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The Effects of the Exchange Rate on Investment: Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Industries

  • Tarek Harchaoui
  • Faouzi Tarkhani
  • Terence Yuen

Using industry-level data for 22 Canadian manufacturing industries, the authors examine the relationship between exchange rates and investment during the period 1981-97. Their empirical results show that the overall effect of exchange rates on total investment is statistically insignificant. Further investigation reveals the non-uniform investment response to exchange rate movements in three channels. First, it is important to distinguish between environments that have low and high exchange rate volatilities. Through changes in output demands, depreciations would have a positive effect on total investment when the exchange rate volatility is low. Yet, this stimulative effect becomes considerably smaller as the volatility increases. Second, these results for total investment are mainly due to movements in other machinery and equipment, and not to investment in information technology and structures. Third, investment in industries with low markup ratios are more likely to be affected by exchange rate movements.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 05-22.

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Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:05-22
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  1. Danny Leung & Terence Yuen, 2010. "Do exchange rates affect the capital-labour ratio? Panel evidence from Canadian manufacturing industries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(20), pages 2519-2535.
  2. Allayannis, George & Ihrig, Jane, 2001. "Exposure and Markups," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 805-35.
  3. Simon Gilchrist & Charles P. Himmelberg, 1993. "Evidence on the role of cash flow for investment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Yang, Jiawen, 1998. "Pricing-to-market in U.S. imports and exports: A time series and cross-sessional study," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 843-861.
  5. Goldberg, L.S. & Campa, J., 1993. "Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange-Rate and External Exposure," Working Papers 93-18, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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  7. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  8. Clarida, Richard H, 1997. "The Real Exchange Rate and US Manufacturing Profits: A Theoretical Framework with Some Empirical Support," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 177-87, July.
  9. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  10. Allayannis, George & Ofek, Eli, 2001. "Exchange rate exposure, hedging, and the use of foreign currency derivatives," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 273-296, April.
  11. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
  12. Kaplan, Steven N & Zingales, Luigi, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215, February.
  13. Robert Lafrance & Pierre St-Amant, 1999. "Real Exchange Rate Indexes for the Canadian Dollar," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1999(Autumn), pages 19-28.
  14. Schaller, Huntley, 2006. "Estimating the long-run user cost elasticity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 725-736, May.
  15. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1997. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," NBER Working Papers 5996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
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