IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpma/0501016.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sector-Specific Volatility Patterns in Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Matthias Kredler

    (New York University)

Abstract

This paper addresses the question if there are differences between time patterns in the volatility of investment across different industrial sectors. A competitive partial-equilibrium model with quadratic adjustment costs in investment and a GARCH demand shock is developed to predict aggregate investment in a sector. It is shown that under the assumptions made in the model, the GARCH property is inherited by the aggregate investment process in the rational-expectations equilibrium. The equation for investment from the model is estimated on quarterly time series from six industrial sectors in the UK. As conjectured, GARCH effects play an important role in some sectors but are not significant in others. Astonishingly, the volatility patterns are in general very different across sectors. This suggests that sector-specific factors are more important in determining investment volatility than the macroeconomic environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Kredler, 2005. "Sector-Specific Volatility Patterns in Investment," Macroeconomics 0501016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0501016
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0501/0501016.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-681, September.
    2. Denizer Cevdet A. & Iyigun Murat F. & Owen Ann, 2002. "Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, October.
    3. Andrew Blake, 1999. "An Artificial Neural Network System of Leading Indicators," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 144, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    4. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. Sean D. Campbell, 2004. "Macroeconomic volatility, predictability and uncertainty in the Great Moderation: evidence from the survey of professional forecasters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
    2. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Stephan, Andreas & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2008. "Uncertainty determinants of corporate liquidity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 833-849, September.
    3. repec:asi:ajoerj:2013:p:633-653 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Christopher F. Baum & Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2009. "The Effects Of Uncertainty On The Leverage Of Nonfinancial Firms," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(2), pages 216-225, April.
    5. Posch, Olaf, 2011. "Explaining output volatility: The case of taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1589-1606.
    6. Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy & Zholud, Oleksandr, 2012. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending: The case of Ukraine," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 279-293.
    7. Christopher F. Baum & Dorothea Schäfer & Oleksandr Talavera, 2006. "The Effects of Industry-Level Uncertainty on Cash Holdings: The Case of Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 638, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Andrew Hallett & Gert Peersman & Laura Piscitelli, 2004. "Investment Under Monetary Uncertainty: A Panel Data Investigation," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 137-162, June.
    9. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M. & Yeh, Chih-Chuan, 2015. "The effect of growth volatility on income inequality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 212-222.
    10. Christopher F. Baum & Atreya Chakraborty & Boyan Liu, 2010. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on firms' changes in financial leverage," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 22-30.
    11. Christopher F. Baum & Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2004. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Firm Leverage," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 443, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Bettina Becker, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment in Industrial R&D and Exchange Rate Uncertainty in the UK," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 217, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    13. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "The Impact of Short‐ and Long‐run Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Investment: A Panel Study of Industrial Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 307-329, June.
    14. Chih-Chuan Yeh & Kuan-Min Wang & Yu-Bo Suen, 2011. "A quantile framework for analysing the links between inflation uncertainty and inflation dynamics across countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(20), pages 2593-2602.
    15. Ibrahim, Mansor H. & Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali, 2014. "Permanent and transitory oil volatility and aggregate investment in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 552-563.
    16. Michael McMahon & Gabriel Sterne & Jamie Thompson, 2005. "The role of ICT in the global investment cycle," Bank of England working papers 257, Bank of England.
    17. Pelin Öge Güney, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Investment Relationship for Turkey," Working Papers 1332, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    18. Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera, "undated". "Effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on leverage for US non-financial firms," German Stata Users' Group Meetings 2004 8, Stata Users Group.
    19. Ajimuda Olumide, 2009. "Price Volatility, Expectations and Monetary Policy in Nigeria," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 109-140, May.
    20. Shu‐Chin Lin, 2009. "Inflation And Real Stock Returns Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 783-795, October.
    21. Yeh, Chih-Chuan & Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Lin, Pei-Chien, 2013. "Financial structure on growth and volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 391-400.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; volatility; variance; GARCH; ARCH; sector;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0501016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.