Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in the Turkish Banking Sector : What Has Changed After the Global Crisis?
[EN] This paper analyzes the determinants of non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector before and after the global crisis. The bank-specific determinants include measures on persistence, capital adequacy, profitability, lending, inefficiency and bank size, while other determinants include the real GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate and the policy rate, which represent macroeconomic and policy-related variables. In addition, the determinants also include a dummy variable for the global crisis. Estimation results suggest that the determinants of non-performing loans have changed after the crisis. Non-performing loans are mostly shaped by bank-specific factors before the crisis, whereas bank-specific factors have a reduced effect after the global crisis. This can be owed to global factors, which certainly had effects on financial conditions. In the upcoming period, the course of global policy normalization may affect financial conditions and hence non-performing loans. This implies challenges and prospects regarding financial stability and the conduct of monetary policy. [TR] Bu calismada, Turk bankacilik sektorundeki takipteki kredilerin belirleyicileri kuresel kriz oncesi ve sonrasinda incelenmektedir. Bankaya ozgu belirleyiciler olarak atalet, sermaye yeterliligi, karlilik, kredi arzi, verimsizlik ve banka buyuklugu; makroekonomik ve politikaya iliskin etkenler olarak ise buyume, enflasyon, doviz kuru ve politika faizi calismaya dahil edilmektedir. Buna ek olarak, kuresel krize iliskin kukla degiskeni de belirleyiciler arasinda yer almaktadir. Tahmin sonuclari, takipteki kredilerin belirleyicilerinin kriz sonrasinda degistigini gostermektedir. Buna gore, kriz oncesi donemde takipteki krediler buyuk oranda bankaya ozgu degiskenler tarafindan belirlenirken, kriz sonrasi donemde bu degiskenlerin etkileri azalmaktadir. Bunun sebebi, kriz sonrasi donemde finansal kosullarin kuresel etkenler tarafindan sekillenmis olmasidir. Onumuzdeki donemde, kuresel politika normallesmesinin izleyecegi seyrin finansal kosullar ve dolayisiyla takipteki krediler uzerinde etkili olmasi muhtemel gozukmektedir. Bu durum, finansal istikrar ve para politikasina iliskin zorluklar ve olasiliklara isaret etmektedir.
|Date of creation:||2016|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Head Office, Istiklal Cad. 10 Ulus, 06100 Ankara|
Phone: (90 312) 507 5000
Fax: (90 312) 507 5640
Web page: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995.
"Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
- M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Castro, Vítor, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 672-683.
- Vítor Castro, 2012. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," NIPE Working Papers 11/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Vítor Castro, 2013. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Credit Risk in the Banking System: The Case of the GIPSI," GEMF Working Papers 2013-12, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
- Vuslat US, 2015. "Banking Sector Performance in Turkey before and after the Global Crisis," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 30(353), pages 45-74.
- Podpiera, Jiri & Weill, Laurent, 2008. "Bad luck or bad management? Emerging banking market experience," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 135-148, June.
- Jiri Podpiera & Laurent Weill, 2007. "Bad Luck or Bad Management? Emerging Banking Market Experience," Working Papers 2007/5, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Jirí Podpiera & Laurent Weill, 2008. "Bad luck or bad management? emerging banking market experience," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/14305, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
- Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2005. "Credit cycles, credit risk, and prudential regulation," Working Papers 0531, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Jesus, Saurina & Gabriel, Jimenez, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," MPRA Paper 718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Berger, Allen N. & DeYoung, Robert, 1997. "Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 849-870, June.
- Allen N. Berger & Robert DeYoung, 1995. "Problem Loans and Cost Efficiency in Commercial Banks," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Allen N. Berger & Robert DeYoung, 1997. "Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-8, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
- R Blundell & Steven Bond, "undated". "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Richard Blundell & Stephen Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Williams, Jonathan, 2004. "Determining management behaviour in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2427-2460, October.
- Rime, Bertrand, 2001. "Capital requirements and bank behaviour: Empirical evidence for Switzerland," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 789-805, April.
- Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
- Dimitrios P. Louzis & Aggelos T. Vouldis & Vasilios L. Metaxas, 2010. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: a comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Working Papers 118, Bank of Greece.
- Koehn, Michael & Santomero, Anthony M, 1980. " Regulation of Bank Capital and Portfolio Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1235-1244, December.
- Erdem Başçı & Hakan Kara, 2011. "Finansal istikrar ve para politikası," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(302), pages 9-25.
- Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "IPSHIN: RATS procedure to implement Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00098, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Aytul Ganioglu & Vuslat Us, 2014. "The Structure of the Turkish Banking Sector Before and After the Global Crisis," Working Papers 1429, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- William R. Keeton & Charles S. Morris, 1987. "Why do banks' loan losses differ?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue May, pages 3-21.
- Fofack, Hippolyte L., 2005. "Nonperforming loans in Sub-Saharan Africa : causal analysis and macroeconomic implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3769, The World Bank.
- Marcello Bofondi & Tiziano Ropele, 2011. "Macroeconomic determinants of bad loans: evidence from Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 89, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Stefania P. S. Rossi & Markus S. Schwaiger & Gerhard Winkler, 2008. "Linking Managerial Behaviour to Cost and Profit Efficiency in the Banking Sectors of Central and Eastern European Countries," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 41(4), pages 589-629.
- Bogdan MOINESCU & Adrian CODIRLAŞU, 2012. "Assessing the Sectoral Dynamics of Non-performing Loans: Signs from Financial and Real Economy," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(567)), pages 69-80, February.
- Nir Klein, 2013. "Non-Performing Loans in CESEE; Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance," IMF Working Papers 13/72, International Monetary Fund.
- Vasiliki Makri & Athanasios Tsagkanos & Athanasios Bellas, 2014. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: The Case of Eurozone," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 193-206, March.
- Mwanza Nkusu, 2011. "Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 11/161, International Monetary Fund.
- Allen N. Berger & Robert DeYoung, "undated". "Problem Loans and Cost Efficiency in Commercial Banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Raphael A Espinoza & Ananthakrishnan Prasad, 2010. "Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 10/224, International Monetary Fund.
- Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "LEVINLIN: RATS procedure to perform Levin-Lin-Chu test for unit roots in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00242, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Khemraj, Tarron & Pasha, Sukrishnalall, 2009. "The determinants of non-performing loans: an econometric case study of Guyana," MPRA Paper 53128, University Library of Munich, Germany. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1627. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.