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Gimme a Break! Identification and Estimation of the Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in the U.S

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  • Emanuele Bacchiocchi

    (Department of Economics, Business and Quantitative Methods (DEMM), University of Milan)

  • Efrem Castelnuovo

    () (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne; Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne; and Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova)

  • Luca Fanelli

    (Department of Statistical Sciences, School of Economics, Management and Statistics, University of Bologna)

Abstract

We employ a non-recursive identification scheme to identify the effects of a monetary policy shock in a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVARs) model for the U.S. post-WWII quarterly data. The identification of the shock is achieved via heteroskedasticity, and different on-impact macroeconomic responses are allowed for (but not imposed) in each volatility regime. We show that the impulse responses obtained with the suggested non-recursive identification scheme are quite similar to those conditional on a recursive VAR estimated with pre-1984 data. In contrast, recursive vs. non-recursive identification schemes return different short-run responses of output and investment during the Great Moderation. Robustness checks dealing with a different definition of investment, an alternative breakpoint, and federal funds futures rates as an indicator of the monetary policy stance are documented and discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Efrem Castelnuovo & Luca Fanelli, 2016. "Gimme a Break! Identification and Estimation of the Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in the U.S," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2016n31, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  • Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2016n31
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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2014. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0188, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    2. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2017. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A review of different volatility models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 2-18.
    3. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2014. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0188, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural break; recursive and non-recursive VARs; identification; monetary policy shocks; impulse responses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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