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The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States

  • Morten Ravn

    (University College London)

  • Karel Mertens

    (Cornell University)

This paper estimates the dynamic effects of changes in taxes in the United States. We dis- tinguish between the effects of changes in personal and corporate income taxes using a new narrative account of federal tax liability changes in these two tax components. We develop an estimator in which narratively identified tax changes are used as proxies for structural tax shocks and apply it to quarterly post WWII US data. We find that short run output effects of tax shocks are large and that it is important to distinguish between different types of taxes when considering their impact on the labor market and the major expenditure components.

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File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2012/paper_638.pdf
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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2012 Meeting Papers with number 638.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:638
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Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA

Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/
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  1. Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing," NBER Working Papers 15464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Working Paper Series 0196, European Central Bank.
  3. Morten O. Ravn & Saverio Simonelli, 2007. "Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States," CSEF Working Papers 182, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  4. Todd B. Walker & Eric M. Leeper & Susan S. Yang, 2012. "Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows," IMF Working Papers 12/153, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Karel Mertens & Morten Overgaard Ravn, 2011. "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 27-54, January.
  6. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 145-81, May.
  7. Valerie A. Ramey & Neville Francis, 2007. "Measures of Per Capita Hours and their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate," 2007 Meeting Papers 314, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O, 2012. "A Reconciliation of SVAR and Narrative Estimates of Tax Multipliers," CEPR Discussion Papers 8973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Dayanand S. Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2011. "Does Indivisible Labor Explain the Difference Between Micro and Macro Elasticities? A Meta-Analysis of Extensive Margin Elasticities," NBER Working Papers 16729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Christopher L. House & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2004. "Phased-In Tax Cuts and Economic Activity," Macroeconomics 0404009, EconWPA.
  12. Aviv Nevo & Adam M. Rosen, 2008. "Identification with Imperfect Instruments," NBER Working Papers 14434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
  14. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2011. "Foresight and Information Flows," NBER Working Papers 16951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Karel Mertens & MortenO. Ravn, 2010. "Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 393-413, 05.
  16. Jonas D. M. Fisher & Ryan Peters, 2009. "Using stock returns to identify government spending shocks," Working Paper Series WP-09-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  17. James Cloyne, 2011. "What are the Effects of Tax Changes in the United Kingdom? New Evidence from a Narrative Evaluation," CESifo Working Paper Series 3433, CESifo Group Munich.
  18. Roberto Perotti, 2011. "The Effects of Tax Shocks on Output: Not So Large, But Not Small Either," NBER Working Papers 16786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti & Antonella Trigari, 2013. "Taxes and the Labor Market," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.), Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 2, pages 27-58 Central Bank of Chile.
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