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Monetary policy shocks: We got news!

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  • Gomes, Sandra
  • Iskrev, Nikolay
  • Mendicino, Caterina

Abstract

We assess the role of monetary policy news shocks in the context of a medium scale DSGE model estimated on US data. We estimate several versions of the model and find decisive evidence in favour of the inclusion of monetary policy news shocks over a two-quarter horizon. According to our results, monetary policy news shocks account for a non-negligible fraction of the variance of real variables, especially at shorter forecast horizons. Further, we document that the importance of monetary policy news shocks goes beyond what was observed in recent years. The historical importance of monetary policy news shocks dates back to the 1999–2006 period when the official FOMC statements provided information about both the current policy setting and the expected future policy path. We also show that adding monetary policy news shocks to the model does not lead to identification problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Gomes, Sandra & Iskrev, Nikolay & Mendicino, Caterina, 2017. "Monetary policy shocks: We got news!," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 108-128.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:108-128
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2016.10.010
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    Cited by:

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    2. Nadav Ben Zeev & Christopher Gunn & Hashmat Khan, 2020. "Monetary News Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1793-1820, October.
    3. Wang, Hao & Li, Ruimin & Wang, Xiaokun (Cara) & Shang, Pan, 2020. "Effect of on-street parking pricing policies on parking characteristics: A case study of Nanning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 65-78.
    4. Ashima Goyal & Abhishek Kumar, 2019. "News, noise and Indian business cycle," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-010, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    5. Kenichi Tamegawa, 2014. "A closed-form analysis of anticipated monetary policy," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 15(2), pages 155-161.
    6. Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2019. "Monetary news in the United States and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 79-90.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE models; Bayesian estimation; News shocks; Local identification; Business cycles; Forward guidance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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