The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Risks in the Banking Sector: A Cross-Country Empirical Assessment
This paper explores the links between macroeconomic conditions and individual bank risk. Using capital adequacy ratios as a broad measure of risk sustainability, a linear mixed effects model for a large international panel of banks for the years 2001-2005 is estimated. In OECD countries, banks tend to hold higher capital ratios during business cycle highs, this effect being even stronger for a subsample of EU banks. In non-OECD countries, periods of higher economic growth are associated with lower capital ratios. This indicates procyclical behavior. Banks accumulate risks more rapidly in economically good times and some of these risks materialize as asset quality deteriorates during subsequent recessions. Furthermore, higher inflation rates are associated with higher capital ratios of banks, implying that inflation-induced economic uncertainty stimulates banks to restrict credit. As far as regulatory and institutional environment is concerned, econometric estimates show that banks in non-OECD countries with deposit insurance tend to be more risky, whereas evidence of a negative relationship between concentration of the banking sector and banks’ risk taking is statistically less robust.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (+49) 7071 98 96 -0
Fax: (+49) 7071 98 96 -99
Web page: http://www.iaw.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrea Sironi, 2000.
"Testing for market discipline in the European banking industry: evidence from subordinated debt issues,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2000-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sironi, Andrea, 2003. " Testing for Market Discipline in the European Banking Industry: Evidence from Subordinated Debt Issues," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 443-72, June.
- Claudia M. Buch & Gayle L. DeLong & Katja Neugebauer, 2007. "International Banking and the Allocation of Risk," IAW Discussion Papers 32, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999.
"The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems,"
14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000.
"Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
[The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective," NBER Working Papers 5600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Karacaovali, Baybars & Laeven, Luc, 2005. "Deposit insurance around the world : a comprehensive database," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3628, The World Bank.
- L. Baele & R. Vander Vennet & A. Van Landschoot, 2004. "Bank Risk Strategies and Cyclical Variation in Bank Stock Returns," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/217, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Matutes, Carmen & Vives, Xavier, 1995.
"Imperfect Competition, Risk Taking, and Regulation in Banking,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1177, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Matutes, Carmen & Vives, Xavier, 2000. "Imperfect competition, risk taking, and regulation in banking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-34, January.
- Ari Hyytinen, 2002. "The time profile of risk in banking crises: evidence from Scandinavian banking sectors," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 613-623.
- Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
- Gorton, Gary, 1988.
"Banking Panics and Business Cycles,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-81, December.
- Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
- Kevin C. Murdock & Thomas F. Hellmann & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2000. "Liberalization, Moral Hazard in Banking, and Prudential Regulation: Are Capital Requirements Enough?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 147-165, March.
- Boyd, John H. & Levine, Ross & Smith, Bruce D., 2001. "The impact of inflation on financial sector performance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 221-248, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iaw:iawdip:44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rolf Kleimann)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.