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A preferred-habitat model of the term structure of interest rates

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  • Vayanos, Dimitri
  • Vila, Jean-Luc

Abstract

We model the term structure of interest rates that results from the interaction between investors with preferences for specific maturities and risk‐averse arbitrageurs. Shocks to the short rate are transmitted to long rates through arbitrageurs' carry trades. Arbitrageurs earn rents from transmitting the shocks through bond risk premia that relate positively to the slope of the term structure. When the short rate is the only risk factor, changes in investor demand have the same relative effect on interest rates across maturities regardless of the maturities where they originate. When investor demand is also stochastic, demand effects become more localized. A calibration indicates that long rates underreact to forward‐guidance announcements about short rates. Large‐scale asset purchases can be more effective in moving long rates, especially if they are concentrated at long maturities.

Suggested Citation

  • Vayanos, Dimitri & Vila, Jean-Luc, 2021. "A preferred-habitat model of the term structure of interest rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106509, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:106509
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    interest rates; bond risk premia; limited arbitrage; government debt; monetary policy; LSE Paul Woolley Centre; Wiley;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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