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Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' lending decisions: The case of Italy

  • Mario Quagliariello

    ()

    (Banca d�Italia)

This paper discusses the role that macroeconomic uncertainty plays in banks� decisions on the optimal asset allocation. Using a portfolio model recently proposed in the literature, the paper aims at disentangling how Italian banks choose between loans and risk-free assets when uncertainty on macroeconomic conditions increases. The econometric results confirm that macroeconomic uncertainty is a significant determinant of banks� investment decisions, also after controlling for other factors. In periods of increasing turmoil, banks� ability to accurately forecast future returns is hindered and herding behaviour tends to emerge, as witnessed by the reduction of the cross-sectional variance of the share of loans held in portfolio.

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File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2007/2007-0615/en_tema_615.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 615.

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Date of creation: Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_615_07
Contact details of provider: Postal: Via Nazionale, 91 - 00184 Roma
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it

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  9. Pagan, Adrian & Ullah, Aman, 1988. "The Econometric Analysis of Models with Risk Terms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 87-105, April.
  10. Ciaran Driver & Lorenzo Trapani & Giovanni Urga, 2004. "Cross-Section Versus Time-Series Measures Of Uncertainty. Using UK Survey Data," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 96, Royal Economic Society.
  11. Mario Quagliariello, 2007. "Banks' riskiness over the business cycle: a panel analysis on Italian intermediaries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 119-138.
  12. Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England.
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  17. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2001. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns : too much, too late?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2749, The World Bank.
  18. Michele Gambera, 2000. "Simple forecasts of bank loan quality in the business cycle," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Apr.
  19. Jean Sepulveda-Umanzor, 2004. "The Relation Between Macroeconomic Uncertainty And The Expected Performance Of the Economy," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 304, Econometric Society.
  20. Huizinga, John, 1993. "Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Uncertainty, and Investment in U.S. Manufacturing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 521-49, August.
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  22. John Huizinga, 1993. "Inflation uncertainty, relative price uncertainty, and investment in U.S. manufacturing," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 521-557.
  23. Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "The second moments matter: The response of bank lending behavior to macroeconomic uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 172, Society for Computational Economics.
  24. Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-92, August.
  25. Cecchetti, Stephen G, 1993. "Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Uncertainty, and Investment in U.S. Manufacturing: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 550-54, August.
  26. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  27. Glenn Hoggarth & Andrew Logan & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Macro stress tests of UK banks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 392-408 Bank for International Settlements.
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