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Exchange Rate Effects on Firm Performance: A NICER Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Nuwat Nookhwun
  • Jettawat Pattararangrong
  • Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul

Abstract

Under dominant currency pricing, exchange rate swings affect firms' profits in domestic currency rather than price competitiveness. We quantify these valuation effects by constructing firm-specific exchange rates that reflect invoicing currencies and capture cash-flow exposures. These net-invoice-currency-weighted exchange rates (NICER) outperform trade-weighted exchange rates in explaining firm profitability, particularly for smaller exporters. Higher trade dependency amplifies NICER sensitivities, while financial hedging only partially mitigates them. NICER fluctuations also impact firm liquidity and credit conditions, with large exporters offsetting liquidity shocks through external financing. These cash-flow effects, in turn, drive exporters' investment and employment decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Nuwat Nookhwun & Jettawat Pattararangrong & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2025. "Exchange Rate Effects on Firm Performance: A NICER Approach," BIS Working Papers 1266, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1266
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rates; valuation effects; dominant currency paradigm; firm-level data; firm profitability; invoicing currency; exports; financial hedging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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