Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt: A Panel Analysis of Economic Shocks and Loan Portfolio Quality
This paper investigates macro-financial linkages in Egypt using two complementary methods, assessing the interaction between different macroeconomic aggregates and loan portfolio quality in a multivariate framework as well as through a panel vector autoregressive method that controls for bank-level characteristics. Using a panel of banks over 1993-2010, the authors find that a positive shock to capital inflows and growth in gross domestic product improves banksâ€™ loan portfolio quality, and that the effect is fairly similar in magnitude using the multivariate and panel vector autoregressive frameworks. In contrast, higher lending rates may lead to adverse selection problems and hence to a drop in portfolio quality. The paper also reports that a larger market share of foreign banks in the industry improves loan quality.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI 96822|
Web page: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/working.html Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brenda GonzÃ¡lez-Hermosillo & Ceyla PazarbaÅŸioÄŸlu & Robert Billings, 1997. "Determinants of Banking System Fragility: A Case Study of Mexico," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 295-314, September.
- Podpiera, Jiri & Weill, Laurent, 2008.
"Bad luck or bad management? Emerging banking market experience,"
Journal of Financial Stability,
Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 135-148, June.
- Jirí Podpiera & Laurent Weill, 2008. "Bad luck or bad management? emerging banking market experience," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/14305, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Jiri Podpiera & Laurent Weill, 2007. "Bad Luck or Bad Management? Emerging Banking Market Experience," Working Papers 2007/5, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Mark Carey, 1998. "Credit Risk in Private Debt Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1363-1387, 08.
- Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2008.
"Is bank portfolio riskiness procyclical: Evidence from Italy using a vector autoregression,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,
Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 46-63, February.
- Juri Marcucci & Mario Quagliariello, . "Is Bank Portfolio Riskiness Procyclical? Evidence from Italy using a Vector Autoregression," Discussion Papers 05/09, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012.
"Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
- Dimitrios P. Louzis & Aggelos T. Vouldis & Vasilios L. Metaxas, 2010. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: a comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Working Papers 118, Bank of Greece.
- Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2003.
"Financial Intermediaries and Markets,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
00-44, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Berger, Allen N. & DeYoung, Robert, 1997.
"Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 849-870, June.
- Allen N. Berger & Robert DeYoung, 1997. "Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-8, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Allen N. Berger & Robert DeYoung, 1995. "Problem Loans and Cost Efficiency in Commercial Banks," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Mwanza Nkusu, 2011. "Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 11/161, International Monetary Fund.
- Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2010.
"How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks?,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1839-1848, August.
- Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2008. "How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks?," Kiel Working Papers 1419, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Jonas Dovern & Carsten-Patrick Meier & Johannes Vilsmeier, 2008. "How Resilient is the German Banking System to Macroeconomic Shocks?," Kiel Working Papers 1419, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 1998.
"Liquidity risk, liquidity creation and financial fragility: a theory of banking,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
- Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2001. "Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation, and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(2), pages 287-327, April.
- Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, . "Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking," CRSP working papers 476, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 1999. "Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking," NBER Working Papers 7430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marcello Bofondi & Tiziano Ropele, 2011. "Macroeconomic determinants of bad loans: evidence from Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 89, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010.
"From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis,"
NBER Working Papers
15795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
- William R. Keeton & Charles S. Morris, 1987. "Why do banks' loan losses differ?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue May, pages 3-21.
- M Arellano & O Bover, 1990.
"Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
- Mario Quagliariello, 2007. "Banks' riskiness over the business cycle: a panel analysis on Italian intermediaries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 119-138.
- Pesola, Jarmo, 2001. "The role of macroeconomic shocks in banking crises," Research Discussion Papers 6/2001, Bank of Finland.
- Breuer, Janice Boucher, 2006. "Problem bank loans, conflicts of interest, and institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 266-285, October.
- Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998.
"Optimal Financial Crises,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1245-1284, 08.
- Robert T. Clair, 1992. "Loan growth and loan quality: some preliminary evidence from Texas banks," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 9-22.
- Gary Gorton, 1986.
"Banking panics and business cycles,"
86-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Renato Filosa, 2007. "Stress testing of the stability of the Italian banking system: a VAR approach," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0703, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
- Michele Gambera, 2000. "Simple forecasts of bank loan quality in the business cycle," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Apr.
- Raphael A Espinoza & Ananthakrishnan Prasad, 2010. "Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 10/224, International Monetary Fund.
- Rinaldi, Laura & Sanchis-Arellano, Alicia, 2006. "Household debt sustainability: what explains household non-performing loans? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 0570, European Central Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:201310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Web Technician)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.