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Exchange Rates and Local Labor Markets

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  • Linda Goldberg
  • Joseph Tracy

Abstract

We document the consequences of real exchange rate movements for the employment, hours, and hourly earnings of workers in manufacturing industries across individual states. Exchange rates have statistically significant wage and employment implications in these local labor markets. The importance and size of these dollar-induced effects vary considerably across industries and are more pronounced in some U.S. regions. In addition to the importance of exchange rate shocks, we confirm prior research results showing that relatively strong local conditions drive up wage in local industries, while anticipated future (positive) local shocks reduce current wages.

Suggested Citation

  • Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Local Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 6985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6985
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    1. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2001. "Employment Versus Wage Adjustment And The U.S. Dollar," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 477-489, August.
    2. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    3. Clarida, Richard H, 1997. "The Real Exchange Rate and US Manufacturing Profits: A Theoretical Framework with Some Empirical Support," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 177-187, July.
    4. Burgess, Simon M & Knetter, Michael M, 1998. "An International Comparison of Employment Adjustment to Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 151-163, February.
    5. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 2001. "Sectoral job creation and destruction responses to oil price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 465-512, December.
    6. Campa, Jose Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 1999. "Investment, Pass-Through, and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 287-314, May.
    7. Topel, Robert H, 1986. "Local Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 111-143, June.
    8. Mortensen, Dale T., 1987. "Job search and labor market analysis," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 849-919 Elsevier.
    9. Ana L. Revenga, 1992. "Exporting Jobs?The Impact of Import Competition on Employment and Wages in U. S. Manufacturing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(1), pages 255-284.
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    Cited by:

    1. Moser, Christoph & Urban, Dieter & di Mauro, Beatrice Weder, 2010. "International competitiveness, job creation and job destruction--An establishment-level study of German job flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 302-317, March.
    2. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:54-66 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Robin Leichenko & Julie Silva, 2004. "International Trade, Employment and Earnings: Evidence from US Rural Counties," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 355-374.
    4. Charles Engel, 2003. "Expenditure Switching and Exchange-Rate Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 231-300 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Nucci, Francesco & Pozzolo, Alberto Franco, 2010. "The exchange rate, employment and hours: What firm-level data say," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 112-123, November.
    6. Carranza, Luis J. & Cayo, Juan M. & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose E., 2003. "Exchange rate volatility and economic performance in Peru: a firm level analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 472-496, December.
    7. Pozzolo, Alberto Franco & Nucci, Francesco, 2008. "Exchange Rate, Employment and Hours: What Firm-Level Data Say," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp08049, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
    8. Robbins, Donald J., 2003. "The impact of trade liberalization upon inequality in developing countries : a review of theory and evidence," ILO Working Papers 993650553402676, International Labour Organization.
    9. Shumskaya Svetlana S., 2013. "Empiric Assessment of Secondary Effects of Influence of the UAH Exchange Rate Upon Indicators of the Labour Market of Ukraine," Business Inform, RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE), Kharkiv National University of Economics, issue 4, pages 303-311.
    10. Joseph Tracy & Linda Goldberg & Stephanie Aaronson, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Employment Instability: Evidence from Matched CPS Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 204-210, May.
    11. Kristin J Forbes, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 214-238.
    12. Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Ida Aghdas, 2003. "The effects of dollar appreciation on sectoral labor market adjustments: Theory and evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 89-117.
    13. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Wages," NBER Working Papers 8137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Dekle, Robert & Ryoo, Heajin H., 2007. "Exchange rate fluctuations, financing constraints, hedging, and exports: Evidence from firm level data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 437-451, December.
    15. Forbes, Kristin J., 2002. "Cheap labor meets costly capital: the impact of devaluations on commodity firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 335-365, December.
    16. Mai Dao & Ruo Chen, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate and Employment in China," IMF Working Papers 11/148, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Robertson, Raymond, 2003. "Exchange rates and relative wages: evidence from Mexico," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 25-48, March.
    18. repec:ilo:ilowps:365055 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Donald Robbins, 2003. "The impact of trade liberalization upon inequality in developing countries - A review of theory and evidence-," DOCUMENTOS DE ECONOMÍA 003601, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
    20. Kurokawa, Yoshinori & Pang, Jiaren & Tang, Yao, 2016. "Exchange rate regimes and wage comovements in a Ricardian model with money," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 96-109.
    21. Klein, Michael W. & Schuh, Scott & Triest, Robert K., 2003. "Job creation, job destruction, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 239-265, March.
    22. Kostas Axarloglou, 2004. "Local labor market conditions and foreign direct investment flows in the U.S," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 32(1), pages 62-66, March.
    23. Vincenzo Atella & Gianfranco Enrico Atzeni & Pier Luigi Belvisi, 2003. "Investment and Exchange Rate Under Uncertainty," CEIS Research Paper 32, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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