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Monetary News Shocks

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Abstract

We pursue a novel empirical strategy to identify a monetary news shock in the U.S. economy. We use a monetary policy residual, along with other variables in a VAR, and identify a monetary news shock as the linear combination of reduced form innovations that is orthogonal to the current residual and that maximizes the sum of contributions to its forecast error variance over a finite horizon. Real GDP declines in a hump-shaped manner after a positive monetary news shock. This contraction in economic activity is accompanied by a fall in inflation and a rapid increase in the nominal interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Nadav Ben Zeev & Christopher M. Gunn & Hashmat Khan, 2015. "Monetary News Shocks," Carleton Economic Papers 15-02, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 17 Feb 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:15-02
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    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
    2. Gomes, Sandra & Iskrev, Nikolay & Mendicino, Caterina, 2017. "Monetary policy shocks: We got news!," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 108-128.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    4. Stefan Laséen & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2011. "Anticipated Alternative policy Rate Paths in Plicy Simulations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 1-35, September.
    5. Del Negro, Marco & Eusepi, Stefano & Giannoni, Marc & Sbordone, Argia M. & Tambalotti, Andrea & Cocci, Matthew & Hasegawa, Raiden B. & Linder, M. Henry, 2013. "The FRBNY DSGE model," Staff Reports 647, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Barsky, Robert B. & Sims, Eric R., 2011. "News shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 273-289.
    7. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    8. Nadav Ben Zeev & Hashmat Khan, 2015. "Investment‐Specific News Shocks and U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(7), pages 1443-1464, October.
    9. Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2016. "The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3133-3158, October.
    10. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    11. Harrison, Ricahrd, 2014. "Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86327, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Harrison, Richard, 2015. "Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 196-213.
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    14. Barakchian, S. Mahdi & Crowe, Christopher, 2013. "Monetary policy matters: Evidence from new shocks data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 950-966.
    15. Fabio Milani & John Treadwell, 2012. "The Effects of Monetary Policy “News” and “Surprises”," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1667-1692, December.
    16. Todd E. Clark, 2012. "Policy rules in macroeconomic forecasting models," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Oct.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gavin, William T. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Richter, Alexander & Throckmorton, Nathaniel, 2013. "The stimulative effect of forward guidance," Working Papers 2013-38, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 30 Apr 2014.
    2. repec:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/690242 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Kenza Benhima & Céline Poilly, 2017. "Do Misperceptions about Demand Matter? Theory and Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 17.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    4. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D. M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic Outcomes since the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 283-357.
    5. Pavel Kapinos, 2018. "Monetary Policy News and Systemic Risk at the Zero Lower Bound," 2018 Meeting Papers 1052, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. repec:bla:ecinqu:v:55:y:2017:i:4:p:1593-1624 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Paul Rudel & Peter Tillmann, 2018. "News Shock Spillovers: How the Euro Area Responds to Expected Fed Policy," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201832, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary news shocks; monetary policy residual; federal funds rate; forward guidance; new keynesian DSGE models;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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