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Inflation, financial development, and growth: A trilateral analysis

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  • Rousseau, Peter L.
  • Yilmazkuday, Hakan

Abstract

A large body of evidence links financial development to economic growth, yet the channels through which inflation affects this relationship and its stability have been less thoroughly explored. We take an econometric and graphical approach to examining these channels, and find that higher levels of financial development, combined with low-inflation, are related to higher rates of economic growth, especially in lower income countries, but that financial development loses much of its explanatory power in the presence of high-inflation. In particular, small increases in the price level seem able to wipe out relatively large growth effects of financial deepening when the annual rate of inflation lies between 4% and 19%, whereas the operation of the finance-growth link is less affected by inflation rates above this range. Growth is generally much lower, however, in such high-inflation settings where financial development is typically repressed.

Suggested Citation

  • Rousseau, Peter L. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "Inflation, financial development, and growth: A trilateral analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 310-324, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:33:y:2009:i:4:p:310-324
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Herwartz, Helmut & Walle, Yabibal M., 2014. "Determinants of the link between financial and economic development: Evidence from a functional coefficient model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 417-427.
    2. Deniz Baglan & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2016. "Financial Health and the Intensive Margin of Trade," Working Papers 1607, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    3. Khurshid Djalilov & Jenifer Piesse, 2011. "Financial Development and Growth in Transition Countries: A Study of Central Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 4-23, November.
    4. Muhammad Irfan Javaid Attari, 2012. "Inflation and Wheat Prices in Pakistan: 1990-2010," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 4(31), pages 72-86, November.
    5. Khurshid Djalilov & Jenifer Piesse, 2011. "Financial Development and Growth in Transition Countries: A Study of Central Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 4-23, November.
    6. Jude Eggoh, 2012. "Inflation Effects on Finance-Growth Link: A Panel Smooth Threshold Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 711-725, June.
    7. Jean-pierre Allegret & Sana Azzabi, 2013. "Financial development, threshold effects and convergence in developing and emerging countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 1899-1921.
    8. Eggoh, Jude C. & Khan, Muhammad, 2014. "On the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 133-143.
    9. Bittencourt, Manoel, 2012. "Inflation and economic growth in Latin America: Some panel time-series evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 333-340.
    10. Arratibel, Olga & Furceri, Davide & Martin, Reiner & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2011. "The effect of nominal exchange rate volatility on real macroeconomic performance in the CEE countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 261-277, June.
    11. repec:eee:revfin:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:12-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Muhammad Shahbaz & Hrushikesh Mallick & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2018. "Is globalization detrimental to financial development? Further evidence from a very large emerging economy with significant orientation towards policies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 574-595, February.
    13. Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy & Zholud, Oleksandr, 2012. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending: The case of Ukraine," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 279-293.
    14. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Bahmani, Sahar, 2015. "Causal nexus between economic growth, inflation, and stock market development: The case of OECD countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 98-111.
    15. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Hall, John H. & Bahmani, Sahar, 2014. "Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 155-173.
    16. repec:blg:journl:v:12:y:2017:i:2:p:53-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Adeniyi, Oluwatosin & Oyinlola, Abimbola & Omisakin, Olusegun & Egwaikhide, Festus O., 2015. "Financial development and economic growth in Nigeria: Evidence from threshold modelling," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 11-21.

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