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The Exchange Rate, Employment and Hours: What Firm-Level Data Say

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  • Francesco Nucci
  • Alberto Franco Pozzolo

Abstract

Using a representative panel of manufacturing firms, we estimate the response of job and hours worked to currency swings, showing that it depends primarily on firms’ exposure to foreign sales and their reliance on imported inputs. We also show that, for given international exposure, the response to exchange rate fluctuations is magnified when firms exhibit a lower monopoly power and when they face foreign pressure in the domestic market through import penetration. The degree of substitutability between imported and other inputs and the distribution of workers by type introduce additional degrees of specificity in the employment sensitivity to exchange rate swings. We show that firms’ export status and episodes of entry and exit in the export market are associated with a heterogeneous employment response to exchange rate variations. Wage adjustments are shown to provide a channel through which firms react to currency shocks. Finally, gross job fiows within the firm are found to react to exchange rate fluctuations, but the effect on job creation is predominant.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Nucci & Alberto Franco Pozzolo, "undated". "The Exchange Rate, Employment and Hours: What Firm-Level Data Say," Working Papers 9, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:itt:wpaper:wp2009-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Álmos Telegdy, 2016. "Employment adjustment in the global crisis," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 24(4), pages 683-703, October.
    2. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:54-66 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Edmira Cakrani, 2015. "The Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Employment in Albania," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 11(5), pages 45-55, October.
    4. Murphy, Gavin & Siedschlag, Iulia, 2012. "The Effect of Real Exchange Rate Changes on Labour Productivity Growth," Papers WP439, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Douglas L. Campbell, 2013. "Relative Prices, Hysteresis, and the Decline of American Manufacturing," 2013 Papers pca584, Job Market Papers.
    6. Francesco Nucci & Alberto Franco Pozzolo, 2014. "Exchange Rate, External Orientation of Firms and Wage Adjustment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(11), pages 1589-1611, November.
    7. Lo Turco, Alessia & Maggioni, Daniela & Picchio, Matteo, 2013. "Offshoring and job stability: Evidence from Italian manufacturing," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 27-46.
    8. YOKOYAMA Izumi & HIGA Kazuhito & KAWAGUCHI Daiji, 2015. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Employment in a Segmented Labor Market," Discussion papers 15139, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Nguyen, Ha Trong & Duncan, Alan S, 2017. "Exchange rate fluctuations and immigrants' labour market outcomes: New evidence from Australian household panel data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 174-186.
    10. Tan, Yong & Zhao, Chen, 2017. "New Exporters and Continuing Exporters under Exchange Rate Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 77244, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou, 2012. "Exchange rate risk in the US stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 137-150.
    12. Sun, Puyang & Hou, Xinyu & Tan, Yong, 2017. "Export Rivalry and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," MPRA Paper 83369, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mai Dao & Ruo Chen, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate and Employment in China," IMF Working Papers 11/148, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Risheng Mao & John Whalley, 2011. "Ownership Characteristics, Real Exchange Rate Movements and Labor Market Adjustment in China," NBER Working Papers 17565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Izumi Yokoyama & Kazuhito Higa & Daiji Kawaguchi, 2018. "Adjustments of regular and non-regular workers to exogenous shocks: Evidence from exchange rate fluctuation," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    16. Andrea Lassmann, 2013. "Exchange Rate Transmission and Export Activity at the Firm Level," KOF Working papers 13-331, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    17. Hu, Cui & Parsley, David & Tan, Yong, 2017. "Exchange Rate Induced Export Quality Upgrading: A Firm-Level Perspective," MPRA Paper 80506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. repec:emx:esteco:v:33:y:2018:i:1:p:117-149 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employment; Exchange Rate; Firms’ Foreign Exposure;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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