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Identification of structural vector autoregressions by stochastic volatility

Author

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  • Bertsche, Dominik

    (University of Konstanz)

  • Braun, Robin

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

We propose to exploit stochastic volatility for statistical identification of structural vector autoregressive models (SV-SVAR). We discuss full and partial identification of the model and develop efficient Expectation Maximization algorithms for Maximum Likelihood inference. Simulation evidence suggests that, compared to alternative models, the SV-SVAR works well in identifying structural parameters also under misspecification of the variance process. We apply the model to study the importance of oil supply shocks for driving oil prices. Since shocks identified by heteroskedasticity may not be economically meaningful, we exploit the framework to test instrumental variable restrictions which are overidentifying in the heteroskedastic model. Our findings suggest that conventional supply shocks are negligible drivers of oil prices, while news shocks about future supply account for almost all the variation.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertsche, Dominik & Braun, Robin, 2020. "Identification of structural vector autoregressions by stochastic volatility," Bank of England working papers 869, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0869
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    6. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2021. "Using time-varying volatility for identification in Vector Autoregressions: An application to endogenous uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 47-73.
    7. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    8. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei Netšunajev, 2018. "The Relation between Monetary Policy and the Stock Market in Europe," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-14, August.
    9. Sascha A. Keweloh & Mathias Klein & Jan Pruser, 2023. "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers by Combining Statistical Identification with Potentially Endogenous Proxies," Papers 2302.13066, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    10. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Structural Analysis of Vector Autoregressive Models," Papers 2312.06402, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    11. Thore Schlaak & Malte Rieth & Maximilian Podstawski, 2023. "Monetary policy, external instruments, and heteroskedasticity," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 161-200, January.
    12. Jinan Liu & Sajjadur Rahman & Apostolos Serletis, 2021. "Cryptocurrency shocks," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(2), pages 190-202, March.
    13. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Xuewen Yu, 2024. "Large Order-Invariant Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 825-837, April.
    14. Marek A. Dąbrowski & Łukasz Kwiatkowski & Justyna Wróblewska, 2020. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Variability in Central and Eastern European Countries: Evidence from Structural Bayesian MSH-VAR Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 12(4), pages 369-412, December.
    15. Alfan Mansur, 2023. "Simultaneous identification of fiscal and monetary policy shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 697-728, August.
    16. Wu, Ping & Koop, Gary, 2023. "Estimating the ordering of variables in a VAR using a Plackett–Luce prior," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    17. Braun, Robin, 2021. "The importance of supply and demand for oil prices: evidence from non-Gaussianity," Bank of England working papers 957, Bank of England.
    18. Daniel J Lewis, 2021. "Identifying Shocks via Time-Varying Volatility [First Order Autoregressive Processes and Strong Mixing]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 3086-3124.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural vector autoregression (SVAR); identification via heteroskedasticity; stochastic volatility; external instruments.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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