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The Effects of Monetary Policy "News" and "Surprises"

  • Fabio Milani


    (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

  • John Treadwell


    (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

There is substantial agreement in the monetary policy literature over the effects of exogenous monetary policy shocks. The shocks that are investigated, however, almost exclusively represent unanticipated changes in policy, which surprise the private sector and which are typically found to have a delayed and sluggish effect on output. In this paper, we estimate a New Keynesian model that incorporates news about future policies to try to disentangle the anticipated and unanticipated components of policy shocks. The paper shows that the conventional estimates confound two distinct effects on output: an effect due to unanticipated or ìsurpriseî shocks, which is smaller and more short-lived than the response usually obtained in the literature, and a large, delayed, and persistent effect due to anticipated policy shocks or "news." News shocks play a larger role in influencing the business cycle than unanticipated policy shocks, although the overall fraction of economic fluctuations that can be attributed to monetary policy remains limited.

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Paper provided by University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 101109.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:irv:wpaper:101109
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  9. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," NBER Working Papers 10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  17. Belviso Francesco & Milani Fabio, 2006. "Structural Factor-Augmented VARs (SFAVARs) and the Effects of Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-46, December.
  18. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474.
  19. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2012. "The Quantitative Importance of News Shocks in Estimated DSGE Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1535-1561, December.
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  22. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2008. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002352, David K. Levine.
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