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The Impact of Short- and Long-run Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Investment: A Panel Study of Industrial Countries

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  • Joseph P. Byrne
  • E. Philip Davis

Abstract

We examine the relationship between aggregate investment and exchange rate uncertainty in the G7, using panel estimation and decomposition of volatility derived from the components generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (GARCH) model. Our dynamic panel approach takes account of potential cross-sectional heterogeneity, which can lead to bias in estimation. We find that for a poolable subsample of European countries, it is the transitory and not the permanent component of volatility which adversely affects investment. To the extent that short-run uncertainty in the CGARCH model characterizes higher frequency shocks generated by volatile short-term capital flows, these are most deleterious for investment. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "The Impact of Short- and Long-run Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Investment: A Panel Study of Industrial Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 307-329, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:67:y:2005:i:3:p:307-329
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Yanping, 2015. "Capital Adjustment Costs: Implications for Domestic and Export Sales Dynamics," Discussion Papers in Economics 26600, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    2. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fiess, Norbert & MacDonald, Ronald, 2011. "The global dimension to fiscal sustainability," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 137-150, June.
    3. Serena Lamartina & Andrea Zaghini, 2011. "Increasing Public Expenditure: Wagner's Law in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(2), pages 149-164, May.
    4. Ho, Sin-Yu & Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2017. "Consumption and Exchange Rate Uncertainty: Evidence from Selected Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 80096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Eliane Cristina de Araújo, 2011. "Volatilidade Cambial e Crescimento Econômico: Teorias e Evidências para Economias em Desenvolvimento e Emergentes (1980 e 2007)," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 12(2), pages 187-213.
    6. Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Lin, Shu-Chin & Suen, Yu-Bo, 2010. "Dynamic effects of trade openness on financial development," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 254-261, January.
    7. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M. & Yeh, Chih-Chuan, 2015. "The effect of growth volatility on income inequality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 212-222.
    8. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance E., 2009. "Investment and the exchange rate: Short run and long run aggregate and sector-level estimates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 813-835, September.
    9. Shu-Chin Lin, 2009. "Inflation And Real Stock Returns Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 783-795, October.
    10. Yeh, Chih-Chuan & Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Lin, Pei-Chien, 2013. "Financial structure on growth and volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 391-400.
    11. repec:eid:wpaper:02/11 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Morar Triandafil, Cristina & Brezeanu, Petre & Huidumac, Catalin & Morar Triandafil, Adrian, 2011. "The Drivers of the CEE Exchange Rate Volatility - Empirical Perspective in the context of the Recent Financial Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 212-229, March.
    13. Li, Dandan & Ghoshray, Atanu & Morley, Bruce, 2012. "Measuring the risk premium in uncovered interest parity using the component GARCH-M model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 167-176.
    14. Ray Barrell & Sylvia Gottschalk & Dawn Holland & Ehsan Khoman & Iana Liadze & Olga Pomerantz, 2008. "The impact of EMU on growth and employment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 318, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    15. Joseph Byrne & Giorgio Fazio & Davide Piacentino, 2009. "Total Factor Productivity Convergence among Italian Regions: Some Evidence from Panel Unit Root Tests," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 63-76.
    16. Ahmed, Shamim & Valente, Giorgio, 2015. "Understanding the price of volatility risk in carry trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 118-129.
    17. Li, Dandan & Ghoshray, A. & Morley, B., 2011. "Uncovered Interest Parity and the Risk Premium," Department of Economics Working Papers 24072, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    18. Mellati, Ali, 2008. "Uncertainty and investment in private sector: An analytical argument and a review of the economy of Iran," MPRA Paper 26655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Carolina Troncoso Baltar & Celio Hiratuka & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2014. "Investment in the Brazilian manufacturing industry and the real exchange rate: An investigation using sectoral-level panel data," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1408, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
    20. Coelho dos Santos, Marcelo Bittencourt & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Figueiredo Pinto, Antonio Carlos, 2016. "Evidence of risk premiums in emerging market carry trade currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 103-115.
    21. Marcus Pramor & Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2006. "Common Volatility Trends in the Central and Eastern European Currencies and the Euro," IMF Working Papers 06/206, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Liu, Yanping, 2015. "Capital Adjustment Costs: Implications for Domestic and Export Sales Dynamics," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 529, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    23. Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2014. "Institutional and structural determinants of investment worldwide," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 160-177.

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