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Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Angrist, Joshua D.

    (MIT)

  • Jordà, Òscar

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

  • Kuersteiner, Guido M.

    (Georgetown University)

Abstract

We develop flexible semiparametric time series methods that are then used to assess the causal effect of monetary policy interventions on macroeconomic aggregates. Our estimator captures the average causal response to discrete policy interventions in a macro-dynamic setting, without the need for assumptions about the process generating macroeconomic outcomes. The proposed procedure, based on propensity score weighting, easily accommodates asymmetric and nonlinear responses. Application of this estimator to the effects of monetary restraint shows the Fed to be an effective inflation fighter. Our estimates of the effects of monetary accommodation, however, suggest the Federal Reserve’s ability to stimulate real economic activity is more modest. Estimates for recent financial crisis years are similar to those for the earlier, pre-crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • Angrist, Joshua D. & Jordà, Òscar & Kuersteiner, Guido M., 2013. "Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited," Working Paper Series 2013-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2013-24
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2013-24
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland, 2015. "Capital-flow management measures: What are they good for?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 76-97.
    2. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 219-255, February.
    3. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Smith, Ron P., 2016. "Counterfactual analysis in macroeconometrics: An empirical investigation into the effects of quantitative easing," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 262-280.
    4. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    5. Silvana Tenreyro & Gregory Thwaites, 2016. "Pushing on a String: US Monetary Policy Is Less Powerful in Recessions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 43-74, October.
    6. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    7. David R Baqaee, 2014. "Asymmetric In?ation Expectations, Downward Rigidity of Wages,and Asymmetric Business Cycles," Working Paper 139681, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2014. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," NBER Working Papers 20004, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "What drives the short-run costs of fiscal consolidation? Evidence from OECD countries," BIS Working Papers 553, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Kristin J Forbes & Michael W Klein, 2015. "Pick Your Poison: The Choices and Consequences of Policy Responses to Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 197-237, May.
    11. Moritz Schularick & Ilhyock Shim, 2017. "Household credit in Asia-Pacific," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial systems and the real economy, volume 91, pages 129-144 Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Bahaj, Saleem & Malherbe, Frédéric, 2016. "A positive analysis of bank behaviour under capital requirements," CEPR Discussion Papers 11607, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Kristin Forbes & Marcel Fratzscher & Roland Straub, 2013. "Capital Controls and Macroprudential Measures: What Are They Good For?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1343, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Aaron Mehrotra & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2018. "Residential investment and economic activity: evidence from the past five decades," BIS Working Papers 726, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Barnichon, Regis & Matthes, Christian, 2014. "Gaussian Mixture Approximations of Impulse Responses and the Nonlinear Effects of Monetary Shocks," Working Paper 16-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, revised 01 Jun 2016.
    16. Cafora, Alfonso & Romano, Antonio Angelo & Ronghi, Monica & Giuseppe, Scandurra, 2017. "Substituting fossil energy sources: the role of the climate funds and effects on the economic growth," MPRA Paper 82373, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary; policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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