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(Un)anticipated monetary policy in a DSGE model with a shadow banking system

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  • Verona, Fabio
  • Martins, Manuel M. F.
  • Drumond, Inês

Abstract

Motivated by the U.S. events of the 2000s, we address whether a too low for too long interest rate policy may generate a boom-bust cycle. We simulate anticipated and unanticipated monetary policies in state-of-the-art DSGE models and in a model with bond financing via a shadow banking system, in which the bond spread is calibrated for normal and optimistic times. Our results suggest that the U.S. boom-bust was caused by the combination of (i) too low for too long interest rates, (ii) excessive optimism and (iii) a failure of agents to anticipate the extent of the abnormally favorable conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Verona, Fabio & Martins, Manuel M. F. & Drumond, Inês, 2012. "(Un)anticipated monetary policy in a DSGE model with a shadow banking system," IMFS Working Paper Series 56, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:imfswp:56
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE model; shadow banking system; too low for too long; boom-bust;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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