27 10:30:00
  11. James D. Hamilton, 1988. "Role Of The International Gold Standard In Propagating The Great Depression," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 6(2), pages 67-89, 04.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Return to the gold standard
      by James Hamilton in Econbrowser on 2012-09-01 09:31:48
    2. Gold conspiracies
      by JP Koning in Moneyness on 2012-09-20 14:02:00
    3. Why a gold standard is a very bad idea
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2016-12-19 13:51:14
  12. Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February.

    Mentioned in:

    1. How the Fed Smoothed Quarter-End Volatility in the Fed Funds Market
      by Blog Author in Liberty Street Economics on 2016-03-28 11:00:00
  13. Author Profile
    1. Ranking California Economists as of May 2015
      by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics on 2015-06-03 21:25:00
    2. Peers at Work; the April 2017 version
      by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics on 2017-05-04 00:16:00

Wikipedia mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott Borger, 2011. "Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-28, July.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule (AEJ:MA 2011) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2002. "A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(5), pages 1135-1167, October.

    Mentioned in:

    1. A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target (JPE 2002) in ReplicationWiki ()
  3. Davis, Michael C & Hamilton, James D, 2004. "Why Are Prices Sticky? The Dynamics of Wholesale Gasoline Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 17-37, February.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Why Are Prices Sticky? The Dynamics of Wholesale Gasoline Prices (JMCB 2004) in ReplicationWiki ()
  4. Author Profile
    1. Benutzer:Ephraim33/Nobelpreisträgerprojekt in Wikipedia (German)
    2. ジェームズ・ハミルトン (計量経済学者) in Wikipedia (Japanese)

Working papers

  1. James D. Hamilton, 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers 21863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Marie Dufour & Richard Luger, 2017. "Identification-robust moment-based tests for Markov-switching in autoregressive models," Cahiers de recherche 1701, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.

  2. Bauer, Michael D. & Hamilton, James D., 2015. "Robust bond risk premia," Working Paper Series 2015-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, revised 25 Sep 2015.

    Cited by:

    1. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    2. Martin M. Andreasen & Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2016. "Bond Market Asymmetries across Recessions and Expansions: New Evidence on Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2016-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

  3. James D. Hamilton & Ethan S. Harris & Jan Hatzius & Kenneth D. West, 2015. "The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present and Future," NBER Working Papers 21476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle and Ultra-low Interest Rates," PIER Discussion Papers 55, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Mar 2017.
    2. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2016. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Working Paper Series 2016-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Carvalho, Carlos & Ferrero, Andrea & Nechio, Fernanda, 2016. "Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 208-226.
    4. Alan Blindera & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2016. "Necessity as the mother of invention monetary policy after the crisis," DNB Working Papers 525, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Julien Albertini & Hong Lan, 2016. "The importance of time-varying parameters in new Keynesian models with zero lower bound," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-013, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    6. Stanley Fischer, 2016. "Reflections on Macroeconomics Then and Now," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 133-141, July.
    7. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2016. "Real Interest Rates, Imbalances and the Curse of Regional Safe Asset Providers at the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 22618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Evans, Charles L. & Fisher, Jonas D. M. & Gourio, Francois & Krane, Spencer D., 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound," Working Paper Series WP-2015-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    9. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric R., 2015. "Robust permanent income in general equilibrium," Research Working Paper RWP 15-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    10. Atanas Hristov, 2016. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest in the Eurozone: A DSGE Perspective," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(1), pages 86-91, 04.
    11. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2016. "Equilibrium real interest rates and secular stagnation: An empirical analysis for euro area member countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 621, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Francois Velde & Benoït Mojon & Magali Marx, 2016. "Why are real interest rates so low?," 2016 Meeting Papers 1581, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.
    14. Beyer, Robert & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Instability, imprecision and inconsistent use of equilibrium real interest rate estimates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11927, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2017. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," Working Paper Series 2017-7, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Beyer, Robert C. M. & Wieland, Volker, 2015. "Schätzung des mittelfristigen Gleichgewichtszinses in den Vereinigten Staaten, Deutschland und dem Euro-Raum mit der Laubach-Williams-Methode," Working Papers 03/2015, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    17. Christopher Gust & Benjamin K. Johannsen & J. David López-Salido, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Incomplete Information, and the Zero Lower Bound," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(1), pages 37-70, April.
    18. Andrea Pescatori & Jarkko Turunen, 2015. "Lower for Longer; Neutral Rates in the United States," IMF Working Papers 15/135, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Bec, Frédérique & De Gaye, Annabelle, 2016. "How do oil price forecast errors impact inflation forecast errors? An empirical analysis from US, French and UK inflation forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 75-88.
    20. Yi, Kei-Mu & Zhang, Jing, 2016. "Real Interest Rates over the Long Run," Economic Policy Paper 16-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    21. Abeer Reza & Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2015. "Quantitative Easing as a Policy Tool Under the Effective Lower Bound," Discussion Papers 15-14, Bank of Canada.
    22. Mariarosaria Comunale & Jonas Striaukas, 2017. "Unconventional monetary policy: interest rates and low inflation. A review of literature and methods," CEIS Research Paper 406, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 12 May 2017.
    23. Luigi Bonatti, 2016. "Anemic economic growth in advanced economies: structural factors and the impotence of expansionary macroeconomic policies," DEM Working Papers 2016/11, Department of Economics and Management.
    24. Andrea Pescatori & Jarkko Turunen, 2016. "Lower for Longer: Neutral Rate in the U.S," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 708-731, November.

  4. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2014. "Sign Restrictions, Structural Vector Autoregressions, and Useful Prior Information," NBER Working Papers 20741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Dedola, Luca & Rivolta, Giulia & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "If the Fed sneezes, who catches a cold?," Working Paper Series 2050, European Central Bank.
    2. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Harris, Richard & Stoja, Evarist & Chin, Michael, 2016. "Financial market volatility, macroeconomic fundamentals and investor sentiment," Bank of England working papers 608, Bank of England.
    3. Klaus Neusser, 2016. "A Topological View on the Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions," Diskussionsschriften dp1604, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    4. Valerie A. Ramey, 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," NBER Working Papers 21978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Clark, Todd E. & Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2016. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility and Flexible Priors," Working Paper 1617, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    6. Renata Wróbel-Rotter, 2016. "Impulse Response Functions in the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Vector Autoregression Model," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 8(2), pages 93-114, June.
    7. Jasmien De Winne & Gert Peersman, 2016. "Macroeconomic Effects of Disruptions in Global Food Commodity Markets: Evidence for the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 6193, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "On the Rise of Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-085/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Sep 2014.
    9. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2016. "Data-Driven Inference on Sign Restrictions in Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression," CREATES Research Papers 2016-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    10. Danne, Christian, 2015. "VARsignR: Estimating VARs using sign restrictions in R," MPRA Paper 68429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Neri, Stefano & Nobili, Andrea & Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Low inflation and monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2005, European Central Bank.
    12. Stefan Behrendt, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects on Bank Lending in the Euro Area," Jena Economic Research Papers 2017-002, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    13. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2016. "Monetary policy and exchange rates: Further evidence using a new method for implementing sign restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 177-191.
    14. Francis DiTraglia & Camilo García-Jimeno, 2016. "A Framework for Eliciting, Incorporating, and Disciplining Identification Beliefs in Linear Models," NBER Working Papers 22621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Barnichon, Régis & Matthes, Christian, 2016. "Gaussian Mixture Approximations of Impulse Responses and The Non-Linear Effects of Monetary Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 11374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  5. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Effects of Index-Fund Investing on Commodity Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 19892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Etienne, Xiaoli, 2015. "Financialization of Agricultural Commodity Markets: Do Financial Data Help to Forecast Agricultural Prices," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211626, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Alessandro Cologni & Elisa Scarpa & Francesco Giuseppe Sitzia, 2015. "Big Fish: Oil Markets and Speculation," Working Papers 2015.52, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Deepa Datta & Benjamin K Johannsen & Hannah Kwon & Robert J Vigfusson, 2017. "Oil, equities, and the zero lower bound," BIS Working Papers 617, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Matteo Bonato and Luca Taschini, 2016. "Comovement and the Financialization of Commodities," Working Papers 587, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    5. Brunetti, Celso & Büyükşahin, Bahattin & Harris, Jeffrey H., 2016. "Speculators, Prices, and Market Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(05), pages 1545-1574, October.
    6. Karol Szafranek, 2015. "Financialisation of the commodity markets. Conclusions from the VARX DCC GARCH," NBP Working Papers 213, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    7. Veiga, Helena & Ramos, Sofía B. & Martín-Barragán, Belén, 2013. "Correlations between oil and stock markets : a wavelet-based approach," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws130504, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    8. Jacobs, Keri & Li, Ziran & Hayes, Dermot, 2016. "Price responses in forward contracting: do we limit the upside and expose the downside?," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235539, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Taylor, Nick, 2016. "Roll strategy efficiency in commodity futures markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 14-34.
    10. Kucher, Oleg & Kurov, Alexander, 2014. "Business cycle, storage, and energy prices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 217-226.
    11. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H., 2014. "Energy futures prices and commodity index investment: New evidence from firm-level position data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 57-68.
    12. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    13. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Tsangyao Chang & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Relationship between Commodity Markets and Commodity Mutual Funds: A Wavelet-Based Analysis," Working Papers 201619, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Reboredo, Juan C. & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2016. "Do financial stress and policy uncertainty have an impact on the energy and metals markets? A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 284-298.

  6. James D. Hamilton, 2014. "The Changing Face of World Oil Markets," NBER Working Papers 20355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Al-Belushi, Kawther I.A. & Stead, Selina M. & Burgess, J. Grant, 2015. "The development of marine biotechnology in Oman: Potential for capacity building through open innovation," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 147-157.
    2. Erdenebat Bataa & Marwan Izzeldin & Denise Osborn, 2015. "Changes in the global oil market," Working Papers 75761696, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    3. Bidder, Rhys & Krainer, John & Shapiro, Adam Hale, 2017. "Drilling into Bank Balance Sheets: Examining Portfolio Responses to an Oil Shock," Working Paper Series 2017-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  7. David Greenlaw & James D. Hamilton & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2013. "Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 19297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2015. "Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 45-58.
    2. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2017. "Rethinking monetary policy after the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 252-274.
    3. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2013. "A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income," Working Paper Series 2013-38, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Del Negro, Marco & Sims, Christopher A., 2014. "When does a central bank’s balance sheet require fiscal support?," Staff Reports 701, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Stephen Quinn & William Roberds, 2016. "Death of a Reserve Currency," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 63-103, December.
    6. Muneesh Kapur & Rakesh Mohan, 2014. "India’s Recent Macroeconomic Performance; An Assessment and Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 14/68, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Sergey E. Pekarski, 2015. "Tight Money and the Sustainability of Public Debt," HSE Working papers WP BRP 95/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    8. Szilágyi, Katalin & Kiss, Áron, 2014. "Miért más ez a válság, mint a többi?. Az adósságleépítés szerepe a nagy recesszióban
      [Why is this crisis different?. The role of deleveraging in the great recession]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 949-974.
    9. Erotokritos Varelas & Gerasimos T. Soldatos, 2014. "The Chicago Tradition and Commercial Bank Seigniorage," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(1), pages 29-38, March.
    10. Ichiue, Hibiki & Shimizu, Yuhei, 2015. "Determinants of long-term yields: A panel data analysis of major countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 44-55.
    11. Michael J. Boskin, 2013. "The State of the Economy and Economic Policy," Economics Working Papers 13102, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    12. Yýlmaz Akyüz, 2014. "Crisis Mismanagement in The United States And Europe: Impact On Developing Countries And Longer-Term Consequences," Working Papers 2014/3, Turkish Economic Association.
    13. Michael D. Bordo, 2014. "Exiting from Low Interest Rates to Normality: An Historical Perspective," Economics Working Papers 14110, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    14. ADAM, Alexandra, 2015. "Approaches Of Public Finance Sustainability Taking Into Account The Current Economic Context," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 19(1), pages 93-101.
    15. Soldatos, Gerasimos T., 2014. "A Fiscal-Monetary Policy Scheme against Greek Indebtedness and Impoverishment - Un programma di politica fiscale-monetaria contro l’indebitamento e l’impoverimento della Grecia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 67(2), pages 243-261.
    16. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2015. "Non-Neutrality of Open-Market Operations," CEPR Discussion Papers 10594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2014. "Transmission of the debt crisis: From EU15 to USA or vice versa? A GVAR approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-132.
    18. Soldatos, Gerasimos T., 2014. "A Fiscal-Monetary Policy Scheme Against Greek Indebtedness and Impoverishment," MPRA Paper 57080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Mariam Camarero & Jesús Peiró-Palomino & Cecilio Tamarit, 2017. "External imbalances and growth," Working Papers 2017/02, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    20. Ali Acosta & Daniel Barráez & Danyira Pérez & Mariana Urbina, 2015. "Country Risk, Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Uncertainty in Latin American Economies," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 147-174, July-Dece.

  8. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2013. "Risk Premia in Crude Oil Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 19056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K, 2013. "Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories," CEPR Discussion Papers 9297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2014. "A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil," CFS Working Paper Series 466, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    3. Cristiana Belu Manescu & Ine Van Robays, 2016. "Forecasting the Brent Oil Price: Addressing Time-Variation in Forecast Performance," CESifo Working Paper Series 6242, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Nie, Pu-yan & Yang, Yong-cong, 2016. "Effects of energy price fluctuations on industries with energy inputs: An application to China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 329-334.
    5. Laurent Ferrara & Pierre Guérin, 2015. "What Are The Macroeconomic Effects of High-Frequency Uncertainty Shocks?," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-12, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
    6. Baumeister, Christiane & Ellwanger, Reinhard & Kilian, Lutz, 2016. "Did the renewable fuel standard shift market expectations of the price of ethanol?," CFS Working Paper Series 563, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 238-252.
    8. Erdenebat Bataa & Marwan Izzeldin & Denise Osborn, 2015. "Changes in the global oil market," Working Papers 75761696, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    9. Kaabia, Olfa & Abid, Ilyes & Mkaouar, Farid, 2016. "The dark side of the black gold shock onto Europe: One stock's joy is another stock's sorrow," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 642-654.
    10. Peter Christoffersen & Xuhui (Nick) Pan, 2014. "Oil Volatility Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CREATES Research Papers 2015-06, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Ron Alquist & Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2014. "What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?," Staff Working Papers 14-42, Bank of Canada.
    12. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us," CESifo Working Paper Series 5709, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Understanding the decline in the price of oil since June 2014," CFS Working Paper Series 501, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    14. Mark Cummins & Michael Dowling & Fearghal Kearney, 2016. "Oil market modelling: A comparative analysis of fundamental and latent factor approaches," Post-Print hal-01387596, HAL.
    15. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Jhih-Hong, 2014. "The relationship between spot and futures oil prices: Do structural breaks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 206-217.
    16. Ahmadov, Vugar & Huseynov, Salman & Mammadov, Fuad & Karimli, Tural, 2015. "Brent nefti opsiyonlarından neytral riskli ehtimal paylanmasının əldə olunması
      [Extracting risk-neutral probability distribution from Brent oil options]
      ," MPRA Paper 65704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jozef Baruník, Evzen Kocenda and Lukáa Vácha, 2015. "Volatility Spillovers Across Petroleum Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    18. Michael Hachula & Malte Rieth, 2017. "Identifying Speculative Demand Shocks in Commodity Futures Markets through Changes in Volatility," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1646, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2016. "Forecasting oil price realized volatility: A new approach," MPRA Paper 69105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Michael Hachula & Malte Rieth, 2015. "Finanzspekulation und Rohstoffpreise," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 63, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    21. Yin, Libo & Zhou, Yimin, 2016. "What drives long-term oil market volatility? Fundamentals versus speculation," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 10, pages 1-26.
    22. Carl Chiarella & Boda Kang & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Thuy-Duong To, 2013. "The Return-Volatility Relation in Commodity Futures Markets," Research Paper Series 336, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    23. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    24. Chatrath, Arjun & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Wang, Tianyang, 2016. "An examination of the flow characteristics of crude oil: Evidence from risk-neutral moments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 213-223.
    25. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets: Dynamic connectedness under the prism of recent geopolitical and economic unrest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-26.
    26. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H., 2014. "Energy futures prices and commodity index investment: New evidence from firm-level position data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 57-68.
    27. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2013. "Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a "Carry Trade" Model of Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 19463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2014. "Spillovers between oil and stock markets at times of geopolitical unrest and economic turbulence," MPRA Paper 59760, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Hevia, Constantino & Petrella, Ivan & Sola, Martin, 2016. "Risk premia and seasonality in commodity futures," Bank of England working papers 591, Bank of England.
    30. Yin, Libo & Zhou, Yimin, 2016. "What drives long-term oil market volatility? Fundamentals versus Speculation," Economics Discussion Papers 2016-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    31. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    32. D'Ecclesia, Rita L. & Magrini, Emiliano & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Triulzi, Umberto, 2014. "Understanding recent oil price dynamics: A novel empirical approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 11-17.
    33. Gao, Lin & Süss, Stephan, 2015. "Market sentiment in commodity futures returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 84-103.

  9. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Identification and Estimation of Gaussian Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 17772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Drew D. Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Estimation of Affine Term Structure Models with Spanned or Unspanned Stochastic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 20115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench, 2008. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Staff Reports 340, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Andreasen, Martin M & Meldrum, Andrew, 2015. "Dynamic term structure models: the best way to enforce the zero lower bound in the United States," Bank of England working papers 550, Bank of England.
    4. Mirko Abbritti & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha & Antonio Moreno, 2016. "Term Structure Persistence," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 14(2), pages 331-352.
    5. Goliński, Adam & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Long memory affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 33-56.
    6. Barillas, Francisco & Nimark, Kristoffer P, 2013. "Speculation, Risk Premia and Expectations in the Yield Curve," CEPR Discussion Papers 9755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Chiarella, Carl & Hsiao, Chih-Ying & Tô, Thuy-Duong, 2016. "Stochastic correlation and risk premia in term structure models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 59-78.
    8. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "No Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 9848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 3-46, 02.
    10. Juan Andrés Espinosa Torres & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & José Fernando Moreno Gutiérrez, 2014. "Estimación de la prima por vencimiento de los TES en pesos del gobierno colombiano," Borradores de Economia 854, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Sögner, Leopold, 2015. "GMM Estimation of Affine Term Structure Models," Economics Series 315, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    12. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2015. "Understanding policy rates at the zero lower bound: insights from a Bayesian shadow rate model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1023, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Bent Jesper, 2015. "The SR approach: A new estimation procedure for non-linear and non-Gaussian dynamic term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 420-451.
    14. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Testable implications of affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 231-242.
    15. Bouwman, Kees & Buis, Boyd & Pieterse-Bloem, Mary & Tham, Wing Wah, 2015. "A practical approach to constructing price-based funding liquidity factors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 90-97.
    16. Mirkov, Nikola, 2012. "International Financial Transmission of the US Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers on Finance 1201, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    17. Halberstadt, Arne, 2015. "The term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy: Learning about economic dynamics from a FAVAR," Discussion Papers 02/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    18. Martin M. Andreasen & Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2016. "Bond Market Asymmetries across Recessions and Expansions: New Evidence on Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2016-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    19. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew Meldrum, 2014. "Dynamic term structure models: The best way to enforce the zero lower bound," CREATES Research Papers 2014-47, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    20. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5241, CESifo Group Munich.
    21. Mirkov, Nikola & Sutter, Barbara, 2012. "Central Bank Reserves and the Yield Curve at the ZLB," Working Papers on Finance 1208, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    22. Juneja, Januj, 2012. "Common factors, principal components analysis, and the term structure of interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 48-56.
    23. Eran Raviv, 2013. "Prediction Bias Correction for Dynamic Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-041/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    24. Meldrum, Andrew & Raczko, Marek & Spencer, Peter, 2016. "Overseas unspanned factors and domestic bond returns," Bank of England working papers 618, Bank of England.
    25. Drew D. Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 20594, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2015. "Effects Of Index‐Fund Investing On Commodity Futures Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 187-205, 02.
    27. Malik, Sheheryar & Meldrum, Andrew, 2016. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-102.
    28. Morris, Stephen D., 2017. "DSGE pileups," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 56-86.
    29. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Risk premia in crude oil futures prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-37.
    30. Gideon Magnus, 2016. "A plausible model of yield curve dynamics," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 30(2), pages 205-228, May.
    31. Duan, Jin-Chuan, 2016. "Local-momentum autoregression and the modeling of interest rate term structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(2), pages 349-359.
    32. Meldrum, Andrew & Roberts-Sklar, Matt, 2015. "Long-run priors for term structure models," Bank of England working papers 575, Bank of England.
    33. Januj Juneja, 2015. "An evaluation of alternative methods used in the estimation of Gaussian term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-24, January.
    34. Spencer, Peter, 2016. "US bank credit spreads during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 168-182.
    35. Zbynek Stork, 2016. "Term Structure of Interest Rates: Macro-Finance Approach," EcoMod2016 9566, EcoMod.
    36. Hevia, Constantino & Petrella, Ivan & Sola, Martin, 2016. "Risk premia and seasonality in commodity futures," Bank of England working papers 591, Bank of England.
    37. Juneja, Januj, 2014. "Term structure estimation in the presence of autocorrelation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 119-129.
    38. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Term premia and the news," Working Paper Series 2011-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  10. James D. Hamilton, 2012. "Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 17759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Kallis, Giorgos & Sager, Jalel, 2017. "Oil and the economy: A systematic review of the literature for ecological economists," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 561-571.
    2. Renato Agurto & Fernando Fuentes & Carlos Garcia & Esteban Skoknic, 2013. "Power Generation and the Business Cycle: The Impact of Delaying Investment," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv290, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
    3. Svetlana Aleksandrova, 2016. "Impact of Oil Prices on Oil Exporting Countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 447-460, December.
    4. Casey, Gregory, 2017. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," MPRA Paper 76416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Arkady Gevorkyan & Willi Semmler, 2015. "Oil Price, Overleveraging, and Shakeout in the Shale Energy Sector: Game Changers in the Oil Industry," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 2015-07, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    6. Wolfgang Pollan, 2013. "US Inflation and Crude Oil Prices. An International Perspective," WIFO Working Papers 451, WIFO.

  11. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "Testable Implications of Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 16931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Drew D. Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Estimation of Affine Term Structure Models with Spanned or Unspanned Stochastic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 20115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Juneja, Januj A., 2016. "Financial crises and estimation bias in international bond markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 593-607.
    3. Tack Yun & Eunmi Ko & Jinsook Kim, 2013. "The Role of Bounded Rationality in Macro-Finance Affine Term-Structure Models," 2013 Meeting Papers 527, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 3-46, 02.
    5. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Bent Jesper, 2015. "The SR approach: A new estimation procedure for non-linear and non-Gaussian dynamic term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 420-451.
    6. Martin M. Andreasen & Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2016. "Bond Market Asymmetries across Recessions and Expansions: New Evidence on Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2016-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Eran Raviv, 2013. "Prediction Bias Correction for Dynamic Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-041/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Morris, Stephen D., 2017. "DSGE pileups," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 56-86.
    9. Raviv, Eran, 2015. "Prediction bias correction for dynamic term structure models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 112-115.
    10. Duan, Jin-Chuan, 2016. "Local-momentum autoregression and the modeling of interest rate term structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(2), pages 349-359.
    11. Zou, Tao & Chen, Song Xi, 2014. "Enhancing Estimation for Interest Rate Diffusion Models with Bond Prices," MPRA Paper 67073, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2015.
    12. Januj Juneja, 2015. "An evaluation of alternative methods used in the estimation of Gaussian term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-24, January.
    13. Juneja, Januj, 2014. "Term structure estimation in the presence of autocorrelation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 119-129.

  12. James D. Hamilton, 2011. "Historical Oil Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 118-125.
    2. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Crude Oil Prices and Liquidity, the BRIC and G3 countries," MPRA Paper 44049, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2013. "The high-frequency asymmetric response of stock returns to monetary policy for high oil price events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 166-176.
    4. Chiroma, Haruna & Abdulkareem, Sameem & Herawan, Tutut, 2015. "Evolutionary Neural Network model for West Texas Intermediate crude oil price prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 266-273.
    5. William Barnett & Hajar Aghababa, 2016. "Dynamic Structure of the Spot Price of Crude Oil: Does Time Aggregation Matter?," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201602, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2016.
    6. Jamil, Faisal, 2012. "Impact of different public E&P policies on natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 368-374.
    7. Proost, Stef & Van Dender, Kurt, 2012. "Energy and environment challenges in the transport sector," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 77-87.
    8. Miljkovic, Dragan & Dalbec, Nathan & Zhang, Lei, 2016. "Estimating dynamics of US demand for major fossil fuels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 284-291.
    9. Nazir, Sidra & Qayyum, Abdul, 2014. "Impact of Oil Price and Shocks on Economic Growth of Pakistan: Multivariate Analysis," MPRA Paper 55929, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    10. Li, Qiming & Cheng, Ke & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2017. "Response pattern of stock returns to international oil price shocks: From the perspective of China’s oil industrial chain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1821-1831.
    11. María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2016. "Oil Price and Economic Growth: A Long Story?," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(4), pages 1-28, October.
    12. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1220-1239.
    13. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Liquidity and crude oil prices: China's influence over 1996–2011," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 517-525.
    14. Ayman Omar, 2015. "West Texas Intermediate and Brent Spread during Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Supply Disruptions," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 693-703.
    15. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Crude Oil Prices: China’s Influence Over 1996-2011," Working Papers 15728, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 17 Dec 2012.
    16. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2012. "What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies," Working Paper 2012/11, Norges Bank.
    17. Trevor Houser & Shashank Mohan, 2011. "America’s Energy Security Options," Policy Briefs PB11-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    18. Neil A. Wilmot and Charles F. Mason, 2013. "Jump Processes in the Market for Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    19. Rongrong Sun, 2014. "Nominal rigidity and some new evidence on the New Keynesian theory of the output-inflation tradeoff," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 575-597, December.
    20. Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark, 2017. "Forecasting oil and stock returns with a Qual VAR using over 150years off data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 181-186.
    21. Leonardo Villar & Felipe Castro & David Forero & Juan Mauricio Ramírez, 2014. "Evaluación de la contribución económica del sector de hidrocarburos colombiano frente a diversos escenarios de producción," INFORMES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 012501, FEDESARROLLO.
    22. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    23. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2016. "Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 822-837.
    24. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Why are crude oil prices high when global activity is weak?," MPRA Paper 43777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Carolina Gómez Cuenca, 2015. "Más Allá de un Boom de Recursos Naturales: Efectos de los Choques Petroleros en la Economía Colombiana," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 012565, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    26. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A, 2013. "Chinese monetary expansion and the U.S. economy: A note‎," MPRA Paper 46961, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Jobling, Andrew & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2017. "Price volatility and demand for oil: A comparative analysis of developed and developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 96-113.
    28. Soojin Jo, 2012. "The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on the Macroeconomy," Staff Working Papers 12-40, Bank of Canada.
    29. Bentley, Roger & Bentley, Yongmei, 2015. "Explaining the price of oil 1971–2014 : The need to use reliable data on oil discovery and to account for ‘mid-point’ peak," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 880-890.
    30. Bluedorn, John C. & Decressin, Jörg & Terrones, Marco E., 2016. "Do asset price drops foreshadow recessions?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 518-526.
    31. J.-B. Bernard & G. Cléaud, 2013. "Oil price: the nature of the shocks and the impact on the French economy," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2013-09, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
    32. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2012. "Allocating Commodities in Inflation Hedging Portfolios: A Core Driven Global Macro Strategy," MPRA Paper 42852, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Oct 2012.
    33. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Zaman, Khair Uz, 2014. "Are fluctuations in natural gas consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from time series and panel unit root tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 183-195.
    34. Aleksandar Zaklan & Jan Abrell & Anne Neumann, 2011. "Stationarity Changes in Long-Run Fossil Resource Prices: Evidence from Persistence Break Testing," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1152, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    35. Cumming, Douglas & Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "‘Cleantech’ venture capital around the world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 86-97.
    36. Kisswani, Khalid /M. & Nusair, Salah /A., 2012. "Non-linearities in the dynamics of oil prices," MPRA Paper 36586, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. PIERRET, Diane, 2013. "The systemic risk of energy markets," CORE Discussion Papers 2013018, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    38. Tapia, Jose, 2016. "Oil prices and the world business cycle: A causal investigation," MPRA Paper 68978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Xiaoyi Mu and Haichun Ye, 2015. "Small Trends and Big Cycles in Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).

  13. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," NBER Working Papers 16956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Trebesch & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2014. "ECB Interventions in Distressed Sovereign Debt Markets: The Case of Greek Bonds," CESifo Working Paper Series 4731, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Hess Chung & Jean‐Philippe Laforte & David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2012. "Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 47-82, 02.
    3. Michael E. Cahill & Stefania D’Amico & Canlin Li & John S. Sears, 2013. "Duration risk versus local supply channel in Treasury yields: evidence from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Apostolos Serletis & Khandokar Istiak & Periklis Gogas, 2013. "Interest Rates, Leverage, and Money," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 51-78, February.
    5. Deng, Kaihua & Todd, Walker, 2016. "Is the US quantitative easing more effective than China's? A second thought," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 11-23.
    6. Michael D. Bauer & Christopher J. Neely, 2012. "International channels of the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2012-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Kettemann, Andreas & Krogstrup, Signe, 2014. "Portfolio balance effects of the Swiss National Bank’s bond purchase program," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 132-149.
    8. Koeda, Junko, 2013. "Endogenous monetary policy shifts and the term structure: Evidence from Japanese government bond yields," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-188.
    9. Eksi, Ozan & Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur, 2017. "Unconventional monetary policy and the stock market’s reaction to Federal Reserve policy actions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 136-147.
    10. Michael Hachula & Michele Piffer & Malte Rieth, 2016. "Unconventional Monetary Policy, Fiscal Side Effects and Euro Area (Im)balances," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1596, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia & Giovannini, Alessandro, 2012. "Central Banks in Times of Crisis: The FED vs. the ECB," CEPS Papers 7160, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    12. Bernanke, Ben S., 2013. "Long-Term Interest Rates : a speech at the Annual Monetary/Macroeconomics Conference: The Past and Future of Monetary Policy, sponsored by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, Califor," Speech 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2014. "The effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data," Working Papers CASMEF 1406, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    14. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
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    153. Huberto M. Ennis & Alexander L. Wolman, 2012. "Large excess reserves in the U.S.: a view from the cross-section of banks," Working Paper 12-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    154. Matteo Falagiarda, 2014. "Evaluating quantitative easing: a DSGE approach," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(4), pages 302-327.
    155. Doran, David & Dunne, Peter & Monks, Allen & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2013. "Was the Securities Markets Programme Effective in Stabilizing Irish Sovereign Yields?," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
    156. Fischer, Stanley, 2015. "Conducting Monetary Policy with a Large Balance Sheet : a speech at the 2015 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, Sponsored by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, New York, New York, February 2," Speech 837, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    157. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Bermpei, Theodora, 2016. "What is the effect of unconventional monetary policy on bank performance?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 239-263.
    158. Fawley, Brett W. & Neely, Christopher J., 2013. "Four stories of quantitative easing," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 51-88.
    159. Engen, Eric M. & Laubach, Thomas & Reifschneider, David L., 2015. "The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    160. Carrera, César & Pérez-Forero, Fernando & Ramírez-Rondán, Nelson, 2014. "Effects of the U.S. quantitative easing on the Peruvian economy," Working Papers 2014-017, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    161. Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2012. "Dos objetivos, dos instrumentos: políticas monetaria y cambiaria en economías de mercados emergentes," Boletín, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 94-114, Abril-jun.
    162. António Afonso, & Manish K. Singh, 2016. "Is the supply of long-term debt independent of the term premia? Evidence from Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/11, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
    163. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2013. "The Simple Analytics of Monetary Policy: A Post-Crisis Approach," NBER Working Papers 18960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    164. Lorenzo Burlon & Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Inflation, financial conditions and non-standard monetary policy in a monetary union. A model-based evaluation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1015, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    165. Song, Zhaogang & Zhu, Haoxiang, 2014. "QE Auctions of Treasury Bonds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    166. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek & Vivian Z. Yue, 2016. "The response of sovereign bond yields to U.S. monetary policy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(2), pages 102-106, August.
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    171. Carol C. Bertaut & Laurie Pounder Demarco & Steven B. Kamin & Ralph W. Tryon, 2011. "ABS inflows to the United States and the global financial crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1028, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    172. Zhang, Ji, 2016. "Macroeconomic news and the real interest rates at the zero lower bound," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 172-185.
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  14. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Nonlinearities and the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Prices," NBER Working Papers 16186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul & Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher, 2013. "Oil price uncertainty, monetary policy and the macroeconomy: The Canadian perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 249-259.
    2. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," MPRA Paper 30140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Persistence and Cycles in Historical Oil Prices Data," Working Papers 201375, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Paresh K. Narayan & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Has Oil Pirce Predicted Stock Returns for Over a Century?," Working Papers 201446, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2014. "The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions," CFS Working Paper Series 460, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    6. Cavalcanti, Tiago & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in Brazil and in the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 475-486.
    7. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2011. "Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time out-of Sample Examination," Working Papers 0004, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    8. Alfred Haug & Syed Basher & Perry Sadorsky, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on exchange rates: A non-linear smooth-transition approach," EcoMod2016 9226, EcoMod.
    9. Maheu, John M & Song, Yong, 2017. "An Efficient Bayesian Approach to Multiple Structural Change in Multivariate Time Series," MPRA Paper 79211, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Diaz, Elena Maria & Molero, Juan Carlos & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2016. "Oil price volatility and stock returns in the G7 economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 417-430.
    11. Razmi, Fatemeh & Azali, M. & Chin, Lee & Shah Habibullah, Muzafar, 2016. "The role of monetary transmission channels in transmitting oil price shocks to prices in ASEAN-4 countries during pre- and post-global financial crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 581-591.
    12. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2015. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil under economic and statistical constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 599-608.
    13. Herrera, Ana María & Lagalo, Latika Gupta & Wada, Tatsuma, 2015. "Asymmetries in the response of economic activity to oil price increases and decreases?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 108-133.
    14. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan & Poon, Wai Ching & Westerlund, Joakim, 2014. "Do oil prices predict economic growth? New global evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 137-146.
    15. Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 365-377.
    16. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1220-1239.
    17. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Energy prices and exchange rates of the U.S. dollar: Further evidence from linear and nonlinear causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2289-2297.
    18. Brown, Stephen P.A. & Huntington, Hillard G., 2013. "Assessing the U.S. oil security premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 118-127.
    19. Molyneaux, Lynette & Brown, Colin & Wagner, Liam & Foster, John, 2016. "Measuring resilience in energy systems: Insights from a range of disciplines," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1068-1079.
    20. Luiggi Donayre & Neil A. Wilmot, 2016. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Canadian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 167-182.
    21. Chen, Hongtao & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhu, Yingming, 2016. "Oil price shocks and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1036-1048.
    22. Breitenfellner, Andreas & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Mayer, Philipp, 2015. "Energy inflation and house price corrections," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 109-116.
    23. Matthew K. Heun & João Santos & Paul E. Brockway & Randall Pruim & Tiago Domingos & Marco Sakai, 2017. "From Theory to Econometrics to Energy Policy: Cautionary Tales for Policymaking Using Aggregate Production Functions," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(2), pages 1-44, February.
    24. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti, 2015. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock returns in China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 23(4), pages 657-676, October.
    25. Thomas Chuffart, 2013. "Selection Criteria in Regime Switching Conditional Volatility Models," Working Papers halshs-00844413, HAL.
    26. Knetsch, Thomas A. & Molzahn, Alexander, 2009. "Supply-side effects of strong energy price hikes in German industry and transportation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    27. M-Ali Sotoudeh & Andrew C. Worthington, 2016. "A comparative analysis of monetary responses to global oil price changes: net oil producing vs. net oil consuming countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 623-640, October.
    28. Picciolo, Francesco & Papandreou, Andreas & Hubacek, Klaus & Ruzzenenti, Franco, 2017. "How crude oil prices shape the global division of labor," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 753-761.
    29. Renato Agurto & Fernando Fuentes & Carlos Garcia & Esteban Skoknic, 2013. "Power Generation and the Business Cycle: The Impact of Delaying Investment," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv290, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
    30. Li, Lei & Yin, Libo & Zhou, Yimin, 2016. "Exogenous shocks and the spillover effects between uncertainty and oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 224-234.
    31. Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2013. "Okun’s macroscope and the changing cyclicality of underlying margins of adjustment," Working Paper Series 2013-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    32. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2012. "Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," CEPR Discussion Papers 8980, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Razmi, Fatemeh & M., Azali & Chin, Lee & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2015. "The effects of oil price and US economy on Thailand's macroeconomy: The role of monetary transmission mechanism," MPRA Paper 69096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Libo Yin, 2016. "Does oil price respond to macroeconomic uncertainty? New evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 921-938, November.
    35. Herrera, Ana María & Karaki, Mohamad B., 2015. "The effects of oil price shocks on job reallocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 95-113.
    36. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Staff Working Papers 11-15, Bank of Canada.
    37. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Olusanya E. Olubusoye & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2015. "Time Series Analysis of Persistence in Crude Oil Price Volatility across Bull and Bear Regimes," Working Papers 201580, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    38. Naser, Hanan & Alaali, Fatema, 2015. "Can Oil Prices Help Predict US Stock Market Returns: An Evidence Using a DMA Approach," MPRA Paper 65295, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Jun 2015.
    39. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Oil prices and financial stress: A volatility spillover analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 278-288.
    40. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei NetŠunajev, 2014. "Disentangling Demand And Supply Shocks In The Crude Oil Market: How To Check Sign Restrictions In Structural Vars," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 479-496, 04.
    41. IWAISAKO Tokuo & NAKATA Hayato, 2016. "Impacts of Oil Shocks on Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Variables: A multi-country analysis," Discussion papers 16039, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    42. Fatemeh Razmi & Azali Mohamed & Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2017. "How Does Monetary Policy Affect Economic Vulnerability to Oil Price Shock as against US Economy Shock?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 544-550.
    43. Syed Abul, Basher & Alfred A, Haug & Perry, Sadorsky, 2015. "The impact of oil shocks on exchange rates: A Markov-switching approach," MPRA Paper 68232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2016. "Are fluctuations in oil consumption permanent or transitory? Evidence from linear and nonlinear unit root tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 262-270.
    45. LaGarda, Guillermo & Manzano, Osmel & Prat, Jordi, 2015. "The Legacy of the Crisis: Policy Options in a Favorable Environment," MPRA Paper 72151, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    46. Boroumand, Raphaël Homayoun & Goutte, Stéphane & Porcher, Simon & Porcher, Thomas, 2016. "Asymmetric evidence of gasoline price responses in France: A Markov-switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 467-476.
    47. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Wu, Wenfeng, 2016. "Disentangling the determinants of real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 363-373.
    48. Marc Gronwald, 2012. "Oil and the U.S. Macroeconomy: A Reinvestigation Using Rolling Impulse Responses," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    49. Catherine Hausman & Ryan Kellogg, 2015. "Welfare and Distributional Implications of Shale Gas," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 71-139.
    50. Arunanondchai, Panit & Senia, Mark C. & Capps, Oral Jr, 2017. "Can U.S. EIA Retail Gasoline Price Forecasts Be Improved Upon?," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252717, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    51. Kang, Wensheng & Perez de Gracia, Fernando & Ratti, Ronald A., 2017. "Oil price shocks, policy uncertainty, and stock returns of oil and gas corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 344-359.
    52. Alom, Fardous, 2011. "Economic Effects of Oil and Food Price Shocks in Asia and Pacific Countries: An Application of SVAR Model," 2011 Conference, August 25-26, 2011, Nelson, New Zealand 115346, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    53. Pönkä, Harri, 2015. "Real oil prices and the international sign predictability of stock returns," MPRA Paper 68330, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    54. An, Lian & Jin, Xiaoze & Ren, Xiaomei, 2014. "Are the macroeconomic effects of oil price shock symmetric?: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 217-228.
    55. Brown, Stephen P.A. & Huntington, Hillard G., 2015. "Evaluating U.S. oil security and import reliance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 9-22.
    56. Atems, Bebonchu & Kapper, Devin & Lam, Eddery, 2015. "Do exchange rates respond asymmetrically to shocks in the crude oil market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 227-238.
    57. Fernando J. Pérez Forero & Marco Vega, 2016. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-through: Evidence from Nonlinear SVARs," Working Papers 2016-63, Peruvian Economic Association.
    58. Francisco Craveiro Dias, 2013. "Oil price shocks and their effects on economic activity and prices: an application for Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    59. Liu, Li & Ma, Feng & Wang, Yudong, 2015. "Forecasting excess stock returns with crude oil market data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 316-324.
    60. Timilsina, Govinda R., 2015. "Oil prices and the global economy: A general equilibrium analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 669-675.
    61. Ju, Keyi & Su, Bin & Zhou, Dequn & Wu, Junmin & Liu, Lifan, 2016. "Macroeconomic performance of oil price shocks: Outlier evidence from nineteen major oil-related countries/regions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 325-332.
    62. Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Premachandra, I.M., 2016. "Information spillover dynamics of the energy futures market sector: A novel common factor approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 277-294.
    63. Christopher L. Foote & Jane Sneddon Little, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy in a changing world: a conference summary," Public Policy Discussion Paper 11-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    64. Venditti, Fabrizio, 2013. "From oil to consumer energy prices: How much asymmetry along the way?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 468-473.
    65. Syed Abul, Basher, 2014. "Stock markets and energy prices," MPRA Paper 53863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    66. Chou, Kuo-Wei & Tseng, Yi-Heng, 2016. "Oil prices, exchange rate, and the price asymmetry in the Taiwanese retail gasoline market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 733-741.
    67. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "Spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 209-220.
    68. Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George & Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Santamaria, Daniel, 2016. "Sentiment, mood and outbound tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 80-96.
    69. Fraas, Arthur G. & Harrington, Winston & Morgenstern, Richard D., 2013. "Cheaper Fuels for the Light-Duty Fleet: Opportunities and Barriers," Discussion Papers dp-13-28, Resources For the Future.
    70. IWAISAKO Tokuo & NAKATA Hayato, 2015. "Oil Price, Exchange Rate Shock, and the Japanese Economy," Discussion papers 15028, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    71. Madowitz, M. & Novan, K., 2013. "Gasoline taxes and revenue volatility: An application to California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 663-673.
    72. Valcarcel, Victor J. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Changes in the oil price-inflation pass-through," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 24-42.
    73. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2013. "Oil price shocks and trade imbalances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 78-96.
    74. Berk, Istemi & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2014. "Energy prices and economic growth in the long run: Theory and evidence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 228-235.
    75. Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2015. "Testing for asymmetric causality between U.S. equity returns and commodity futures returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 38-47.
    76. Andrzej Geise & Mariola Pilatowska, 2016. "Asymmetries in the relationship between economic activity and oil prices in the selected EU countries," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 16, pages 65-86.

  15. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott Borger, 2010. "Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 16412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael Ehrmann, 2015. "Targeting Inflation from Below: How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 213-249, September.
    2. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, "undated". "Analyzing the Taylor Rule with Wavelet Lenses," NIPE Working Papers 18/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    3. Linda S. Goldberg & Christian Grisse, 2013. "Time variation in asset price responses to macro announcements," Working Papers 2013-11, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Lapp, John S. & Pearce, Douglas K., 2012. "The impact of economic news on expected changes in monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 362-379.
    5. Fernanda Nechio & Carlos Carvalho, 2012. "Do People Understand Monetary Policy?," 2012 Meeting Papers 426, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2013. "Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Harvard Business School Working Papers 14-031, Harvard Business School, revised Jun 2015.
    7. Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2015. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero," Discussion Paper Series 1502, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    8. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2016. "Estimating the Taylor Rule in the Time-Frequency Domain," CEF.UP Working Papers 1404, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    9. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2016. "Changes in Federal Reserve preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 124-143.
    10. Ma, Yong & Li, Shushu, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of China's monetary policy transparency: A New Keynesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 236-248.

  16. James D. Hamilton & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2010. "Sources of Variation in Holding Returns for Fed Funds Futures Contracts," NBER Working Papers 15736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Ansgar Rannenberg & Sven Schreiber, 2014. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers - A comment," CDMA Working Paper Series 201404, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    2. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Ansgar Rannenberg & Sven Schreiber, 2017. "Reassessing the Impact of the US Fiscal Stimulus: The Role of the Monetary Policy Stance," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 12-31, April.
    3. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2012. "Estimating the Policy Rule from Money Market Rates when Target Rate Changes Are Lumpy," Staff Working Papers 12-41, Bank of Canada.
    4. Dick van Dijk & Robin L. Lumsdaine & Michel van der Wel, 2014. "Market Set-Up in Advance of Federal Reserve Policy Decisions," NBER Working Papers 19814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  17. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2017. "Forecasting GDP with global components: This time is different," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 153-173.
    2. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
    3. Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2013. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," Working Papers 02/2013, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    4. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolai V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," HSE Working papers WP BRP 122/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
    6. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2015. "Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 847-866, 08.
    7. Stekler, Herman & Symington, Hilary, 2016. "Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 559-570.
    8. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    9. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    10. Pitarakis, Jean-Yves & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2012. "Estimation and inference in threshold type regime switching models," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1204, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    11. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2012. "Extracting non-linear signals from several economic indicators," Working Papers 1202, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    13. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," Cahiers de recherche 1341, CIRPEE.
    14. Schreiber, Sven, 2013. "Forecasting business-cycle turning points with (relatively large) linear systems in real time," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79709, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2012. "Green Shoots and Double Dips in the Euro Area. A Real Time Measure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Lustig, Hanno & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2012. "Business cycle variation in the risk-return trade-off," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 35-49.
    17. Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John, 2015. "Recessions and Recoveries in New Zealand’s Post-Second World War Business Cycles," Working Paper Series 4688, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    18. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets," NBER Working Papers 16532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    20. Canova, Fabio & Schlaepfer, Alan, 2014. "Has the Euro-Mediterranean partnership affected Mediterranean business cycles?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10023, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combination Schemes for Turning Point Predictions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-123/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    22. Jorge Mario Uribe & Inés María Ulloa & Johanna Perea, 2015. "Reference financial cycle in Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 83, pages 33-62, Julio - D.
    23. Schreiber, Sven & Soldatenkova, Natalia, 2016. "Anticipating business-cycle turning points in real time using density forecasts from a VAR," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 166-187.
    24. Turgut Kisinbay & Chikako Baba, 2011. "Predicting Recessions; A New Approach for Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations," IMF Working Papers 11/235, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Foroni, Claudia & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "Markov-Switching Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Giusto, Andrea & Piger, Jeremy, 2017. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time with vector quantization," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 174-184.
    27. Shaun P Vahey & Elizabeth C Wakerly, 2013. "Moving towards probability forecasting," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 3-8 Bank for International Settlements.
    28. James D. Hamilton, 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers 21863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-36, CIRANO.
    30. Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Markov-switching MIDAS models," CEPR Discussion Papers 8234, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2012. "Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time," Working Papers 1205, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    32. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-152/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    33. L. Ferrara., 2011. "Forecasting the business cycle. Summary of the 8th International Institute of Forecasters workshop hosted by the Banque de France on 1-2 December 2011 in Paris," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 24, pages 135-144, Winter.
    34. Stan Hurn & Peter C B Phillips & Shuping Shi, 2015. "Change Detection and the Casual Impact of the Yield Curve," NCER Working Paper Series 107, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    35. Wildi, Marc, 2010. "Real-Time Signal Extraction: a Shift of Perspective/Extracción de señal en tiempo real: un cambio de perspectiva," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 497-518, Diciembre.
    36. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2015. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," Staff Working Papers 15-24, Bank of Canada.
    37. Ulrich Heilemann & Susanne Schnorr-Bäcker, 2016. "Could The Start Of The German Recession 2008-2009 Have Been Foreseen? Evidence From Real-Time Data," Working Papers 2016-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    38. Pirschel, Inske, 2016. "Forecasting euro area recessions in real-time," Kiel Working Papers 2020, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    39. Viv B. Hall & John McDermott, 2014. "Recessions and Recoveries in New Zealand's Post-Second World War Business Cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2014/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    40. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    41. Nyberg, Henri, 2013. "Predicting bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3351-3363.
    42. Charlotte Christiansen & Jonas Nygaard Eriksen & Stig V. Møller, 2013. "Forecasting US Recessions: The Role of Sentiments," CREATES Research Papers 2013-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    43. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    44. Paul Viefers, 2011. "Bayesian Inference for the Mixed-Frequency VAR Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1172, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    45. Thomas Theobald, 2012. "Real-time Markov Switching and Leading Indicators in Times of the Financial Crisis," IMK Working Paper 98-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    46. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2011. "Forecasting recessions using stall speeds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    47. Kai Carstensen & Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif & Maik H. Wolters, 2017. "Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle," CESifo Working Paper Series 6457, CESifo Group Munich.

  18. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "The propagation of regional recessions," Working Papers 2009-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2015. "Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 847-866, 08.
    2. Francis, Neville & Owyang, Michael T. & Savascin, Özge, 2012. "An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles," Working Papers 2012-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 10 Feb 2017.
    3. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases," Staff Working Papers 14-38, Bank of Canada.
    4. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    5. Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    6. Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Beck, Günter W., 2011. "On the importance of sectoral and regional shocks for price-setting," Working Paper Series 1334, European Central Bank.
    7. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Recessions, recoveries and regional resilience: Evidence on Italy," MPRA Paper 60297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Francis, Neville & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2013. "Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions," Working Papers 2013-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 01 Jan 2014.
    9. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "The Propagation of Industrial Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 14-48, Bank of Canada.
    10. Michael Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard Wall, 2011. "Discordant City Employment Cycles," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1525, European Regional Science Association.
    11. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2014. "Where Is An Oil Shock?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 169-185, 03.
    12. Brown, Jason, 2015. "The response of employment to changes in oil and gas exploration and drilling," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 57-81.
    13. Eduardo Bandrés & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017. "Regional business cycles across europe," Occasional Papers 1702, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    14. Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2015. "K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions—Does loan growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 82-94.
    15. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Andra C. Ghent & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities," Working Papers 2009-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    17. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2011. "K-state switching models with endogenous transition distributions," Working Papers 2011-13, Swiss National Bank.
    18. Hernández-Murillo, Rubén & Owyang, Michael T. & Rubio, Margarita, 2013. "Clustered housing cycles," Working Papers 2013-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 23 Sep 2015.
    19. Alessandra Fogli & Enoch Hill & Fabrizio Perri, 2012. "The Geography of the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 18447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Michael Artis & Marianne Sensier, 2010. "Tracking Unemployment in the North West Through Recession and Forecasting Recovery," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 136, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    21. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2015. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," Staff Working Papers 15-24, Bank of Canada.
    22. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Wall, Howard J., 2013. "The employment cycles of neighboring cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 177-185.
    24. Sungyup Chung, 2016. "Assessing the regional business cycle asymmetry in a multi-level structure framework: a study of the top 20 US MSAs," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 229-252, January.
    25. Smets, Frank & Beyer, Robert C. M., 2015. "Labour market adjustments in Europe and the US: How different?," Working Paper Series 1767, European Central Bank.
    26. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The evolution of regional economic interlinkages in Europe," Working Papers 1705, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    27. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2016. "The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of mixed-frequency series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1415-1441, December.
    28. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter," Staff Working Papers 17-13, Bank of Canada.
    29. Asako, Kazumi & Onodera, Takashi & Ueda, Atsuko, 2014. "An Analysis of Regional Business Cycles using Prefectural Composite Indexes in Japan," Discussion Paper Series 603, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    30. Kizys, Renatas & Paltalidis, Nikos & Vergos, Konstantinos, 2016. "The quest for banking stability in the euro area: The role of government interventions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 111-133.

  19. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," NBER Working Papers 15002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    1. Fan, Qinbin & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R., 2012. "U.S. industry-level returns and oil prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 112-128.
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K, 2013. "Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories," CEPR Discussion Papers 9297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Coglianese, John & Davis, Lucas W. & Kilian, Lutz & Stock, James H., 2015. "Anticipation, tax avoidance, and the price elasticity of gasoline demand," CFS Working Paper Series 503, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Pierre L Siklos, 2010. "Relative Price Shocks, Inflation Expectations, and the Role of Monetary Policy," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," MPRA Paper 30140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2011. "The Role of Time-Varying Price Elasticities in Accounting for Volatility Changes in the Crude Oil Market," Staff Working Papers 11-28, Bank of Canada.
    7. Tsvetanov, Daniel & Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil, 2016. "Bubbling over! The behaviour of oil futures along the yield curve," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 516-533.
    8. Aye, Goodness C. & Dadam, Vincent & Gupta, Rangan & Mamba, Bonginkosi, 2014. "Oil price uncertainty and manufacturing production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 41-47.
    9. Andriosopoulos, Kostas & Nomikos, Nikos, 2014. "Performance replication of the Spot Energy Index with optimal equity portfolio selection: Evidence from the UK, US and Brazilian markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 571-582.
    10. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2011. "Modelling oil price expectations: Evidence from survey data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 236-247, June.
    11. Goswami, Kishor & Choudhury, Hari K., 2015. "To grow or not to grow? Factors influencing the adoption of and continuation with Jatropha in North East India," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 627-638.
    12. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Tverberg, Gail E., 2013. "An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 542-551.
    13. Francesco Lippi & Andrea Nobili, 2012. "Oil And The Macroeconomy: A Quantitative Structural Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1059-1083, October.
    14. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Crude Oil Prices and Liquidity, the BRIC and G3 countries," MPRA Paper 44049, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Saraly Andrade de Sa & Julien Daubanes, 2014. "Limit-Pricing and the Un(Effectiveness) of the Carbon Tax," OxCarre Working Papers 136, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    16. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 72-86.
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    18. Buncic, Daniel & Piras, Gion Donat, 2014. "Heterogeneous Agents, the Financial Crisis and Exchange Rate Predictability," Economics Working Paper Series 1436, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, revised Oct 2015.
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    21. Auer, Benjamin R., 2015. "Does the choice of performance measure influence the evaluation of commodity investments?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 142-150.
    22. Kallis, Giorgos & Sager, Jalel, 2017. "Oil and the economy: A systematic review of the literature for ecological economists," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 561-571.
    23. Baghestani, Hamid, 2016. "Do gasoline prices asymmetrically affect US consumers’ economic outlook?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 247-252.
    24. Wendy Nyakabawo & Stephen M. Miller & Mehmet Balcilar & Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Temporal Causality between House Prices and Output in the U. S.: A Bootstrap Rolling-Window Approach," Working Papers 201329, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    25. Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2016. "Breaks or long range dependence in the energy futures volatility: Out-of-sample forecasting and VaR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 354-374.
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    35. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 238-252.
    36. Klotz, Philipp & Lin, Tsoyu Calvin & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2014. "Global commodity prices, economic activity and monetary policy: The relevance of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-9.
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    43. Shalini, Velappan & Prasanna, Krishna, 2016. "Impact of the financial crisis on Indian commodity markets: Structural breaks and volatility dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 40-57.
    44. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Regime Switching Model of US Crude Oil and Stock Market Prices: 1859 to 2013," Working papers 2014-26, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    45. Nowotarski, Jakub & Tomczyk, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2013. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 13-27.
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    48. Ayres, Robert U. & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M. & Lindenberger, Dietmar & Warr, Benjamin, 2013. "The underestimated contribution of energy to economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 79-88.
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  20. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott C. Borger, 2009. "The market-perceived monetary policy rule," International Finance Discussion Papers 982, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Sinclair, Tara M. & Gamber, Edward N. & Stekler, Herman & Reid, Elizabeth, 2012. "Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 309-314.
    2. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Nominal Interest Rates and the News," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 295-332, 03.
    3. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott Borger, 2010. "Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 16412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fernanda Nechio & Carlos Carvalho, 2012. "Do People Understand Monetary Policy?," 2012 Meeting Papers 426, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Charles L. Evans & Jonas D.M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 1-80.
    6. Nikolay Markov & Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "Estimating Taylor Rules for Switzerland: Evidence from 2000 to 2012," Working Papers 2013-08, Swiss National Bank.
    7. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2013. "Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Harvard Business School Working Papers 14-031, Harvard Business School, revised Jun 2015.
    8. Di Maggio, Marco, 2010. "The Political Economy of the Yield Curve," MPRA Paper 20697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. John Barrdear, 2015. "Towards a New Keynesian Theory of the Price Level," Discussion Papers 1509, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

  21. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Daily Monetary Policy Shocks and the Delayed Response of New Home Sales," NBER Working Papers 14223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Etienne, Xiaoli, 2015. "Financialization of Agricultural Commodity Markets: Do Financial Data Help to Forecast Agricultural Prices," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211626, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Laurent Ferrara & Pierre Guérin, 2015. "What Are The Macroeconomic Effects of High-Frequency Uncertainty Shocks?," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-12, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
    3. James D. Hamilton & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2010. "Sources of Variation in Holding Returns for Fed Funds Futures Contracts," NBER Working Papers 15736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 238-252.
    5. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 567-582, 06.
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    7. Hamilton, James D., 2008. "Daily monetary policy shocks and new home sales," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1171-1190, October.
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    1. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4626.
    2. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Uribe, Martín, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7264, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Bretschger, Lucas & Kappel, Vivien & Werner, Therese, 2012. "Market concentration and the likelihood of financial crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3336-3345.
    4. Tino Berger & Gerdie Everaert & Hauke Vierke, 2015. "Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the U.S. economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/903, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. Bezemer, Dirk J & Grydaki, Maria, 2012. "Mortgage Lending and the Great moderation: a multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 36356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jones, Paul M. & Olson, Eric, 2013. "The time-varying correlation between uncertainty, output, and inflation: Evidence from a DCC-GARCH model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 33-37.
    7. Oreste Tristani & Gianni Amisano, 2010. "A nonlinear DSGE model of the term structure with regime shifts," 2010 Meeting Papers 234, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Amna Nazeer & Wu Jun & Khuram Shafi & Liu Yan Yan, 2015. "Fluctuation of Yuan/Dollar: Time Series Co Integration Analysis," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 317-326, January.
    9. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2012. "Stock returns and inflation: Evidence from quantile regressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 283-286.
    10. Barrera, Carlos, 2010. "¿Respuesta asimétrica de precios domésticos de combustibles ante choques en el WTI?," Working Papers 2010-016, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    11. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk J., 2012. "The Role of Credit in Great Moderation: a Multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 39813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Dennis, Wesselbaum, 2012. "Stochastic Volatility in the U.S. Labor Market," MPRA Paper 43054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Nunley, John & Zietz, Joachim, 2008. "The U.S. Divorce Rate: The 1960s Surge Versus Its Long-Run Determinants," MPRA Paper 16317, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2008.
    14. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence," Working Papers hal-00952951, HAL.
    15. Barrera, Carlos R., 2011. "Impacto amplificador del ajuste de inventarios ante choques de demanda según especificaciones flexibles," Working Papers 2011-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

  24. James D. Hamilton, 2007. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 13112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Lahura, Erick, 2012. "Midiendo los efectos de la política monetaria a través de las expectativas de mercado," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 23, pages 39-52.
    2. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2014. "The Response of Stock Market Volatility to Futures-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Shocks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Rangel, José Gonzalo, 2011. "Macroeconomic news, announcements, and stock market jump intensity dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1263-1276, May.
    4. James D. Hamilton & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2010. "Sources of Variation in Holding Returns for Fed Funds Futures Contracts," NBER Working Papers 15736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Puriya Abbassi & Dieter Nautz & Christian Offermanns, 2010. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Monetary Policy Implementation in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 313-340, March.
    6. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2012. "The effects of Federal funds rate surprises on S&P 500 volatility and volatility risk premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 497-510.
    7. Berger, Helge & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Geography, skills or both: What explains Fed watchers' forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 420-437, September.
    8. Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2013. "Semiparametric estimates of monetary policy effects: string theory revisited," Working Paper Series 2013-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Dunbar, Kwamie & Amin, Abu S., 2015. "The nature and impact of the market forecasting errors in the Federal funds futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 174-192.
    10. Berger, Helge & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "Geography or skills: what explains Fed Wachters' forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?," Discussion Papers 2008/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    11. Coffinet, J., 2008. "La prévision des taux d’intérêt à partir de contrats futures : l’apport de variables économiques et financières," Working papers 193, Banque de France.
    12. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    13. Andrea Monticini & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting the intraday market price of money," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def010, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    14. Di Maggio, Marco, 2010. "The Political Economy of the Yield Curve," MPRA Paper 20697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Hibiki Ichiue & Tomonori Yuyama, 2007. "Biases in Monetary Policy Expectations Extracted From Fed Funds Futures and Surveys," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-15, Bank of Japan.
    16. Carlo Altavilla & Riccardo Costantini & Raffaella Giacomini, 2013. "Bond returns and market expectations," CeMMAP working papers CWP20/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    17. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2012. "Estimating the Policy Rule from Money Market Rates when Target Rate Changes Are Lumpy," Staff Working Papers 12-41, Bank of Canada.
    18. Gustavo Abarca & José Gonzalo Rangel & Guillermo Benavides, 2010. "Exchange Rate Market Expectations and Central Bank Policy: The case of the Mexican Peso-US Dollar from 2005-2009," Working Papers 2010-17, Banco de México.
    19. Tideman, T. Nicolaus & Plassmann, Florenz, 2010. "Pricing externalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 176-184, June.
    20. Ghent, Andra, 2007. "Why do markets react badly to good news? Evidence from Fed Funds Futures," MPRA Paper 1708, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  25. James D. Hamilton, 2007. "Assessing Monetary Policy Effects Using Daily Fed Funds Futures Contracts," NBER Working Papers 13569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Bruce Mizrach & Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "The microstructure of the U.S. treasury market," Working Papers 2007-052, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Thornton, Daniel L., 2008. "The daily and policy-relevant liquidity effects," Working Paper Series 984, European Central Bank.
    3. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2008. "The impact of structural breaks on the stability of the out-of-sample predictive content of financial variables for Canada's real GDP growth: An encompassing approach," Working Papers 0803, Brock University, Department of Economics.

  26. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Camacho, Maximo, 2011. "Markov-switching models and the unit root hypothesis in real US GDP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 161-164, August.
    2. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2008. "Deutsche Konjunktur: leichte Rezession absehbar," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28638, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. Paap, R. & Segers, R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2007. "Do leading indicators lead peaks more than troughs?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-08, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    4. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," NBER Working Papers 19469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Colonnello, Stefano, 2016. "Executive Compensation, Macroeconomic Conditions, and Cash Flow Cyclicality," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    6. Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2013. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," Working Papers 02/2013, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    7. Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," Working papers 239, Banque de France.
    8. Marcelle Chauvet & Zeynep Senyuz & Emre Yoldas, 2013. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-61, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Troy A. Davig, 2008. "Detecting recessions in the Great Moderation: a real-time analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-33.
    10. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Hogrefe, Jens & Boss, Alfred & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2008. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2008," Kiel Discussion Papers 456/457, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    11. Marcelle, Chauvet & Simon, Potter, 2007. "Monitoring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 15097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Apr 2009.
    12. Marcelle, Chauvet & Jeremy, Piger, 2010. "Employment and the business cycle," MPRA Paper 46642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Diagne, Youssoupha S & Sène, Serigne Moustapha, 2009. "La profitabilité des secteurs de l’économie sénégalaise
      [Profitability of economic sectors in Senegal]
      ," MPRA Paper 54921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Michael Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard Wall, 2011. "Discordant City Employment Cycles," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1525, European Regional Science Association.
    16. Munechika Katayama, "undated". "Declining Effects of Oil-Price Shocks," Departmental Working Papers 2009-02, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    17. Buss, Ginters, 2010. "A note on GDP now-/forecasting with dynamic versus static factor models along a business cycle," MPRA Paper 22147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Dovern, Jonas & Ziegler, Christina, 2008. "Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    19. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," Cahiers de recherche 1341, CIRPEE.
    20. Yang Lu & Ernesto Pastén, 2013. "Coordination of Expectations and the Informational Role of Policy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 706, Central Bank of Chile.
    21. Fontana, Alessandro & Corradin, Stefano, 2013. "House price cycles in Europe," Working Paper Series 1613, European Central Bank.
    22. Frédérick Demers & Ryan Macdonald, 2007. "The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models," Staff Working Papers 07-38, Bank of Canada.
    23. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
    24. Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," NBER Working Papers 12400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Gabriel Pérez-Quiros & Maximo Camacho & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green Shoots? Where, when and how?," Working Papers 2010-04, FEDEA.
    26. Michael J. Dueker & Martin Sola, 2008. "Multivariate Markov switching with weighted regime determination: giving France more weight than Finland," Working Papers 2008-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    27. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2006. "Estimating probabilities of recession in real time using GDP and GDI," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Michał Bernardelli & Monika Dędys, 2015. "Markov switching models in the analysis of business cycle synchronization," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 39, pages 213-228.
    29. knani, ramzi & fredj, ali, 2010. "Mondialisation et fluctuations des cycles économiques
      [globalisation and business cycle fluctuation]
      ," MPRA Paper 22755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Edward E. Leamer, 2008. "What's a Recession, Anyway?," NBER Working Papers 14221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Jacques Anas & Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2008. "A System For Dating And Detecting Turning Points In The Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 549-577, 09.
    32. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2014. "Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models," CAMA Working Papers 2014-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    33. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2010. "How better monetary statistics could have signaled the financial crisis," MPRA Paper 24721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Al-Anaswah, Nael & Wilfling, Bernd, 2011. "Identification of speculative bubbles using state-space models with Markov-switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1073-1086, May.
    36. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvetz & Danilo Leiva-Leonx, "undated". "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201313, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    37. Evangelia Papapetrou, 2013. "Oil prices and economic activity in Greece," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 385-397, November.
    38. Chen, Bin & Hong, Yongmiao, 2014. "A unified approach to validating univariate and multivariate conditional distribution models in time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 22-44.
    39. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    40. Dagum, Estela Bee, 2010. "Business Cycles and Current Economic Analysis/Los ciclos económicos y el análisis económico actual," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 577-594, Diciembre.
    41. Hui, Eddie Chi-Man & Wang, Ziyou, 2015. "Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 426(C), pages 72-87.
    42. Brevik, Frode & d'Addona, Stefano, 2013. "Is Ignorance Bliss? The Cost Of Business-Cycle Uncertainty," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(04), pages 728-746, June.
    43. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2010. "Business cycle monitoring with structural changes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 777-793, October.
    44. Kurov, Alexander, 2012. "What determines the stock market's reaction to monetary policy statements?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 175-187.
    45. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2011. "Forecasting recessions using stall speeds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    46. Willem Boshoff, 2005. "The properties of cycles in South African financial variables and their relation to the business cycle," Working Papers 02/2005, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    47. Silvia Palasca & Elisabeta Jaba, 2014. "Leading and Lagging Indicators Of the Economic Crisis," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(3), pages 31-47, September.
    48. Inna S. Lola, 2017. "The Statistical Measurement of Business Conditions for Small Entrepreneurs," HSE Working papers WP BRP 71/STI/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    49. Heij, C., 2007. "Improved forecasting with leading indicators: the principal covariate index," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-23, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

  27. James D. Hamilton, 2005. "What's Real About the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 11161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 874-890.
    2. Stöber, Jakob & Czado, Claudia, 2014. "Regime switches in the dependence structure of multidimensional financial data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 672-686.
    3. Benoit Bellone, 2005. "Classical Estimation of Multivariate Markov-Switching Models using MSVARlib," Econometrics 0508017, EconWPA.
    4. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 314-319.
    5. Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Commentary on "what's real about the business cycle?"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 453-458.
    6. Çakmaklı, Cem & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2195-2216.
    7. Thomas B. King, 2005. "Labor productivity and job-market flows: trends, cycles, and correlations," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Chai, Jian & Guo, Ju-E. & Meng, Lei & Wang, Shou-Yang, 2011. "Exploring the core factors and its dynamic effects on oil price: An application on path analysis and BVAR-TVP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8022-8036.
    9. Jammazi, Rania, 2012. "Cross dynamics of oil-stock interactions: A redundant wavelet analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 750-777.
    10. Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," NBER Working Papers 12400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Monika Kośko & Marta Kwiecień & Joanna Stempińska, 2016. "Przełącznikowe modele Markowa (MS) – charakterystyka i sposoby zastosowań w badaniach ekonomicznych," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 40, pages 479-490.
    12. James D. Hamilton, 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers 21863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufrénot & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Adjusting the U.S. Fiscal Policy for Asset Prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS Framework," NIPE Working Papers 20/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    14. Éric Dubois, 2006. "Présentation générale," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 1-9.
    15. Julie L. Hotchkiss & John C. Robertson, 2006. "Asymmetric labor force participation decisions over the business cycle: evidence from U.S. microdata," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    16. Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl, 2015. "Traffic-light Indications for the State of the Austrian Economy Based on the WIFO Business Cycle Survey," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(3), pages 175-183, March.
    17. Cross, Jamie & Poon, Aubrey, 2016. "Forecasting structural change and fat-tailed events in Australian macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-51.
    18. Spyros Andreopoulos, 2006. "The real interest rate, the real oil price, and US unemployment revisited," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/592, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    19. Yetman, James, 2011. "Exporting recessions: International links and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 12-14, January.
    20. Iulia LUPU, 2015. "European Stock Markets Correlations In A Markov Switching Framework," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 103-119, September.

  28. James D. Hamilton & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2004. "Normalization in econometrics," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

    Cited by:

    1. Driffill, John & Kenc, Turalay & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2004. "On Model Selection and Markov Switching: A Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Pierre Perron & Tatsuma Wada, 2015. "Measuring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks and Outliers: Applications to International Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-016, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    3. Thomas J. Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The conquest of South American inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Stephen Morris, 2014. "The Statistical Implications of Common Identifying Restrictions for DSGE Models," 2014 Meeting Papers 738, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Thomas J. Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2004. "Shocks and government beliefs: the rise and fall of American inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    6. Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Revisiting the predictability of bond risk premia," Working Papers 2009-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2014. "K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions – Does credit growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?," Working Papers 14.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    8. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2016. "Structural analysis with Multivariate Autoregressive Index models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 332-348.
    9. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
    10. Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Lars Stentoft, 2009. "Bayesian Option Pricing Using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models," CREATES Research Papers 2009-07, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Markov-Switching Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Application," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 69, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2009. "Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Structural vector autoregressions: theory of identification and algorithms for inference," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    14. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Wu, Hongwei & Zha, Tao, 2016. "Striated Metropolis–Hastings sampler for high-dimensional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 406-420.
    15. Lanne, Markku, 2002. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Research Discussion Papers 21/2002, Bank of Finland.
    16. Bauwens, L. & Hafner, C.M. & Rombouts, J.V.K., 2007. "Multivariate mixed normal conditional heteroskedasticity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3551-3566, April.
    17. Yoon, Gawon, 2015. "Locating change-points in Hodrick–Prescott trends with an application to US real GDP: A generalized unobserved components model approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 136-141.
    18. Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald MacDonald, 2011. "Realised and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," Working Papers 2011_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    19. Zheng, Yuhua & Luo, Dongkun, 2013. "Industrial structure and oil consumption growth path of China: Empirical evidence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 336-343.
    20. Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2015. "K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions—Does loan growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 82-94.
    21. Xiaochun Liu, 2016. "Markov switching quantile autoregression," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 70(4), pages 356-395, November.
    22. Ai Deng & Pierre Perron, 2006. "A comparison of alternative asymptotic frameworks to analyse a structural change in a linear time trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 423-447, November.
    23. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2011. "K-state switching models with endogenous transition distributions," Working Papers 2011-13, Swiss National Bank.
    24. ROMBOUTS, Jeroen V. K. & STENTOFT, Lars, 2010. "Option pricing with asymmetric heteroskedastic normal mixture models," CORE Discussion Papers 2010049, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    25. George Monokroussos, 2006. "Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and U.S. Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 06-02, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    26. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2012. "Confronting model misspecification in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 167-184.
    27. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Likelihood preserving normalization in multiple equation models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 329-347, June.
    28. Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2004. "How Well Do Markov Switching Models Describe Actual Business Cycles? The Case of Synchronization," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n09, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    29. Jean-Marie Dufour & Alain Trognon & Purevdorj Tuvaandorj, 2015. "Invariant tests based on M-estimators, estimating functions, and the generalized method of moments," CIRANO Working Papers 2015s-27, CIRANO.
    30. Christopher A. Sims & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    31. Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy & Startz, Richard, 2008. "Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 263-273, April.
    32. B. D. McCullough & H. D. Vinod, 2004. "Verifying the Solution from a Nonlinear Solver: A Case Study: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 391-396, March.
    33. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2009. "Let's take a break: Trends and cycles in US real GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 749-765, September.
    34. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "MCMC method for Markov mixture simultaneous-equation models: a note," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    35. Tatsuma Wada & Pierre Perron, 2005. "An Alternative Trend-Cycle Decomposition using a State Space Model with Mixtures of Normals: Specifications and Applications to International Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-44, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    36. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    37. Ángel Guillén & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2014. "Trend-cycle decomposition for Peruvian GDP: application of an alternative method," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-44, December.
    38. Morris, Stephen D., 2017. "DSGE pileups," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 56-86.
    39. Tatsuma Wada & Pierre Perron, 2006. "State Space Model with Mixtures of Normals: Specifications and Applications to International Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-029, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    40. Radu Titus MARINESCU & Aurelian DIACONU & Alexandru BADIU & Alexandru BADIU, 2016. "Analyzing the correlation between GDP and import using a statistical-econometric model," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(10), pages 98-102, October.
    41. Stéphane Lhuissier, 2015. "The Regime-switching volatility of Euro Area Business Cycles," Working Papers 2015-22, CEPII research center.
    42. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    43. Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Luminita Madalina CALOTA, 2016. "Statistical-econometric model used in performance analysis of the company," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(10), pages 33-40, October.
    44. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Wu, Hongwei & Zha, Tao, 2014. "The Dynamic Striated Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for High-Dimensional Models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    45. Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2004. "Identification and normalization in Markov switching models of "business cycles"," Research Working Paper RWP 04-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    46. A. Nazif Çatik & A. Özlem Önder, 2011. "Inflationary Effects of Oil Prices in Turkey: A Regime-Switching Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(5), pages 125-140, September.

  29. Michael C. Davis & James D. Hamilton, 2003. "Why Are Prices Sticky? The Dynamics of Wholesale Gasoline Prices," NBER Working Papers 9741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Mikael Carlsson & Oskar Nordstrom Skans, 2012. "Evaluating Microfoundations for Aggregate Price Rigidities: Evidence from Matched Firm-Level Data on Product Prices and Unit Labor Cost," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1571-1595, June.
    2. Douglas D. Davis & Oleg Korenok, 2005. "Posted - Offer Markets In Near Continuous Time: an Experimental Investigation," Working Papers 0504, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics, revised 2007.
    3. Daniel Levy & Andrew Young, 2004. ""The Real Thing:" Nominal Price Rigidity of the Nickel Coke, 1886-1959," Emory Economics 0405, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
    4. Magda E. Kandil, 2014. "Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 14/67, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Michael C. Davis, 2007. "The dynamics of daily retail gasoline prices," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 713-722.
    6. Emi Nakamura & Dawit Zerom, 2009. "Accounting for Incomplete Pass-Through," NBER Working Papers 15255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Levy, Daniel & Lee, Dongwon & Chen, Haipeng (Allan) & Kauffman, Robert & Bergen, Mark, 2007. "Price Points and Price Rigidity," MPRA Paper 1472, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Dongfeng Chang & Apostolos Serletis, "undated". "Oil, Uncertainty, and Gasoline Prices," Working Papers 2015-02, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 20 Jan 2015.
    9. Carl R. Gwin & David D. Van Hoose, 2008. "Disaggregate Evidence On Price Stickiness And Implications For Macro Models," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 561-575, October.
    10. Li, Shanjun & Linn, Joshua & Muehlegger, Erich, 2012. "Gasoline Taxes and Consumer Behavior," Working Paper Series rwp12-006, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    11. Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2007. "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does It Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," Discussion Papers 07-007, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    12. Erwan Gautier, 2009. "Les ajustements microéconomiques des prix : une synthèse des modèles théoriques et résultats empiriques," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 119(3), pages 323-372.
    13. Craigwell, Roland & Moore, Winston & Worrell, DeLisle, 2011. "Does Consumer Price Rigidity Exist in Barbados?," MPRA Paper 40928, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jose de Gregorio & Oscar Landerretche & Christopher Neilson, 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 155-208, January.
    15. Erich J. Muehlegger, 2004. "Gasoline Price Spikes and Regional Gasoline Content Regulations - A Structural Approach," Working Papers 0421, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
    16. Andrew T. Young & Alexander K. Blue, 2007. "Retail prices during a change in monetary regimes: evidence from Sears, Roebuck catalogs, 1938-1951," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 763-775.
    17. Rahman, Sajjadur, 2016. "Another perspective on gasoline price responses to crude oil price changes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 10-18.
    18. Emmanuel Dhyne & Catherine Fuss & Hashem Pesaran & Patrick Sevestre, 2006. "Lumpy price adjustments : a microeconometric analysis," Working Paper Research 100, National Bank of Belgium.
    19. Daniel Levy & Sourav Ray & Haipeng (Allan) Chen & Mark Bergen, 2007. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment in the Small," Emory Economics 0703, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
    20. Casey B. Mulligan, 2010. "Simple Analytics and Empirics of the Government Spending Multiplier and Other "Keynesian" Paradoxes," NBER Working Papers 15800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Claire Loupias & Patrick Sevestre, 2013. "Costs, Demand, and Producer Price Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 315-327, March.
    22. Erwan Gautier & Ronan Le Saout, 2017. "L’ajustement microéconomique des prix des carburants en France," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(1), pages 1-24.
    23. Grasso, Margherita & Manera, Matteo, 2007. "Asymmetric error correction models for the oil-gasoline price relationship," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 156-177, January.
    24. Grammig, Joachim & Kehrle, Kerstin, 2008. "A new marked point process model for the federal funds rate target: Methodology and forecast evaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2370-2396, July.
    25. Peneva, Ekaterina, 2011. "Some evidence on factor intensity and price rigidity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1652-1658, October.
    26. Erwan Gautier & Ronan Le Saout, 2012. "The Dynamics of Gasoline Prices: Evidence from Daily French Micro Data," Working Papers hal-00759095, HAL.
    27. Christopher Douglas & Ana María Herrera, 2010. "Why are gasoline prices sticky? A test of alternative models of price adjustment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 903-928.
    28. Carlsson, Mikael, 2014. "Selection Effects in Producer-Price Setting," Working Paper Series 290, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    29. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2016. "Asymmetric oil product pricing in India: Evidence from a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 314-328.
    30. Jordi Perdiguero-García, 2010. "“Symmetric or asymmetric gasoline prices? A metaanalysis approach”," IREA Working Papers 201013, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2010.
    31. Mandal, Kumarjit & Bhattacharyya, Indranil & Bhoi, Binod B., 2012. "Is the oil price pass-through in India any different?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 832-848.
    32. Karagiannis, Stelios & Panagopoulos, Yannis & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2015. "Are unleaded gasoline and diesel price adjustments symmetric? A comparison of the four largest EU retail fuel markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 281-291.
    33. Takayuki Mizuno & Makoto Nirei & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2010. "Closely Competing Firms and Price Adjustment: Some Findings from an Online Marketplace," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(4), pages 673-696, December.
    34. Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. Liu, Ming-Hua & Margaritis, Dimitris & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2010. "Is there an asymmetry in the response of diesel and petrol prices to crude oil price changes? Evidence from New Zealand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 926-932, July.
    36. Balaguer, Jacint & Ripollés, Jordi, 2012. "Testing for price response asymmetries in the Spanish fuel market. New evidence from daily data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2066-2071.
    37. Nicoletta Batini & Eugen Tereanu, 2010. "Inflation targeting during asset and commodity price booms," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 15-35, Spring.
    38. Alexander L. Wolman, 2000. "The frequency and costs of individual price adjustments," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-22.
    39. Sara Ellison & Christopher M. Snyder, 2014. "An Empirical Study of Pricing Strategies in an Online Market with High-Frequency Price Information," CESifo Working Paper Series 4655, CESifo Group Munich.
    40. James Yetman, 2007. "Explaining hump-shaped inflation responses to monetary policy shocks," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 605-617.
    41. Arto Kovanen, 2006. "Why Do Prices in Sierra Leone Change So Often? A Case Study Using Micro-level Price Data," IMF Working Papers 06/53, International Monetary Fund.
    42. Kilian, Lutz, 2008. "Why Does Gasoline Cost so Much? A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6919, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    43. Mirza, Faisal Mehmood & Bergland, Olvar, 2012. "Pass-through of wholesale price to the end user retail price in the Norwegian electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2003-2012.
    44. Nuno Alves, 2004. "A Flexible View on Prices," Working Papers w200406, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    45. Leon Bettendorf & Stephanie van der Geest & Gerard Kuper, 2005. "Do Daily Retail Gasoline Prices adjust Asymmetrically?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-040/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    46. Shanjun Li & Christopher Timmins & Roger H. von Haefen, 2009. "How Do Gasoline Prices Affect Fleet Fuel Economy?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 113-137, August.
    47. Ekaterina V. Peneva, 2009. "Factor intensity and price rigidity: evidence and theory," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    48. Sara Ellison & Christopher M. Snyder & Hongkai Zhang, 2016. "Costs of Managerial Attention and Activity as a Source of Sticky Prices: Structural Estimates from an Online Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 6285, CESifo Group Munich.
    49. Douglas, Christopher C. & Herrera, Ana María, 2014. "Dynamic pricing and asymmetries in retail gasoline markets: What can they tell us about price stickiness?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 247-252.
    50. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2013. "Do petrol prices rise faster than they fall when the market shows significant disequilibria?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 66-80.
    51. Nicoletta Batini & Eugen Tereanu, 2009. "“What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise and Drop Fast?”," IMF Working Papers 09/101, International Monetary Fund.
    52. Alderighi, Marco & Baudino, Marco, 2015. "The pricing behavior of Italian gas stations: Some evidence from the Cuneo retail fuel market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 33-46.

  30. Herrera, Ana Maria & Hamilton, James D., 2001. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4qp0p0v5, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2011. "Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time out-of Sample Examination," Working Papers 0004, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    2. Li, Qiming & Cheng, Ke & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2017. "Response pattern of stock returns to international oil price shocks: From the perspective of China’s oil industrial chain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1821-1831.
    3. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral & McMahon, Sébastien, 2008. "Oil Prices: Heavy Tails, Mean Reversion and the Convenience Yield," Cahiers de recherche 0801, GREEN.
    4. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    5. Jose de Gregorio & Oscar Landerretche & Christopher Neilson, 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 155-208, January.
    6. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy of Nigeria: A Non-linear Approach," MPRA Paper 18726, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2009.
    7. FRIAS-PINEDO, Isidro, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks And The Business Cycle In Spain: Is The 2008 Financial Crisis Different?," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(2), pages 15-26.
    8. Woon Gyu Choi & Yi Wen, 2010. "Dissecting Taylor Rules in a Structural VAR," IMF Working Papers 10/20, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2011. "Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices," Documentos de Trabajo 406, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    10. Ahmad R. Jalali-Naini & Mehdi Asali, 2004. "Cyclical behaviour and shock-persistence: crude oil prices," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 28(2), pages 107-131, 06.
    11. Mardi Dungey, 2002. "International Shocks and the Role of Domestic Policy in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 5(2), pages 143-163, June.
    12. Hernandez Martinez, Fernando, 2009. "Efectos del incremento del precio del petróleo en la economía española: Análisis de cointegración y de la política monetaria mediante reglas de Taylor
      [Oil price shocks and the spanish economy: Coi
      ," MPRA Paper 18056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Lescaroux, François, 2008. "Une revue interprétée des élasticités entre le PIB et le prix du pétrole," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 84(4), pages 415-447, Décembre.
    14. Anderson, Richard G. & Binner, Jane M. & Schmidt, Vincent A., 2012. "Connectionist-based rules describing the pass-through of individual goods prices into trend inflation in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 174-177.
    15. Mandal, Kumarjit & Bhattacharyya, Indranil & Bhoi, Binod B., 2012. "Is the oil price pass-through in India any different?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 832-848.
    16. Casassus, Jaime & Ceballos, Diego & Higuera, Freddy, 2010. "Correlation structure between inflation and oil futures returns: An equilibrium approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 301-310, December.
    17. Yang, Lucun, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of Current Account Determinants in Emerging Asian Economies," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/10, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    18. Virjinia Jeliazkova, 2010. "Effects of the Dynamics of the Oil Price – Theoretical and Empirical Bases," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 127-165.
    19. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Oyekola, Olayinka, 2015. "Oil Prices and the Dynamics of Output and Real Exchange Rate," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

  31. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Fan, Qinbin & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R., 2012. "U.S. industry-level returns and oil prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 112-128.
    2. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 118-125.
    3. Imran Shah, 2012. "Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/626, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    4. Joseph H. Davis & Christopher Hanes & Paul W. Rhode, 2009. "Harvests and Business Cycles in Nineteenth-Century America," NBER Working Papers 14686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Wu, Wen-Chieh & Cheng, Hui-Pei, 2010. "Symmetric mortality and asymmetric suicide cycles," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 1974-1981, June.
    6. Carlino, Gerald A. & Inman, Robert P., 2013. "Local deficits and local jobs: Can US states stabilize their own economies?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 517-530.
    7. Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul & Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher, 2013. "Oil price uncertainty, monetary policy and the macroeconomy: The Canadian perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 249-259.
    8. Shalizi, Zmarak, 2007. "Energy and emissions : local and global effects of the rise of China and India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4209, The World Bank.
    9. Antonella Cavallo & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Oil Price and Euro-area Shocks on CEECs Business Cycles," Department of Economics 0111, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    10. Chin Wen Cheong & Ng Sew Lai & Nurul Afidah Mohmad Yusof & Khor Chia Ying, 2012. "Asymmetric Fractionally Integrated Volatility Modelling of Asian Equity Markets under the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 10(1), pages 70-84, January.
    11. Mihaela NICOLAU, 2010. "Financial Markets Interactions between Economic Theory and Practice," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 27-36.
    12. Michael Aucott & Charles Hall, 2014. "Does a Change in Price of Fuel Affect GDP Growth? An Examination of the U.S. Data from 1950–2013," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(10), pages 1-13, October.
    13. Chris Florakis & Gianluigi Giorgioni & Alexandros Kostakis & Costas Milas, 2012. "The Impact of Stock Market Illiquidity on Real UK GDP Growth," Working Paper Series 65_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    14. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," MPRA Paper 30140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Blaise Gnimassoun & Marc Joëts & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-35, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
    16. Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR," Working Papers 2002-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    17. Inoue,Tomoo & Kaya,Demet & Ohshige,Hitoshi, 2015. "The impact of China?s slowdown on the Asia Pacific region : an application of the GVAR model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7442, The World Bank.
    18. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian & Fatma Burcu Kiraz, 2009. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1331-1363, October.
    19. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 13221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Marc Joëts, 2012. "Mood-misattribution effect on energy markets: a biorhythm approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-24, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
    21. Thai-Ha Le & Youngho Chang, 2011. "Oil And Gold: Correlation Or Causation?," Working Papers 22, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
    22. Fang, Chung-Rou & You, Shih-Yi, 2014. "The impact of oil price shocks on the large emerging countries' stock prices: Evidence from China, India and Russia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 330-338.
    23. Khaled Guesmi & Nabila BOUKEF JLASSI & Ahmed Atil & Imen Haouet, 2016. "On the Influence of Oil Prices on Financial Variables," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2261-2274.
    24. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Feb 2017.
    25. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns: Implications for portfolio management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1387-1405.
    26. Muhammad Shahbaz & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Mohammad Iqbal Tahir, 2015. "Analyzing time-frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate in Pakistan through wavelets," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 690-704, April.
    27. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2012. "How Do Oil Shocks A¤ect the Structural Stability of Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/20, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    28. Rahman, Sajjadur & Serletis, Apostolos, 2012. "Oil price uncertainty and the Canadian economy: Evidence from a VARMA, GARCH-in-Mean, asymmetric BEKK model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 603-610.
    29. Huntington, Hillard, 2016. "The Historical “Roots” of U.S. Energy Price Shocks," MPRA Paper 74935, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
    31. José David Gallardo Ku & Arturo Leonardo Vásquez Cordano & Luis Alfonso Bendezú Medina, 2005. "La Problemática de los Precios de los Combustibles," Working Papers 11, OSINERGMIN, Oficina de Estudios Economicos.
    32. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald. A. & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2017. "Oil price shocks and policy uncertainty: New evidence on the effects of US and non-US oil production," Working Papers 2017-02, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    33. Yeh, Fang-Yu & Hu, Jin-Li & Lin, Cheng-Hsun, 2012. "Asymmetric impacts of international energy shocks on macroeconomic activities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 10-22.
    34. C. Baumeister & G. Peersman & I. Van Robays & -, 2009. "The Economic Consequences of Oil Shocks: Differences Across Countries and Time," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/630, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    35. Raphael Raduzzi & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "The Macroeconomics Outcome of Oil Shocks in the Small Eurozone Economies," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 127, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    36. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Panama; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 15/238, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Edith Skriner, 2008. "Forecasting Global Flows," FIW Working Paper series 009, FIW.
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    39. Demachi, Kazue, 2012. "The effect of crude oil price change and volatility on Nigerian economy," MPRA Paper 41413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Andrés González & Franz Hamann & Diego Rodríguez, 2016. "Macroprudential policies in a commodity exporting economy," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy, volume 86, pages 69-73 Bank for International Settlements.
    41. Keith R. Phillips & James Nordlund & Roberto Coronado, 2011. "Factors behind the convergence of economic performance across U.S. states," Working Papers 1108, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    42. Girijasankar Mallik, 2011. "Effect of inflation uncertainty, output uncertainty and oil price on inflation and growth in Australia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 414-429, September.
    43. Barnes, Michelle L. & Olivei, Giovanni P., 2014. "The forecasting power of consumer attitudes for consumer spending," Working Papers 14-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    44. F. Dilvin Taşkin & Efe Çağlar Çağlı & Umut Halaç, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on the volatility of the Turkish stock market," International Journal of Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23.
    45. Gupta, Kartick, 2016. "Oil price shocks, competition, and oil & gas stock returns — Global evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 140-153.
    46. John G. Fernald & Bharat Trehan, 2005. "Why hasn't the jump in oil prices led to a recession?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov18.
    47. Dongfeng Chang & Apostolos Serletis, "undated". "Oil, Uncertainty, and Gasoline Prices," Working Papers 2015-02, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 20 Jan 2015.
    48. Edelstein Paul & Kilian Lutz, 2007. "The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses about the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-41, November.
    49. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2013. "The high-frequency asymmetric response of stock returns to monetary policy for high oil price events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 166-176.
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