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Fiscal News and Macroeconomic Volatility

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  • Born, Benjamin
  • Peter, Alexandra
  • Pfeifer, Johannes

Abstract

This paper analyzes the contribution of anticipated capital and labor tax shocks to business cycle volatility in an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model. While fiscal policy accounts for 12 to 20 percent of output variance at business cycle frequencies, the anticipated component hardly matters for explaining fluctuations of real variables. Anticipated capital tax shocks do explain a sizable part of inflation and interest rate fluctuations, accounting for between 5 and 15 percent of total variance. In line with earlier studies, news shocks in total account for 20 percent of output variance. Further decomposing this news effect, we find that it is mostly driven by stationary TFP and non-stationary investment-specific technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Born, Benjamin & Peter, Alexandra & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2011. "Fiscal News and Macroeconomic Volatility," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 08/2011, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bonedp:082011
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    Cited by:

    1. Dennis Wesselbaum, 2019. "Expectation shocks and fiscal rules," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 357-377, April.
    2. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    3. Troy Davig & Andrew Foerster, 2019. "Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(7), pages 1857-1887, October.
    4. Robert Dixon & Guay C. Lim, 2018. "Labor'S Share, The Firm'S Market Power, And Total Factor Productivity," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(4), pages 2058-2076, October.
    5. Ryan Chahrour & Kyle Jurado, 2018. "News or Noise? The Missing Link," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1702-1736, July.
    6. Born, Benjamin & Peter, Alexandra & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2013. "Fiscal news and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2582-2601.
    7. Karel Mertens & José Luis Montiel Olea, 2018. "Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 133(4), pages 1803-1884.
    8. Fève, Patrick & Kass-Hanna, Tannous & Pietrunti, Mario, 2016. "An analytical characterization of noisy fiscal policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 76-79.
    9. Rodriguez-Lopez, Jesus & Solis-Garcia, Mario, 2018. "Defense spending and fiscal multipliers: it's all in the variance," MPRA Paper 86911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Nancy Stokey, 2016. "Wait-and See: Investment Options under Policy Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 246-265, July.
    11. William Gatt, 2018. "Housing boom-bust cycles and asymmetric macroprudential policy," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    12. Kazutaka Kurasawa, 2018. "Forecasting US recession with the economic policy uncertainty indexes of policy categories," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 100-109.
    13. Masahiro Tanaka, 2015. "Measuring Political Budget Cycles: A Bayesian Semiparametric Assessment," Working Papers 1415, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    14. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2012. "Identifying News Shocks with Forecast Data," CAMA Working Papers 2012-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. R. Dixon & G.C. Lim, 2017. "Labor's Share, the Firm's Market Power and TFP," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2017n22, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    16. Nancy L. Stokey, 2013. "Wait-and-See: Investment Options under Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 19630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Ng, Eric C.Y. & Feng, Ning, 2016. "Housing market dynamics in a small open economy: Do external and news shocks matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 64-88.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anticipated Tax Shocks; Sources of Aggregate Fluctuations; Bayesian Estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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