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Investment and the exchange rate: Short run and long run aggregate and sector-level estimates

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  • Landon, Stuart
  • Smith, Constance

Abstract

Aggregate and sector-level investment equations that incorporate the exchange rate are estimated for a panel of 17 OECD countries using an error correction methodology. A real currency depreciation is found to have a significant negative effect on aggregate investment in both the short run and the long run. This effect is negative in all sectors in the short run, is significant in six of nine sectors, and is particularly persistent in service sectors, sectors that do not generally benefit directly from an expansion of demand following a currency depreciation. Movements in another explanatory variable, the real wage, have an insignificant impact on investment in the short run in most sectors, but a rise in the real wage has a significant negative long run effect on aggregate investment and on investment in six of nine sectors. A simulation shows that movements in the real exchange rate and the real wage can explain a large proportion of cross-country differences in investment.

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  • Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 2007. "Investment and the exchange rate: Short run and long run aggregate and sector-level estimates," MPRA Paper 9958, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9958
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    8. Nada Shokry & Mohamed Bouaddi, 2018. "Devaluation: Is it Contractionary or Expansionary to Economic Sectors? The Case of Egypt," Working Papers 1252, Economic Research Forum, revised 13 Nov 2018.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Ferda Halicioglu & Rebecca Neumann, 2018. "Domestic investment responses to changes in the real exchange rate: Asymmetries of appreciation versus depreciation," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 362-375, October.
    10. Arthur Korus, 2016. "Currency Overvaluation and R&D Spending," EIIW Discussion paper disbei218, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    11. Warren Moraghen & Boopen Seetanah & Noor Sookia, 2019. "Explaining Heterogeneity in the Effect of the Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Direct Investment: A Meta‐Analysis Approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 31(3), pages 275-291, September.
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    Keywords

    investment; exchange rate;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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