IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/1135.html

Artificial intelligence, services globalisation and income inequality

Author

Listed:
  • Giulio Cornelli
  • Jon Frost
  • Saurabh Mishra

Abstract

How does economic activity related to artificial intelligence (AI) impact the income of various groups in an economy? This study, using a panel of 86 countries over 2010–19, finds that investment in AI is associated with higher income inequality. In particular, AI investment is tied to higher real incomes and income shares for households in the top decile, while households in the fifth and bottom decile see a decline in their income shares. We also find a positive association with exports of modern services linked to AI. In labour markets, there is a contraction in overall employment, a shift from mid-skill to high-skill managerial roles and a reduced labour share of income.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulio Cornelli & Jon Frost & Saurabh Mishra, 2023. "Artificial intelligence, services globalisation and income inequality," BIS Working Papers 1135, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1135
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1135.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1135.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gallipoli, Giovanni & Makridis, Christos A., 2018. "Structural transformation and the rise of information technology," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 91-110.
    2. Thompson, Samuel B., 2011. "Simple formulas for standard errors that cluster by both firm and time," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 1-10, January.
    3. Gabrovski, Miroslav & Ortego-Marti, Victor, 2021. "Search and credit frictions in the housing market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Dani Rodrik, 2016. "Premature deindustrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-33, March.
    5. Frederick Solt, 2020. "Measuring Income Inequality Across Countries and Over Time: The Standardized World Income Inequality Database," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(3), pages 1183-1199, May.
    6. Autor, David & Dorn, David & Katz, Lawrence F. & Patterson, Christina & Van Reenen, John, 2020. "The fall of the labor share and the rise of superstar firms," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104480, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Christoph Lakner & Branko Milanovic, 2016. "Global Income Distribution: From the Fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 30(2), pages 203-232.
    8. Roland T. Rust & Ming-Hui Huang, 2014. "The Service Revolution and the Transformation of Marketing Science," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 206-221, March.
    9. Mr. Nikola Spatafora & Rahul Anand & Mr. Saurabh Mishra, 2012. "Structural Transformation and the sophistication of Production," IMF Working Papers 2012/059, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Erik Brynjolfsson & Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 23-57, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman, 2018. "Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(2), pages 553-609.
    12. Mishra, Saurabh & Lundstrom, Susanna & Anand, Rahul, 2011. "Service export sophistication and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5606, The World Bank.
    13. Miremad Soleymanian & Charles B. Weinberg & Ting Zhu, 2019. "Sensor Data and Behavioral Tracking: Does Usage-Based Auto Insurance Benefit Drivers?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(1), pages 21-43, January.
    14. Jagdish N. Bhagwati, 1984. "Splintering and Disembodiment of Services and Developing Nations," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 133-144, June.
    15. Ejaz Ghani & Arti Grover Goswami & William R. Kerr, 2016. "Highway to Success: The Impact of the Golden Quadrilateral Project for the Location and Performance of Indian Manufacturing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 317-357, March.
    16. David Autor & David Dorn & Lawrence F Katz & Christina Patterson & John Van Reenen, 2020. "The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms [“Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 645-709.
    17. Frost, Jon & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Gambacorta, Romina, 2022. "On the nexus between wealth inequality, financial development and financial technology," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 429-451.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Pal, Rozalia & Revoltella, Debora & Weiss, Christoph & Wolski, Marcin, 2026. "AI adoption, productivity and employment: Evidence from European firms," EIB Working Papers 2026/02, European Investment Bank (EIB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Georgios A. Tritsaris, 2025. "Occupational Tasks, Automation, and Economic Growth: A Modeling and Simulation Approach," Papers 2512.16261, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    2. Lütkenhorst, Wilfried, 2018. "Creating wealth without labour? Emerging contours of a new techno-economic landscape," IDOS Discussion Papers 11/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    3. Jacob, Tinu Iype & Paul, Sunil, 2024. "Labour income share, market power and automation: Evidence from an emerging economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 37-45.
    4. Ajay Agrawal & Joshua Gans & Avi Goldfarb, 2019. "Economic Policy for Artificial Intelligence," Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 139-159.
    5. von Maydell, Richard, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence and its Effect on Competition and Factor Income Shares," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277654, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, revised 2024.
    6. Matthew Rochat, 2023. "The determinants of growing economic inequality within advanced democracies," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 70(4), pages 457-475, December.
    7. Li, Chengming & Huo, Peng & Wang, Zeyu & Zhang, Weiguang & Liang, Feiyan & Mardani, Abbas, 2023. "Digitalization generates equality? Enterprises’ digital transformation, financing constraints, and labor share in China," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    8. soyoung Lee, 2018. "The Role of Firm Heterogeneity in the Earnings Inequality," 2018 Meeting Papers 1155, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Federico Riccio & Lorenzo Cresti & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2025. "The labour share along global value chains: perspectives and evidence from sectoral interdependence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 161(2), pages 635-684, May.
    10. Kanbur, Ravi & Ortiz-Juarez, Eduardo & Sumner, Andy, 2024. "Is the era of declining global income inequality over?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 45-55.
    11. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2023. "The Tech War: Distributional Consequences Of International Rivalry," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 23-07, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    12. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Rizki Nauli Siregar & Jahen F. Rezki, 2022. "Superstar Firms, Productivity And Technological Progress: Evidence From Indonesia’S Manufactoring Sector," Working Papers WP/10/2022, Bank Indonesia.
    13. Ferey, Antoine & Haufler, Andreas & Perroni, Carlo, 2023. "Incentives, globalization, and redistribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    14. Naudé, Wim, 2020. "From the Entrepreneurial to the Ossified Economy: Evidence, Explanations and a New Perspective," GLO Discussion Paper Series 539, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    15. Tarek Benjamin Moll & Lukasz Rachel & Pascual Restrepo, 2019. "Uneven Growth: Automation’s Impact on Income and Wealth Inequality," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-333, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    16. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    17. Bart van Ark & Klaas de Vries & Abdul Erumban, 2019. "Productivity & Innovation Competencies in the Midst of the Digital Transformation Age: A EU-US Comparison," European Economy - Discussion Papers 119, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    18. Nolan, Brian & Richiardi, Matteo & Valenzuela, Luis, 2018. "The Drivers of Inequality in Rich Countries," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-15, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    19. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2024. "Employment and technology: Creative creation or creative destruction? An asymmetric analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 201-219, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.