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Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending: The case of Ukraine

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  • Talavera, Oleksandr
  • Tsapin, Andriy
  • Zholud, Oleksandr

Abstract

This study investigates the link between bank lending behavior and country-level instability. Our dynamic model of bank's profit maximization predicts a non-monotonic relationship between bank lending and macroeconomic uncertainty. We test this proposition using a panel of Ukrainian banks over the 2003Q2–2008Q2 period. The estimates indicate that banks decrease their lending ratio in times of substantial economic volatility, which could be explained by higher risk aversion of bank managers. Additionally, small and least profitable banks are less likely to be affected by changes in the macroeconomic environment compared to their large and most profitable peers. This outcome is robust with respect to the different measurements of macroeconomic uncertainty.

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  • Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy & Zholud, Oleksandr, 2012. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending: The case of Ukraine," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 279-293.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:36:y:2012:i:2:p:279-293
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2011.06.005
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    2. Zuriyati Ahmad & Abdul Ghafar Ismail, 2018. "Alternative Of Monetary Policy Indicator: Panel Data Analysis From Islamic Banks In Malaysia," Journal of Islamic Monetary Economics and Finance, Bank Indonesia, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, November.
    3. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
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    6. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Chen, Lifang & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2016. "Overinvestment, inflation uncertainty, and managerial overconfidence: Firm level analysis of Chinese corporations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 54-69.
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    8. Iwedi Marshal, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Dynamic on Bank Lending Behavior in Nigeria," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 2(10), pages 131-139, October.
    9. Rousseau, Peter L. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "Inflation, financial development, and growth: A trilateral analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 310-324, December.
    10. Jin, Peizhen & Peng, Chong & Song, Malin, 2019. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, high-level innovation, and urban green development performance in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-18.
    11. María T. González-Pérez, 2021. "Lessons from estimating the average option-implied volatility term structure for the Spanish banking sector," Working Papers 2128, Banco de España.
    12. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2017. "Wax and wane of the cross-sectional momentum and contrarian effects: Evidence from the Chinese stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 397-407.
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    14. Roulet, Caroline, 2018. "Basel III: Effects of capital and liquidity regulations on European bank lending," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 26-46.
    15. Tsapin Andriy & Tsapin Oleksandr, 2014. "Corporate Investment and Financial Crisis: Can Under- and Overinvestment Be Mitigated by Banks in an Emerging Market?," EERC Working Paper Series 14/04e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
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    17. Ozili, Peterson K, 2021. "Financial reporting under economic policy uncertainty," MPRA Paper 105089, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; Macroeconomic uncertainty; Ukraine; Banks’ balance sheets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • P34 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance

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