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Challenges for Central Banks' Macro Models

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  • Lindé, Jesper
  • Smets, Frank
  • Wouters, Rafael

Abstract

In this paper we discuss a number of challenges for structural macroeconomic models in the light of the Great Recession and its aftermath. It shows that a benchmark DSGE model that shares many features with models currently used by central banks and large international institutions has difficulty explaining both the depth and the slow recovery of the Great Recession. In order to better account for these observations, the paper analyses three extensions of the benchmark model. First, we estimate the model allowing explicitly for the zero lower bound constraint on nominal interest rates. Second, we introduce time-variation in the volatility of the exogenous disturbances to account for the non-Gaussian nature of some of the shocks. Third and finally, we extend the model with a financial accelerator and allow for time-variation in the endogenous propagation of financial shocks. All three extensions require that we go beyond the linear Gaussian assumptions that are standard in most policy models. We conclude that these extensions go some way in accounting for features of the Great Recession and its aftermath, but they do not suffice to address some of the major policy challenges associated with the use of non-standard monetary policy and macroprudential policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks' Macro Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11405, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11405
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    1. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Ralf, Kirsten, 2017. "Publish and Perish: Creative Destruction and Macroeconomic Theory," EconStor Preprints 149994, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    2. Olivier Blanchard, 2016. "¿Tienen futuro los modelos DSGE?," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 18(35), pages 39-46, July-Dece.
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    5. Funke, Michael & Kirkby, Robert & Mihaylovski, Petar, 2018. "House prices and macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model of New Zealand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 152-171.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2018. "On DSGE Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 113-140, Summer.
    7. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2017. "Modelling Occasionally Binding Constraints Using Regime-Switching," Working Paper 2017/23, Norges Bank.
    8. Alice, Albonico & Alessia, Paccagnini & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2016. "PIIGS in the Euro Area. An Empirical DSGE Model," Working Papers 331, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 11 Mar 2016.
    9. repec:eee:eneeco:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:273-281 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Dimitri Kroujiline & Maxim Gusev & Dmitry Ushanov & Sergey V. Sharov & Boris Govorkov, 2018. "An Endogenous Mechanism of Business Cycles," Papers 1803.05002, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2018.

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    Keywords

    and VAR models; DSGE; Financial Frictions; great recession; macroprudential policy; Monetary policy; Open economy.; Regime-Switching; zero lower bound;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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