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The Industry Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

  • Gert Peersman
  • Frank Smets

We first estimate the effects of a euro area-wide monetary policy change on output growth in eleven industries of seven euro area countries over the period 1980-98. On average the negative effect of an interest rate tightening on output is significantly greater in recessions than in booms. There is, however, considerable cross-industry heterogeneity in both the overall policy effects and the degree of asymmetry across the two business cycle phases. We then explore which industry characteristics can account for this cross-industry heterogeneity. Differences in the overall policy effects can mainly be explained by the durability of the goods produced in the sector. This can be regarded as evidence for the conventional interest rate/cost-of-capital channel. In contrast, differences in the degree of asymmetry of policy effects are related to differences in financial structure, in particular the maturity structure of debt, the coverage ratio, financial leverage and firm size. This suggests that financial accelerator mechanisms can partly explain cross-industry differences in asymmetry. Copyright 2005 Royal Economic Society.

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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 115 (2005)
Issue (Month): 503 (04)
Pages: 319-342

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:115:y:2005:i:503:p:319-342
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  1. Joe Ganley & Chris Salmon, 1997. "The Industrial Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks: Some Stylised Facts," Bank of England working papers 68, Bank of England.
  2. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
  3. René Garcia & Huntley Schaller, 1999. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?," Carleton Economic Papers 99-17, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  4. Luca Dedola & Francesco Lippi, 2000. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the Industry Data of Five OECD Countries," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1833, Econometric Society.
  5. Kashyap, Anil K & Lamont, Owen A & Stein, Jeremy C, 1994. "Credit Conditions and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 565-92, August.
  6. Hamilton, James D & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 1996. "What Do the Leading Indicators Lead?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(1), pages 27-49, January.
  7. Vermeulen, Philip, 2000. "Business fixed investment: evidence of a financial accelerator in Europe," Working Paper Series 0037, European Central Bank.
  8. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1994. "Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 146, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Hayo, Bernd & Uhlenbrock, Birgit, 1999. "Industry effects of monetary policy in Germany," ZEI Working Papers B 14-1999, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  10. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
  11. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 0091, European Central Bank.
  12. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "Are the effects of monetary policy in the euro area greater in recessions than in booms?," Working Paper Series 0052, European Central Bank.
  13. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Regime Switching in Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 516-36, June.
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