Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in the Turkish Banking Sector : What Has Changed After the Global Crisis?
[EN] This paper analyzes the determinants of non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector before and after the global crisis. The bank-specific determinants include measures on persistence, capital adequacy, profitability, lending, inefficiency and bank size, while other determinants include the real GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate and the policy rate, which represent macroeconomic and policy-related variables. In addition, the determinants also include a dummy variable for the global crisis. Estimation results suggest that the determinants of non-performing loans have changed after the crisis. Non-performing loans are mostly shaped by bank-specific factors before the crisis, whereas bank-specific factors have a reduced effect after the global crisis. This can be owed to global factors, which certainly had effects on financial conditions. In the upcoming period, the course of global policy normalization may affect financial conditions and hence non-performing loans. This implies challenges and prospects regarding financial stability and the conduct of monetary policy. [TR] Bu calismada, Turk bankacilik sektorundeki takipteki kredilerin belirleyicileri kuresel kriz oncesi ve sonrasinda incelenmektedir. Bankaya ozgu belirleyiciler olarak atalet, sermaye yeterliligi, karlilik, kredi arzi, verimsizlik ve banka buyuklugu; makroekonomik ve politikaya iliskin etkenler olarak ise buyume, enflasyon, doviz kuru ve politika faizi calismaya dahil edilmektedir. Buna ek olarak, kuresel krize iliskin kukla degiskeni de belirleyiciler arasinda yer almaktadir. Tahmin sonuclari, takipteki kredilerin belirleyicilerinin kriz sonrasinda degistigini gostermektedir. Buna gore, kriz oncesi donemde takipteki krediler buyuk oranda bankaya ozgu degiskenler tarafindan belirlenirken, kriz sonrasi donemde bu degiskenlerin etkileri azalmaktadir. Bunun sebebi, kriz sonrasi donemde finansal kosullarin kuresel etkenler tarafindan sekillenmis olmasidir. Onumuzdeki donemde, kuresel politika normallesmesinin izleyecegi seyrin finansal kosullar ve dolayisiyla takipteki krediler uzerinde etkili olmasi muhtemel gozukmektedir. Bu durum, finansal istikrar ve para politikasina iliskin zorluklar ve olasiliklara isaret etmektedir.
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