Investment and Uncertainty in the G7
In this paper we assess the impact of a comprehensive range of macroeconomic and financial measures of uncertainty on business investment in the major industrial countries using Pooled Mean Group Panel Estimation. We discover a significant negative long run effect from both nominal and real exchange rate volatility using a GARCH (1,1) approach on aggregate investment for the G7. This is also found in poolable subgroups including all four larger European countries. Results for an adverse impact of uncertainty on investment are also found for volatility of long rates in recent years but not for inflation, share prices and industrial production. The results imply that to the extent that EMU favours lower exchange rate and long interest rate volatility, it will also be beneficial to investment.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://niesr.ac.uk
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ferderer, J Peter, 1993. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Aggregate Investment Spending: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 30-48, February.
- Russell Cooper & Joao Ejarque, 2001. "Exhuming Q: market power capital market imperfections," Working Papers 611, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Jose Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1993.
"Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange-Rates and External Exposure,"
NBER Working Papers
4378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campa, Jose & Goldberg, Linda S., 1995. "Investment in manufacturing, exchange rates and external exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 297-320, May.
- Goldberg, L.S. & Campa, J., 1993. "Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange-Rate and External Exposure," Working Papers 93-18, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997.
"Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Joao Ejarque & Russell Cooper, 2000. "Exhuming Q: Market Power Versus Capital Market Imperfections," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 316, Society for Computational Economics.
- Guiso, L. & Parigi, G., 1996.
"Investment and Demand Uncertainty,"
289, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- n/a, 1999. "An Artificial Neural Network System of Leading Indicators," NIESR Discussion Papers 198, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992.
"Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
- Kwanho Shin & Jaewoo Lee, 2000.
"The Role of a Variable Input in the Relationship between Investment and Uncertainty,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 667-680, June.
- Lee, J. & Shin, K., 1996. "The Role of a Variable Input in the Relationship Between Investment and Uncertainty," Papers 96-97-08, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
- Lee, J. & Shin, K., 1997. "The Role of a Variable Input in the Relationship Between Investment and Uncertainty," Papers 97-98-11, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
- Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andrew & Henley, Andrew, 2000.
" What Do We Know about Investment under Uncertainty?,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-53, April.
- Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 1998. "What Do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Studies in Economics 9804, School of Economics, University of Kent.
- Dr Martin Weale, 1999. "The Forecasting Performance of the OECD Composite Leading Indicators for France, Germany, Italy and," NIESR Discussion Papers 187, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran, 1998. "Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Temple, Paul & Urga, Giovanni & Driver, Ciaran, 2001. "The Influence of Uncertainty on Investment in the UK: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 361-82, September.
- Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 1999.
"Endogenous Uncertainty and Market Volatility,"
1999.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Darby, Julia, et al, 1999.
"The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C55-67, March.
- Darby, Julia & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Ireland, Jonathan & Piscitelli, Laura, 1998. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 1896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Julia Darby & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, . "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," ICMM Discussion Papers 49, Department of Economics University of Strathclyde.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
- Serven, Luis, 2002. "Real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2823, The World Bank.
- Jones, Charles I, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525, May.
- Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-15, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Communications Manager)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.