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Measuring Tax Multipliers: The Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs

In: Fiscal Policy (Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar, TAPES)

Author

Listed:
  • Carlo Favero
  • Francesco Giavazzi

Abstract

This paper argues in favor of empirical models built by including in fiscal VAR models structural shocks identified via the narrative method. We first show that "narrative" shocks are orthogonal to the relevant information set a fiscal VAR. We then derive impulse responses to these shocks. The use of narrative shocks does not require the inversion of the moving-average representation of a VAR for the identification of the relevant shocks. Therefore, within this framework, fiscal multipliers can be identified and estimated even when, in the presence of "fiscal foresight," the MA representation of the VARs is not invertible. (JEL C32, E62, H20, H62, H63)
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Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2010. "Measuring Tax Multipliers: The Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy (Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar, TAPES), pages 69-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13345
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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