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Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Bank Lending: The Case of Ukraine

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  • Oleksandr Talavera
  • Andriy Tsapin
  • Oleksandr Zholud

Abstract

Our study investigates the link between bank lending behavior and macroeconomic uncertainty. We develop a dynamic model of a bank's value maximization that results in a negative relationship between loan to capital ratio and macroeconomic uncertainty. This proposition is tested using a panel of Ukrainian banks collected from NBU and covering the period 2003q1-2005q3. The results indicate that banks increase their lending ratios when macroeconomic uncertainty decreases. We demonstrate that our results are robust with respect to the measurement of macroeconomic uncertainty. The reaction of banks to changes in uncertainty is not uniform and depends on bank-specific characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Oleksandr Talavera & Andriy Tsapin & Oleksandr Zholud, 2006. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Bank Lending: The Case of Ukraine," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 637, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp637
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jebusi:v:95:y:2018:i:c:p:26-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Tsapin Andriy & Tsapin Oleksandr, 2014. "Corporate Investment and Financial Crisis: Can Under- and Overinvestment Be Mitigated by Banks in an Emerging Market?," EERC Working Paper Series 14/04e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    3. repec:eee:phsmap:v:486:y:2017:i:c:p:397-407 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. H. -L. Shi & W. -X. Zhou, 2017. "Wax and wane of the cross-sectional momentum and contrarian effects: Evidence from the Chinese stock markets," Papers 1707.05552, arXiv.org.
    5. Mourad Zmami & Ousama Ben-Salha, 2015. "Exchange rate movements and manufacturing employment in Tunisia: Do different categories of firms react similarly?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 137-167, May.
    6. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Chen, Lifang & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2016. "Overinvestment, inflation uncertainty, and managerial overconfidence: Firm level analysis of Chinese corporations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 54-69.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; macroeconomic uncertainty; Ukraine; banks' balance sheets;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • P27 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
    • P34 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance

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