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Simple forecasts of bank loan quality in the business cycle

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  • Michele Gambera

Abstract

Experience from models such as SEER suggests that bank financial condition predict bank failures. However, it has been difficult to find a relationship between macroeconomic variables and bank failures. This paper shows ways in which simple time-series techniques can be used to forecast financial conditions of banks. The models include macroeconomic variables in order to consider systemic cyclical factors in forecasting. In addition, analysis of regression residuals is used to obtain relatively early warnings of unusual performance. ; The empirical result suggest that a limited number of regional and national macroeconomic variables are often good predictors for problem-loan ratios, and that simple, bivariate VAR systems of one bank variable, one macroeconomic variable, and seasonal dummies can be quite effective. These variables include bankruptcy filings, farm income (particularly for states where farming has important role), state annual product, housing permits, and unemployment. Analysis of the residuals is shown to be an interesting tool to detect unexpected changes in past-due loans. Impulse-response functions are a result of VAR estimation, which can be used for scenario analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Gambera, 2000. "Simple forecasts of bank loan quality in the business cycle," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Apr.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhei:y:2000:i:apr:n:sr-00-3
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Quagliariello, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' lending decisions: the case of Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 323-336.
    2. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka & Repina, Sebastijan, 2011. "The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 310-322, February.
    3. Love, Inessa & Turk Ariss, Rima, 2014. "Macro-financial linkages in Egypt: A panel analysis of economic shocks and loan portfolio quality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 158-181.
    4. Simona Castellani & Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2008. "Indebtedness, macroeconomic conditions and banks’ loan losses: evidence from Italy," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 08014, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    5. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Daniilidis, Ioannis & Delis, Manthos D., 2014. "Bank procyclicality and output: Issues and policies," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 58-83.
    6. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Di Colli, Stefano & Lopez, Juan Sergio, 2014. "Bank lending procyclicality and credit quality during financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 142-157.
    8. Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2008. "Is bank portfolio riskiness procyclical: Evidence from Italy using a vector autoregression," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 46-63, February.
    9. Bruna Škarica, 2013. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Central and Eastern European Countries," EFZG Working Papers Series 1307, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    10. Mario Quagliariello, "undated". "Banks' Performance over the Business Cycle: A Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries," Discussion Papers 04/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
    11. Beatty, Anne & Liao, Scott, 2011. "Do delays in expected loss recognition affect banks' willingness to lend?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-20, June.
    12. Eftychia Nikolaidou & Sofoklis Vogiazas, 2014. "Credit Risk Determinants for the Bulgarian Banking System," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(1), pages 87-102, February.
    13. Ivan Baboucek & Martin Jancar, 2005. "Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks to the Quality of the Aggregate Loan Portfolio," Working Papers 2005/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    14. Aykut Ekinci, 2016. "Rethinking Credit Risk under the Malinvestment Concept: The Case of Germany, Spain and Italy," European Financial and Accounting Journal, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(1), pages 39-64.
    15. Iulia Andreea Bucur & Simona Elena Dragomirescu, 2014. "The Influence Of Macroeconomic Conditions On Credit Risk: Case Of Romanian Banking System," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 19.
    16. Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2009. "Asymmetric effects of the business cycle on bank credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1624-1635, September.

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    Keywords

    Bank loans ; Bank failures ; Business cycles;

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