Macro-financial linkages in Egypt: A panel analysis of economic shocks and loan portfolio quality
This paper investigates macro-financial linkages in Egypt using two complementary methods, assessing the interaction between different macroeconomic aggregates and loan portfolio quality in a multivariate framework as well as through a panel vector autoregressive method that controls for bank-level characteristics. Using a panel of banks over 1993–2010, the authors find that a positive shock to capital inflows and growth in gross domestic product improves banks’ loan portfolio quality, and that the effect is fairly similar in magnitude using the multivariate and panel vector autoregressive frameworks. In contrast, higher lending rates may lead to adverse selection problems and hence to a drop in portfolio quality. The paper also reports that a larger market share of foreign banks in the industry improves loan quality.
Volume (Year): 28 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gorton, Gary, 1988.
"Banking Panics and Business Cycles,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-81, December.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010.
"From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis,"
NBER Working Papers
15795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michele Gambera, 2000. "Simple forecasts of bank loan quality in the business cycle," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Apr.
- Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, .
"Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking,"
CRSP working papers
476, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 1998. "Liquidity risk, liquidity creation and financial fragility: a theory of banking," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
- Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2001. "Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation, and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(2), pages 287-327, April.
- Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 1999. "Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking," NBER Working Papers 7430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Carey, 1998. "Credit Risk in Private Debt Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1363-1387, 08.
- Rinaldi, Laura & Sanchis-Arellano, Alicia, 2006. "Household debt sustainability: what explains household non-performing loans? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 0570, European Central Bank.
- Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2008.
"How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks?,"
Kiel Working Papers
1419, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2010. "How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1839-1848, August.
- Jonas Dovern & Carsten-Patrick Meier & Johannes Vilsmeier, 2008. "How Resilient is the German Banking System to Macroeconomic Shocks?," Kiel Working Papers 1419, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Pesola, Jarmo, 2001. "The role of macroeconomic shocks in banking crises," Research Discussion Papers 6/2001, Bank of Finland.
- Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2004.
"Financial Intermediaries and Markets,"
Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1023-1061, 07.
- Berger, Allen N. & DeYoung, Robert, 1997.
"Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 849-870, June.
- Allen N. Berger & Robert DeYoung, 1995. "Problem Loans and Cost Efficiency in Commercial Banks," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Allen N. Berger & Robert DeYoung, 1997. "Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-8, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Podpiera, Jiri & Weill, Laurent, 2008.
"Bad luck or bad management? Emerging banking market experience,"
Journal of Financial Stability,
Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 135-148, June.
- Jirí Podpiera & Laurent Weill, 2008. "Bad luck or bad management? emerging banking market experience," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/14305, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Jiri Podpiera & Laurent Weill, 2007. "Bad Luck or Bad Management? Emerging Banking Market Experience," Working Papers 2007/5, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Marcello Bofondi & Tiziano Ropele, 2011. "Macroeconomic determinants of bad loans: evidence from Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 89, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- William R. Keeton & Charles S. Morris, 1987. "Why do banks' loan losses differ?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue May, pages 3-21.
- M Arellano & O Bover, 1990.
"Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
- Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
- Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1976.
"Optimal Financial Crises,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
97-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Brenda GonzÃ¡lez-Hermosillo & Ceyla PazarbaÅŸioÄŸlu & Robert Billings, 1997. "Determinants of Banking System Fragility: A Case Study of Mexico," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 295-314, September.
- Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2008.
"Is bank portfolio riskiness procyclical: Evidence from Italy using a vector autoregression,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,
Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 46-63, February.
- Juri Marcucci & Mario Quagliariello, . "Is Bank Portfolio Riskiness Procyclical? Evidence from Italy using a Vector Autoregression," Discussion Papers 05/09, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Robert T. Clair, 1992. "Loan growth and loan quality: some preliminary evidence from Texas banks," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 9-22.
- Breuer, Janice Boucher, 2006. "Problem bank loans, conflicts of interest, and institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 266-285, October.
- Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Mario Quagliariello, 2007. "Banks' riskiness over the business cycle: a panel analysis on Italian intermediaries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 119-138.
- Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England.
- Mwanza Nkusu, 2011. "Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 11/161, International Monetary Fund.
- Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012.
"Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
- Dimitrios P. Louzis & Aggelos T. Vouldis & Vasilios L. Metaxas, 2010. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: a comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Working Papers 118, Bank of Greece.
- Raphael A. Espinoza & Ananthakrishnan Prasad, 2010. "Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 10/224, International Monetary Fund.
- Renato Filosa, 2007. "Stress testing of the stability of the Italian banking system: a VAR approach," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0703, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:28:y:2014:i:c:p:158-181. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.