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2026
- 1379 This paper analyses the evolution and drivers of the stock of global imbalances in order to assess associated vulnerabilities and potential adjustment scenarios. These imbalances have recently increased sharply, with a deterioration in the US net international investment position (NIIP) mirrored by NIIP improvements in most other major economies. We decompose these NIIP changes into their proximate drivers for a sample of 28 economies and find that financial factors (including valuation changes and investment income flows) are the primary drivers of global imbalances at both short and long horizons, while trade also plays a significant role (especially at long horizons). Valuation gains on international investment positions have supported economic growth in many countries since 2010, while also increasing their vulnerability to financial market adjustments. To assess the implications and potential risks, we simulate the spillovers through this cobweb of global imbalances from: (i) a sharp dollar depreciation, (ii) a repricing of equity markets, (iii) higher interest rates, and (iv) a halving of trade imbalances. These scenarios highlight the large international spillovers that would be associated with any reduction in global imbalances, the heterogeneous impact of various rebalancing mechanisms on individual countries and the limits of popular proposals for reducing these imbalances. The persistence of global imbalances underscores the importance of building resilience to the large spillovers that can occur through this cobweb of international exposures
by Stefan Avdjiev & Kristin Forbes & Tsvetelina Nenova & Marjorie Santos
- 1378 Maritime chokepoints and the global economy: evidence from the Strait of Hormuz
by Enisse Kharroubi
- 1377 Hidden by complexity? Measuring stablecoin, crypto and decentralised finance ecosystems
by Timothy Aerts & Ronald Heijmans & Jan Paulick & Violeta Vuletic
- 1376 What determines banks' excess demand for reserves?
by Per Asberg-Sommar & Mathias Drehmann & Denise Hansson & Vatsala Shreeti
- 1375 Zombie firms in emerging Asia: domestic and cross border implications
by Boris Hofmann & Xiaoxi Liu & Ilhyock Shim
- 1374 Verifiable official statistics: a blockchain-based approach
by Mario Rusev & Rafael Schmidt & Edward Lambe & Christian Schmieder & Glenn Philip Tice
- 1373 Settlement liquidity in the Colombian large-value payment system: the role of reserve requirements
by Freddy Cepeda-Lopez & Fredy Gamboa & Javier Miguelez-Márquez
- 1372 Hard to shift, easy to reshape: central bank reserve demand and frictions
by Mathias Drehmann & Xuewen Fu
- 1371 What drives exchange rate pass throughs? Evidence from a non parametric method
by Emanuel Kohlscheen & Aaron Mehrotra
- 1370 Dollarisation and monetary control: what lessons for the rise of stablecoins?
by Boris Hofmann & Aaron Mehrotra & Jan Paulick
- 1369 The evolving nexus: sovereigns, banks and NBFIs
by Stefan Avdjiev & Bryan Hardy & Maximilian Jager
- 1368 Geopolitical risk and emerging market sovereign risk premia
by Fredy Gamboa & Jose Vicente Romero
- 1367 The AI investment race
by Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul
- 1366 Assessing the effects of recent provisioning rules on consumer credit allocation in Colombia
by Diego Cuesta-Mora & Fredy Gamboa & Camilo Sanchez-Quinto
- 1365 Public debt and monetary policy transmission: evidence from advanced and emerging Europe
by Christopher Johns & Aaron Mehrotra & Fabrizio Zampolli
- 1364 Financial and real effects of fiscal risk
by Denis Gorea & Ding Xuan Ng & Fabrizio Zampolli
- 1363 The macroeconomics of stablecoins
by Boris Hofmann & Matthias Kaldorf & Matthias Rottner
- 1362 Embracing carbon uncertainty in portfolio construction
by Dora Xia & Omar Zulaica
- 1361 Bond yield responses to macro news: the role of macro forecast disagreement and monetary policy uncertainty
by Peter Hoerdahl & Burcin Kisacikoglu & Dora Xia
- 1360 Credit supply in the wake of distressed bank acquisitions
by Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Francisco González & José E Gutierrez & José María Serena Garralda
- 1359 The anatomy of stablecoin transactions
by Anneke Kosse & Tara Rice & Fabian Schär & Takeshi Shirakami & Jirapat Siridhasanakul
- 1358 Asset price bubbles and systemic risk in money market funds
by Matteo Aquilina & Peter Cincinelli & Giovanni Urga
- 1357 The digitalisation of banking and social media: implications for deposit pricing
by Giulio Cornelli & Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann & Michael Brei
- 1356 The credibility of bail-in
by Alessandro Di Stefano & Yvan Lengwiler & Kumar Rishabh
- 1355 Making stablecoins stabler(r): can regulation help?
by Tirupam Goel & Ulf Lewrick & Isha Agarwal
- 1354 Monetary policy according to households: perceptions, reactions and channels
by Francesco Grigoli & Damiano Sandri & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Goibion
- 1353 The strength of the inflation-output link in China
by Mikael Juselius & Wenzhe Li
- 1352 Liquidity regulation and bank funding costs
by Iñaki Aldasoro & Sebastian Doerr & Haonan Zhou
- 1351 Disciplining digital risk: evidence from cyber stress tests
by Nordine Abidi & Leonardo Gambacorta & Christoffer Kok & Leonardo Madio & Ixart Miquel-Flores & Alberto Partida
- 1350 Elasticity of money in production networks, working capital, credit lines and financial conditions
by Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Hyun Song Shin & Jose María Vidal Pastor
- 1349 Learning monetary policy strategies at the effective lower bound with sudden surprises
by Spencer Krane & Leonardo Melosi & Matthias Rottner
- 1348 Geopolitical risk in the euro area: measurement and transmission
by Yevheniia Bondarenko & Nayeon Kang & Vivien Lewis & Matthias Rottner & Yves Schueler
- 1347 The Trafalgar squeeze of global liquidity
by Vincent Bignon & Benoit Mojon & Miguel Ortiz Serrano
- 1346 How do interest rate levels affect credit loss rates? A rule of thumb approach
by Maximilian Fandl & Boris Fišera & Adam Geršl & Christian Schmieder
- 1345 Shifting forces behind RMB internationalization: evidence from the 2025 Triennial Survey
by Juliana Robbert & Vladyslav Sushko & Frank Westermann
- 1344 Imitation and the diffusion of innovation
by Debi Prasad Mohapatra & Vatsala Shreeti
- 1343 The geography of AI firms
by Kumar Rishabh & Vatsala Shreeti
- 1342 Quantum Bayesian inference: an exploration
by Jon Frost & Carlos Madeira & Yash Rastogi & Harald Uhlig
- 1341 Labour market flows, unemployment and the Phillips curve
by Enisse Kharroubi & Marius Koechlin
- 1340 Stablecoin flows and spillovers to FX markets
by Iñaki Aldasoro & Paula Beltrán & Federico Grinberg
- 1339 Financial stability limits on fiscal space
by Fabrizio Zampolli
- 1338 Global banking and geopolitics through time
by Lorenz Emter & Laura Kuitunen & Arnaud Mehl & Peter McQuade & Swapan-Kumar Pradhan & Goetz von Peter
- 1337 Introducing BISTRO: a foundational model for unconditional and conditional forecasting of macroeconomic time series
by Batuhan Koyuncu & Byeungchun Kwon & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Fernando Perez-Cruz & Hyun Song Shin
- 1336 A public-private partnership? Central bank funding and credit supply
by Matthieu Chavaz & David Elliott & Win Monroe
- 1335 Tokenomics and blockchain fragmentation
by Hyun Song Shin
- 1334 Robots, ICT and employment: evidence from advanced and emerging EU countries
by Costanza Bosone & Leonardo Gambacorta & Paolo Giudici & Enisse Kharroubi & Ulf Lewrick
- 1333 Generative AI for surveys on payment apps: AI views on privacy and technology
by Koji Takahashi & Joon Suk Park
- 1332 Dollar funding and housing markets: the role of non-US global banks
by Torsten Ehlers & Mathias Hoffmann & Alexander Raabe
- 1331 Lending to vulnerable households and consumption: evidence from Korea
by Jieun Lee & Ilhyock Shim
- 1330 Passive investors and loan spreads
by Konrad Adler & Sebastian Doerr & Sonya Zhu
- 1329 Adoption and welfare effects of payment innovations: the case of digital wallets in Peru
by Arturo Andia & Jose Aurazo & Marcelo Paliza
- 1328 The perils of narrowing fiscal spaces
by Hanno Kase & Leonardo Melosi & Sebastian Rast & Matthias Rottner
- 1327 A tractable menu cost model with an aggregate markup drift
by Ko Munakata
- 1326 Monetary policy and private equity acquisitions: tracing the links
by Fernando Avalos & Boris Hofmann & José María Serena Garralda
- 1325 AI adoption, productivity and employment: evidence from European firms
by Iñaki Aldasoro & Leonardo Gambacorta & Rozalia Pal & Debora Revoltella & Christoph Weiss & Marcin Wolski
- 1324 The macro-financial impact of economic policy uncertainty in Latin America
by Ana Aguilar & Rafael Guerra & Carola Müller & Alexandre Tombini
- 1322 Embracing gen AI: a comparison of Italian and US households
by David Loschiavo & Olivier Armantier & Antonio Dalla Zuanna & Leonardo Gambacorta & Mirko Moscatelli & Ilaria Supino
2025
- 1321 Artificial intelligence and growth in advanced and emerging economies: short-run impact
by Leonardo Gambacorta & Enisse Kharroubi & Aaron Mehrotra & Tommaso Oliviero
- 1320 Inflation and the joint bond-FX spanning puzzle
by Andreas Schrimpf & Markus Sihvonen
- 1319 Housing wealth effects in China
by Benoit Mojon & Han Qiu & Fang Wang & Michael Weber
- 1318 Auction-based liquidity saving mechanisms
by Rodney Garratt & Morten Linnemann Bech & Marko Nanut Petric & Caner Ates
- 1317 From listings to all-tenant rents: a probabilistic model
by Emanuel Nussli & Rachel Arulraj-Cordonier & Flurina Strasser & Marko Nanut Petrič & Morten Linnemann Bech & Antonio Pipino
- 1316 Assessing the macroeconomic impacts of the 2025 US tariffs
by Hongyan Zhao
- 1315 The ripple effect: supply chain reconfigurations and cross-border credit dynamics
by Ricardo Correa & Andrea Fabiani & Matias Ossandon Busch & Miguel Sarmiento
- 1314 The economics of water scarcity
by Jon Frost & Carlos Madeira & Serafin Martinez-Jaramillo
- 1313 Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes: a model comparison
by Matthias Burgert & Matthieu Darracq Pariès & Luigi Durand & Mario Gonzalez & Romanos Priftis & Oke Röhe & Matthias Rottner & Edgar Silgado-Gómez & Nikolai Stähler & Janos Varga
- 1312 Generative economic modeling
by Hanno Kase & Matthias Rottner & Fabio Stohler
- 1311 When bricks meet bytes: does tokenisation fill gaps in traditional real estate markets?
by Giulio Cornelli
- 1310 AI agents for cash management in payment systems
by Iñaki Aldasoro & Ajit Desai
- 1309 Making suptech work: evidence on the key drivers of adoption
by Leonardo Gambacorta & Nico Lauridsen & Samir Kiuhan-Vásquez & Jermy Prenio
- 1308 Environmental factors and capital flows to emerging markets
by José Aurazo & Rafael Guerra & Pablo Tomasini & Alexandre Tombini & Christian Upper
- 1307 When is less more? Bank arrangements for liquidity vs central bank support
by Viral V Acharya & Raghuram Rajan & Zhi Quan (Bill) Shu
- 1306 Big techs, credit, and digital money
by Markus Brunnermeier & Jonathan Payne
- 1305 The asymmetric and heterogeneous pass-through of input prices to firms' expectations and decisions
by Fiorella De Fiore & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Giacomo Mangiante
- 1304 The life experience of central bankers and monetary policy decisions: a cross-country dataset
by Carlos Madeira
- 1303 FX debt and optimal exchange rate hedging
by Laura Alfaro & Julian Caballero & Bryan Hardy
- 1302 Consumer preferences for a digital euro: insights from a discrete choice experiment in Austria
by Helmut Elsinger & Helmut Stix & Martin Summer
- 1301 Competing digital monies
by Jon Frost & Jean-Charles Rochet & Hyun Song Shin & Marianne Verdier
- 1300 The aggregate costs of uninsurable business risk
by Corina Boar & Denis Gorea & Virgiliu Midrigan
- 1299 Mapping the space of central bankers' ideas
by Taejin Park & Fernando Perez-Cruz & Hyun Song Shin
- 1298 Exploring household adoption and usage of generative AI: new evidence from Italy
by Leonardo Gambacorta & Tullio Jappelli & Tommaso Oliviero
- 1297 The BIS multisector model: a multi-country environment for macroeconomic analysis
by Matthias Burgert & Giulio Cornelli & Burcu Erik & Benoit Mojon & Daniel Rees & Matthias Rottner
- 1296 Predicting the payment preference for CBDC: a discrete choice experiment
by Syngjoo Choi & Bongseop Kim & Young-Sik Kim & Ohik Kwon & Soeun Park
- 1295 Pricing in fast payments: a practical and theoretical overview
by José Aurazo & Holti Banka & Guillermo Galicia & Nilima Ramteke & Vatsala Shreeti & Kiyotaka Tanaka
- 1294 Parsing the pulse: decomposing macroeconomic sentiment with LLMs
by Byeungchun Kwon & Taejin Park & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul & Frank Smets
- 1293 International risk sharing and wealth allocation with higher order cumulants
by Giancarlo Corsetti & Anna Lipinska & Giovanni Lombardo
- 1292 Macroeconomic impact of weather disasters: a global and sectoral analysis
by Torsten Ehlers & Jon Frost & Carlos Madeira & Ilhyock Shim
- 1291 Harnessing artificial intelligence for monitoring financial markets
by Matteo Aquilina & Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo & Gaston Gelos & Taejin Park & Fernando Perez-Cruz
- 1290 The speed premium: high-frequency trading and the cost of capital
by Matteo Aquilina & Gbenga Ibikunle & Khaladdin Rzayev & Xuesi Wang
- 1289 The liquidity state dependence of monetary policy transmission
by Oliver Ashtari-Tafti & Rodrigo Guimaraes & Gabor Pinter & Jean-Charles Wijnandts
- 1288 The capital puzzle
by Eduardo Amaral
- 1287 Banks' regulatory risk tolerance
by Mikael Juselius & Aurea Ponte Marques & Nikola Tarashev
- 1286 How do quantitative easing and tightening affect firms?
by Egemen Eren & Denis Gorea & Daojing Zhai
- 1285 R* in East Asia: business, financial cycles, and spillovers
by Pierre L Siklos & Dora Xia & Hongyi Chen
- 1284 What is needed for convergence? The role of finance and capital
by Bryan Hardy & Can Sever
- 1283 Comparing search and intermediation frictions across markets
by Gabor Pinter & Semih Üslü & Jean-Charles Wijnandts
- 1282 Market whiplash after the 2025 tariff shock: an event-targeted VAR approach
by Gabor Pinter & Frank Smets & Semih Üslü
- 1281 Integrating balance sheet policy into monetary policy conditions
by Benoit Mojon & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul & Dora Xia
- 1280 CBDC and banks: disintermediating fast and slow
by Rhys Bidder & Timothy Jackson & Matthias Rottner
- 1279 Central bank and media sentiment on central bank digital currency: an international perspective
by Boris Hofmann & Xiaorui Tang & Feng Zhu
- 1278 Soybean yield prediction in Argentina using climate data
by Emiliano Basco & Diego Elías & Maximiliano Gómez Aguirre & Luciana Pastore
- 1277 Firm-level CO2 emissions and production networks: evidence from administrative data in Chile
by Pablo Acevedo & Elias Albagli & Gonzalo García-Trujillo & María Antonia Yung
- 1276 Economic activity, inflation, and monetary policy after extreme weather events: ENSO and its economic impact on the Peruvian economy
by John Aguirre & Alan Ledesma & Fernando Perez & Youel Rojas
- 1275 Decoding climate-related risks in sovereign bond pricing: a global perspective
by Sofia Anyfantaki & Marianna Blix Grimaldi & Carlos Madeira & Simona Malovana & Georgios Papadopoulos
- 1274 Incorporating physical climate risks into banks' credit risk models
by Vasily Pozdyshev & Alexey Lobanov & Kirill Ilinsky
- 1273 Global portfolio investments and FX derivatives
by Tsvetelina Nenova & Andreas Schrimpf & Hyun Song Shin
- 1272 Financial conditions and the macroeconomy: a two-factor view
by Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Cristina Manea & Andreas Schrimpf
- 1271 Monetary policy and earnings inequality: inflation dependencies
by Jaanika Meriküll & Matthias Rottner
- 1270 Stablecoins and safe asset prices
by Rashad Ahmed & Iñaki Aldasoro
- 1269 Expecting job replacement by GenAI: effects on workers' economic outlook and behavior
by Yusuke Aoki & Joon Suk Park & Yuya Takada & Koji Takahashi
- 1268 Towards verifiability of total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance
by Pietro Saggese & Michael Fröwis & Stefan Kitzler & Bernhard Haslhofer & Raphael Auer
- 1267 Collateralized lending in private credit
by Iñaki Aldasoro & Sebastian Doerr
- 1266 Exchange Rate Effects on Firm Performance: A NICER Approach
by Nuwat Nookhwun & Jettawat Pattararangrong & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul
- 1265 DeFiying gravity? An empirical analysis of cross-border Bitcoin, Ether and stablecoin flows
by Raphael Auer & Ulf Lewrick & Jan Paulick
- 1264 Inflation cycles: evidence from international data
by Alberto Americo & Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo & Johannes Damp & Sjur Nilsen & Daniel Rees & Rafael Schmidt & Christian Schmieder
- 1263 Fragile wholesale deposits, liquidity risk, and banks' maturity transformation
by Carola Müller & Matias Ossandon Busch & Miguel Sarmiento & Freddy Pinzon-Puerto
- 1262 The risk sensitivity of global liquidity flows: Heterogeneity, evolution and drivers
by Stefan Avdjiev & Leonardo Gambacorta & Linda S Goldberg & Stefano Schiaffi
- 1261 ETFs as a disciplinary device
by Yuet Chau & Karamfil Todorov & Eyub Yegen
- 1260 Supply chain transmission of climate-related physical risks
by Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo & Fernando Linardi & Luis Vissotto
- 1259 Let's speak the same language: a formally defined model to describe and compare payment system architectures
by Kees van Hee & Anneke Kosse & Peter Wierts & Jacob Wijngaard
- 1258 How accurately do consumers report their debts in household surveys?
by Carlos Madeira
- 1257 Macroprudential and monetary policy tightening: more than a double whammy?
by Markus Behn & Stijn Claessens & Leonardo Gambacorta & Alessio Reghezza
- 1256 The disciplining effect of bank supervision: evidence from SupTech
by Hans Degryse & Cédric Huylebroek & Bernardus F Nazar Van Doornik
- 1255 Affordable housing, unaffordable credit? Concentration and high-cost lending for manufactured homes
by Sebastian Doerr & Andreas Fuster
- 1254 Global or Regional Safe Assets: Evidence from Bond Substitution Patterns
by Tsvetelina Nenova
- 1253 Word2Prices: embedding central bank communications for inflation prediction
by Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo & Nikola Bokan & Fabio Alberto Comazzi & Michele Lenza
- 1252 Monetary policy and the secular decline in long-term interest rates: A global perspective
by Boris Hofmann & Zehao Li & Steve Pak Yeung Wu
- 1251 Consumer financial data and non-horizontal mergers
by Linda Jeng & Jon Frost & Elisabeth Noble & Chris Brummer
- 1250 Predicting financial market stress with machine learning
by Inaki Aldasoro & Peter Hördahl & Andreas Schrimpf & Sonya Zhu
- 1249 The role of geopolitics in international trade
by Han Qiu & Dora Xia & James Yetman
- 1248 Climate Minsky moments and endogenous financial crises
by Matthias Kaldorf & Matthias Rottner
- 1247 Geopolitics meets monetary policy: decoding their impact on cross-border bank lending
by Swapan-Kumar Pradhan & Viktors Stebunovs & Elod Takats & Judit Temesvary
- 1246 Monetary policy along the yield curve: why can central banks affect long-term real rates?
by Paul Beaudry & Paolo Cavallino & Tim Willems
- 1245 Putting AI agents through their paces on general tasks
by Fernando Perez-Cruz & Hyun Song Shin
- 1244 Artificial intelligence and relationship lending
by Leonardo Gambacorta & Fabiana Sabatini & Stefano Schiaffi
- 1243 Mutual funds and climate news
by Giulio Cornelli & Leonardo Gambacorta & Tommaso Oliviero & Koji Takahashi
- 1242 Privacy-enhancing technologies for digital payments: mapping the landscape
by Raphael Auer & Rainer Böhme & Jeremy Clark & Didem Demirag
- 1241 Estimating nonlinear heterogeneous agent models with neural networks
by Hanno Kase & Leonardo Melosi & Matthias Rottner
- 1240 The granular origins of inflation
by Santiago Alvarez-Blaser & Raphael Auer & Sarah M Lein & Andrei A Levchenko
- 1239 The use and disuse of FinTech credit: When buy-now-pay-later meets credit reporting
by Yanfei Dong & Jiayin Hu & Yiping Huang & Han Qiu & Yingguang Zhang
2024
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