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Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI

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  • Vítor Castro

    () (Universidade de Coimbra - NIPE)

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse the link between the macroeconomic developments and the banking credit risk in a particular group of countries – Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy (GIPSI) – recently affected by unfavourable economic and financial conditions and to which, on this matter, the literature has not given a particular attention yet. Employing dynamic panel data approaches to these five countries over the period 1997q1-2011q3, we conclude that the banking credit risk is significantly affected by the macroeconomic environment: the credit risk increases when GDP growth and the share price indices decrease and rises when the unemployment rate, interest rate, and credit growth increase; it is also positively affected by an appreciation of the real exchange rate; moreover, we observe a substantial increase in the credit risk during the recent financial crisis period. Several robustness tests with different estimators have also confirmed these results.

Suggested Citation

  • Vítor Castro, 2012. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," NIPE Working Papers 11/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:11/2012
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    Keywords

    Credit risk; Macroeconomic factors; Banking system; GIPSI; Panel data;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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