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The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Risks in the Banking Sector: A Cross-Country Empirical Assessment

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Abstract

This paper explores the links between macroeconomic conditions and individual bank risk. Using capital adequacy ratios as a broad measure of risk sustainability, a linear mixed effects model for a large international panel of banks for the years 2001-2005 is estimated. In OECD countries, banks tend to hold higher capital ratios during business cycle highs, this effect being even stronger for a subsample of EU banks. In non-OECD countries, periods of higher economic growth are associated with lower capital ratios. This indicates procyclical behavior. Banks accumulate risks more rapidly in economically good times and some of these risks materialize as asset quality deteriorates during subsequent recessions. Furthermore, higher inflation rates are associated with higher capital ratios of banks, implying that inflation-induced economic uncertainty stimulates banks to restrict credit. As far as regulatory and institutional environment is concerned, econometric estimates show that banks in non-OECD countries with deposit insurance tend to be more risky, whereas evidence of a negative relationship between concentration of the banking sector and banks’ risk taking is statistically less robust.

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  • Olga Bohachova, 2008. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Risks in the Banking Sector: A Cross-Country Empirical Assessment," IAW Discussion Papers 44, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
  • Handle: RePEc:iaw:iawdip:44
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    Cited by:

    1. Md. Shahidul Islam & Shin-Ichi Nishiyama, 2019. "Non-Performing Loans of Commercial Banks in South Asian Countries: Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard Issues," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(9), pages 1091-1106, September.
    2. CLICHICI, Dorina & COLESNICOVA, Tatiana, 2014. "The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors On Non-Performing Loans In The Republic Of Moldova," Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 1(1), pages 73-78.
    3. Tochukwu Timothy Okoli, 2020. "Is the Relationship between Financial Technology and Credit Risk Monotonic? Evidence from the BRICS Economies," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(9), pages 999-1011, September.
    4. Mahmoud Abdelaziz Touny & Mohamed Abdelhameed Shehab, 2015. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: An Empirical Study of Some Arab Countries," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 7(1), pages 11-22, May.
    5. Md. Shahidul Islam & Shin-Ichi Nishiyama, 2017. "Is this adverse selection or something else to determine the non-performing loans? Dynamic panel evidence from South Asian countries," Discussion Papers 1723, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    6. Md. Shahidul ISLAM & Shin-Ichi NISHIYAMA, 2016. "The Determinants of Non-performing Loans: Dynamic Panel Evidence from South Asian Countries," DSSR Discussion Papers 64, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    7. Fatima Zohra Marouf & Zeyneb Guellil, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Credit Risk: The Algerian Banking System," MIC 2017: Managing the Global Economy; Proceedings of the Joint International Conference, Monastier di Treviso, Italy, 24–27 May 2017,, University of Primorska Press.
    8. Nderitu Kingori, 2016. "Market Structure, Macroeconomic Shocks, and Banking Risk in Kenya," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 1(2), pages 81-113, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international banking; macroeconomic conditions; banking risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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