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The Real Exchange Rate and US Manufacturing Profits: A Theoretical Framework with Some Empirical Support

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  • Clarida, Richard H

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between the real exchange rate and manufacturing profits using Marston's model of pricing-to-market. Looking at US data, we find that a sustained real depreciation of the dollar has a significant and substantial influence on manufacturing profits. During the early 1980s, the appreciation of the dollar reduced profits by at least 25% conditional on the realized time path of sales, costs, and the US markup. The post-plaza depreciation of the dollar boosted profits at least 30%. Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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  • Clarida, Richard H, 1997. "The Real Exchange Rate and US Manufacturing Profits: A Theoretical Framework with Some Empirical Support," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 177-187, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:2:y:1997:i:3:p:177-87
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    1. Bartram, Sohnke M. & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2006. "The impact of the introduction of the Euro on foreign exchange rate risk exposures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 519-549, October.
    2. Katalin Bodnár, 2009. "Exchange rate exposure of Hungarian enterprises – results of a survey," MNB Occasional Papers 2009/80, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    3. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 2000. "Exchange Rates and Local Labor Markets," NBER Chapters,in: The Impact of International Trade on Wages, pages 269-307 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kristin J Forbes, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 214-238.
    5. Tarek Harchaoui & Faouzi Tarkhani & Terence Yuen, 2005. "The Effects of the Exchange Rate on Investment: Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Industries," Staff Working Papers 05-22, Bank of Canada.
    6. Tsui, Hsiao-Chien, 2008. "Exchange rate and pricing behavior: Comparison of Taiwan with Japan for manufacturing industries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 290-301, March.
    7. Muller, Aline & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2006. "Asymmetric foreign exchange risk exposure: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 495-518, October.
    8. Juann H. Hung & Sandra Viana, 1995. "Modelling U.S. services trade flows: a cointegration-ECM approach," Research Paper 9518, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Robert A. Blecker, 2007. "The Economic Consequences of Dollar Appreciation for US Manufacturing Investment: A Time-Series Analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 491-517.
    10. Bartram, Sohnke M., 2007. "Corporate cash flow and stock price exposures to foreign exchange rate risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 981-994, December.
    11. Nazli Toraganli, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Exposure in the Turkish Economy," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 10(1), pages 47-69.
    12. Hung, Juann H., 1997. "The exchange rate's impact on overseas profits of U.S. multinationals," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 439-458.
    13. Nucci, Francesco & Pozzolo, Alberto F., 2001. "Investment and the exchange rate: An analysis with firm-level panel data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 259-283, February.
    14. repec:dau:papers:123456789/15237 is not listed on IDEAS

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