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Sector-Specific Volatility Patterns in Investment

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  • Matthias Kredler

    (New York University)

Abstract

This paper addresses the question if there are differences between time patterns in the volatility of investment across different industrial sectors. A competitive partial-equilibrium model with quadratic adjustment costs in investment and a GARCH demand shock is developed to predict aggregate investment in a sector. It is shown that under the assumptions made in the model, the GARCH property is inherited by the aggregate investment process in the rational-expectations equilibrium. The equation for investment from the model is estimated on quarterly time series from six industrial sectors in the UK. As conjectured, GARCH effects play an important role in some sectors but are not significant in others. Astonishingly, the volatility patterns are in general very different across sectors. This suggests that sector-specific factors are more important in determining investment volatility than the macroeconomic environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Kredler, 2005. "Sector-Specific Volatility Patterns in Investment," Macroeconomics 0501016, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0501016
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-681, September.
    2. Denizer Cevdet A. & Iyigun Murat F. & Owen Ann, 2002. "Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, October.
    3. Andrew Blake, 1999. "An Artificial Neural Network System of Leading Indicators," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 144, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    4. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. Sean D. Campbell, 2004. "Macroeconomic volatility, predictability and uncertainty in the Great Moderation: evidence from the survey of professional forecasters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; volatility; variance; GARCH; ARCH; sector;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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