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The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy: A new measure for the United Kingdom

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  • Hürtgen, Patrick
  • Cloyne, James

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of monetary policy on the UK economy based on a new, extensive real-time forecast data set. Employing the Romer Romer identification approach we first construct a new measure of monetary policy innovations for the UK economy. We find that a one percentage point increase in the policy rate reduces output by up to 0.6 per cent and inflation by up to 1.0 percentage point after two to three years. Our approach resolves the price puzzle for the UK and we show that forecasts are crucial for this result. Finally, we show that the response of policy after the initial innovation is crucial for interpreting estimates of the effect of monetary policy. We can then reconcile differences across empirical specifications, with the wider VAR literature and between our UK results and the larger narrative estimates for the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Hürtgen, Patrick & Cloyne, James, 2014. "The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy: A new measure for the United Kingdom," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100304, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc14:100304
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    17. Olivier Coibion, 2012. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-32, April.
    18. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    19. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations and The Price Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1262-1283, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabor Pinter, 2018. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Risk Premia," Discussion Papers 1812, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    2. repec:lrc:lareco:v:5:y:2017:i:5:p:12-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2015. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Discussion Papers 1711, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Feb 2017.
    4. Green, Georgina, 2018. "Monetary policy spillovers in the first age of financial globalisation: a narrative VAR approach 1884–1913," Bank of England working papers 718, Bank of England.
    5. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2018. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," Discussion Papers 1815, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    6. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2015. "Unsurprising Shocks: Information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmission," Discussion Papers 1613, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Apr 2016.
    7. Hetzel, Robert L., 2017. "What Remains of Milton Friedman's Monetarism?," Working Paper 17-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    8. Paul Hubert & Becky Maule, 2016. "Policy and Macro Signals as Inputs to Inflation Expectation Formation," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    9. David Aikman & Oliver Bush & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Monetary Versus Macroprudential Policies: Causal Impacts of Interest Rates and Credit Controls in the Era of the UK Radcliffe Report," NBER Working Papers 22380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Cantelmo, Alessandro & Melina, Giovanni, 2018. "Monetary policy and the relative price of durable goods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-48.
    11. Holtemöller, Oliver & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Drygalla, Andrej & Giesen, Sebastian & Hennecke, Peter & Kiesel, Konstantin & Loose, Brigitte & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Zeddies, Götz, 2015. "Ökonomische Wirksamkeit der Konjunktur stützenden finanzpolitischen Maßnahmen der Jahre 2008 und 2009. Forschungsvorhaben im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen," IWH Online 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    12. Cloyne, James & Ferreira, Clodomiro & Surico, Paolo, 2015. "Monetary Policy when Households have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism," CEPR Discussion Papers 11023, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Falck, Elisabeth & Hoffmann, Mathias & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2017. "Disagreement and monetary policy," Discussion Papers 29/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Matthias Neuenkirch, 2016. "An Unconventional Approach to Evaluate the Bank of England's Asset Purchase Program," Research Papers in Economics 2016-11, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    15. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2016. "Unsurprising shocks: information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmission," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86234, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2016. "What are the macroeconomic effects of asset purchases?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 81-93.
    17. Paolo Surico & Clodomiro Ferreira & James Cloyne, 2015. "Housing Debt and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," 2015 Meeting Papers 629, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Gregory Thwaites & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2016. "Monetary Policy Transmission in an Open Economy: New Data and Evidence from the United Kingdom," Discussion Papers 1612, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Aug 2016.
    19. Hoffmann, Mathias & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2016. "Inflation expectations, disagreement, and monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 59-63.
    20. James Bishop & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Anticipatory Monetary Policy and the 'Price Puzzle'," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2017-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    21. Forbes, Kristin & Kirkham, Lewis & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "A trendy approach to UK inflation dynamics," Discussion Papers 49, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    22. Elena Gerko & Hélène Rey, 2017. "Monetary Policy in the Capitals of Capital," NBER Working Papers 23651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. repec:eee:eecrev:v:98:y:2017:i:c:p:410-423 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2017. "The impact of monetary policy on inequality in the UK. An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 410-423.
    25. Lennard, Jason, 2018. "Did monetary policy matter? Narrative evidence from the classical gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 16-36.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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