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The Effects of Monetary Policy "News" and "Surprises"

  • Fabio Milani

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

  • John Treadwell

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

There is substantial agreement in the monetary policy literature over the effects of exogenous monetary policy shocks. The shocks that are investigated, however, almost exclusively represent unanticipated changes in policy, which surprise the private sector and which are typically found to have a delayed and sluggish effect on output. In this paper, we estimate a New Keynesian model that incorporates news about future policies to try to disentangle the anticipated and unanticipated components of policy shocks. The paper shows that the conventional estimates confound two distinct effects on output: an effect due to unanticipated or ìsurpriseî shocks, which is smaller and more short-lived than the response usually obtained in the literature, and a large, delayed, and persistent effect due to anticipated policy shocks or "news." News shocks play a larger role in influencing the business cycle than unanticipated policy shocks, although the overall fraction of economic fluctuations that can be attributed to monetary policy remains limited.

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File URL: http://www.economics.uci.edu/files/docs/workingpapers/2010-11/milani-9.pdf
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Paper provided by University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 101109.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:irv:wpaper:101109
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  1. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central Bank Communication and Policy Effectiveness," NBER Working Papers 11898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
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  6. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 1038, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
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  13. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2009. "The Quantitative Importance of News Shocks in Estimated DSGE Models," Carleton Economic Papers 09-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 22 May 2012.
  14. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2009. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0921, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
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  25. Pietro Cova & Alessandro Rebucci & Akito Matsumoto & Massimiliano Pisani, 2008. "New Shocks, Exchange Rates and Equity Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/284, International Monetary Fund.
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