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(Un)anticipated Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with a Shadow Banking System

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  • F. Verona

    (Bank of Finland)

  • M. M. F. Martins

    (University of Porto, CEF.UP)

  • I. Drumond

    (DG-ECFIN, European Commission)

Abstract

Motivated by the U.S. events of the 2000s, we address whether a too low for too long interest rate policy may generate a boom-bust cycle. We simulate anticipated and unanticipated monetary policies in state-of-the-art DSGE models and in a model with bond financing via a shadow banking system, in which the bond spread is calibrated for normal and optimistic times. Our results suggest that the U.S. boom-bust was caused by the combination of (i) too low for too long interest rates, (ii) excessive optimism, and (iii) a failure of agents to anticipate the extent of the abnormally favorable conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • F. Verona & M. M. F. Martins & I. Drumond, 2013. "(Un)anticipated Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with a Shadow Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 78-124, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2013:q:3:a:3
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    Cited by:

    1. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2014. "Is there a threat of self-reinforcing deflation in the euro area? A view through the lens of the Phillips curve," Kiel Policy Brief 79, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Philipp Kirchner & Benjamin Schwanebeck, 2017. "Optimal Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Face of Shadow Banking," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201725, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Valentin Jouvanceau, 2016. "The Portfolio Rebalancing Channel of Quantitative Easing," Working Papers halshs-01349870, HAL.
    4. Burgert, Matthias & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2014. "Dealing with a liquidity trap when government debt matters: Optimal time-consistent monetary and fiscal policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 282-299.
    5. Verona, Fabio & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Drumond, Inês, 2017. "Financial shocks, financial stability, and optimal Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 187-207.
    6. Krug, Sebastian & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2016. "Shadow banking, financial regulation and animal spirits: An ACE approach," Economics Working Papers 2016-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    7. Fabio Verona & Juha Kilponen & Seppo Orjasniemi & Antti Ripatti, 2015. "Business Cycle Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy Through the Lens of the Aino Model - A Micro-Founded Small Open Economy DSGE Mo," EcoMod2015 8441, EcoMod.
    8. Kenichi Tamegawa, 2014. "A closed-form analysis of anticipated monetary policy," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 15(2), pages 155-161.
    9. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503181118 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Federico Lubello & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2017. "Capturing macroprudential regulation effectiveness: A DSGE approach with shadow intermediaries," BCL working papers 114, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    11. Patrick Fève & Olivier Pierrard, 2017. "Financial Regulation and Shadow Banking: A Small-Scale DSGE Perspective," BCL working papers 111, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    12. Cogan, John F. & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2013. "Fiscal consolidation strategy: An update for the budget reform proposal of march 2013," IMFS Working Paper Series 68, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    13. Valentin Jouvanceau, 2016. "The Portfolio Rebalancing Channel of Quantitative Easing," Working Papers 1625, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    14. Falk Mazelis, 2014. "Monetary Policy Effects on Financial Intermediation via the Regulated and the Shadow Banking Systems," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2014-056, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    15. Funke, Michael & Mihaylovski, Petar & Zhu, Haibin, 2015. "Monetary policy transmission in China: A DSGE model with parallel shadow banking and interest rate control," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    16. Fabio Verona & Manuel M. F. Martins & Inês Drumond, 2014. "Financial Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules," CEF.UP Working Papers 1402, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    17. Falk Mazelis, 2015. "The Role of Shadow Banking in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism and the Business Cycle," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    18. Hélène Desgagnés, 2017. "The Rise of Non-Regulated Financial Intermediaries in the Housing Sector and its Macroeconomic Implications," Staff Working Papers 17-36, Bank of Canada.
    19. Liu, Chunping & Ou, Zhirong, 2017. "What determines China's housing price dynamics? New evidence from a DSGE-VAR," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2017/4, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    20. Chang, Chun & Liu, Zheng & Spiegel, Mark M. & Zhang, Jingyi, 2016. "Reserve Requirements and Optimal Chinese Stabilization Policy," Working Paper Series 2016-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    21. Crowley, Patrick M. & Garcia, Enrique & Quah Chee-Heong, 2013. "Is Europe growing together or growing apart?," Research Discussion Papers 33/2013, Bank of Finland.
    22. Kilponen, Juha & Orjasniemi, Seppo & Ripatti, Antti & Verona, Fabio, 2016. "The Aino 2.0 model," Research Discussion Papers 16/2016, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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