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Exchange Rate, Employment and Hours: What Firm-Level Data Say


  • Pozzolo, Alberto Franco


  • Nucci, Francesco



Using a representative panel of manufacturing firms, we estimate the response of job and hours worked to currency swings, showing that it depends primarily on the firm's exposure to foreign sales and its reliance on imported inputs. Further, we show that, for given international orientation, the response to exchange rate fluctuations is magnified when firms exhibit a lower monopoly power and when they face foreign pressure in the domestic market through import penetration. The degree of substitutability between imported and other inputs and the distribution of workers by type introduce additional degrees of specificity in the employment sensitivity to exchange rate swings. Further, wage adjustments are also shown to provide a channel through which firms react to currency shocks. Finally, gross job flows within the firm are found to depend on exchange rate fluctuations, although the effect on job creation is predominant.

Suggested Citation

  • Pozzolo, Alberto Franco & Nucci, Francesco, 2008. "Exchange Rate, Employment and Hours: What Firm-Level Data Say," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp08049, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
  • Handle: RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp08049

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
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    3. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 2000. "Exchange Rates and Local Labor Markets," NBER Chapters,in: The Impact of International Trade on Wages, pages 269-307 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Jobs: What Do We Learn from Job Flows?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 153-222 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jiawen Yang, 1997. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through In U.S. Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 95-104, February.
    6. Klein, Michael W. & Schuh, Scott & Triest, Robert K., 2003. "Job creation, job destruction, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 239-265, March.
    7. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 1999. "Gross job flows," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 41, pages 2711-2805 Elsevier.
    8. Michael W. Klein & Scott Schuh & Robert K. Triest, 2003. "Job Creation, Job Destruction, and International Competition," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number jcjd, November.
    9. Campa, Jose Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 1999. "Investment, Pass-Through, and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 287-314, May.
    10. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 1999. "Exchange rates do matter: French job reallocation and exchange rate turbulence, 1984-1992," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1279-1316, June.
    11. Nucci, Francesco & Pozzolo, Alberto F., 2001. "Investment and the exchange rate: An analysis with firm-level panel data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 259-283, February.
    12. Michael W. Klein & Scott Schuh & Robert K. Triest, 2002. "Job creation, job destruction, and international competition: a literature review," Working Papers 02-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Nucci & Alberto Franco Pozzolo, 2014. "Exchange Rate, External Orientation of Firms and Wage Adjustment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(11), pages 1589-1611, November.
    2. Lo Turco, Alessia & Maggioni, Daniela & Picchio, Matteo, 2013. "Offshoring and job stability: Evidence from Italian manufacturing," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 27-46.
    3. Garcia-Jimenez, Carlos I. & Mishra, Ashok K., 2010. "The Effects of Public Debt on Labor Demand in the United States," 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida 56361, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Gabriela López Noria, 2011. "The Effect of Trade and FDI on Inter-industry Wage Differentials: The Case of Mexico," Working Papers 2011-10, Banco de México.

    More about this item


    Employment; Exchange Rate; Firm's Foreign Exposure;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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