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Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments

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Abstract

The trilemma of international finance explains why interest rates in countries that fix their exchange rates and allow unfettered cross-border capital flows are largely outside the monetary authority’s control. Using historical panel-data since 1870 and using the trilemma mechanism to construct an external instrument for exogenous monetary policy fluctuations, we show that monetary interventions have very different causal impacts, and hence implied inflation-output trade-offs, according to whether: (1) the economy is operating above or below potential; (2) inflation is low, thereby bringing nominal rates closer to the zero lower bound; and (3) there is a credit boom in mortgage markets. We use several adjustments to account for potential spillover effects including a novel control function approach. The results have important implications for monetary policy.

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  • Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2018. "Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments," Working Paper Series 2017-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2017-02
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2017-02
    Note: First published 1/13/2017 as "Large and State-Dependent Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments ", FRBSF Working Paper 2017-02. This new version published 5/7/2018 as "The Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments" (FRBSF Working Paper 2017-02).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international finance; exchange rates; cross-border capital flows; trilemma mechanism; monetary interventions; historical panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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