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Episodes of Large Capital Inflows, Banking and Currency Crises, and Sudden Stops

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  • Davide Furceri
  • Stéphanie Guichard
  • Elena Rusticelli

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between surges in capital inflows and the probability of subsequent banking, currency and balance-of-payment crises. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it shows that a large capital inflow episode increases substantially the probability of having a banking or a currency crisis in the two following years. The effect is especially large for the case of balance-of-payment crises. The paper also finds that the effect of large capital inflows is different depending on the type of flows characterizing the episode. In particular, large capital inflows that are debt driven significantly increase the probability of banking, currency and balance-of-payment crises, whereas inflows that are driven by equity portfolio investment or foreign direct investment have a negligible effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Furceri & Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2012. "Episodes of Large Capital Inflows, Banking and Currency Crises, and Sudden Stops," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-35, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:15:y:2012:i:1:p:1-35
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2012.01296.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Seung-Gwan Baek & Chi-Young Song, 2016. "On the Determinants of Surges and Stops in Foreign Loans: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 405-445, July.
    2. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:265-274 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Joyce, Joseph, 2016. "Partners, Not Debtors: The External Liabilities of Emerging Market Economies," MPRA Paper 73880, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Nakatani, Ryota, 2018. "Real and financial shocks, exchange rate regimes and the probability of a currency crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 60-73.
    5. Channarith Meng & Roberto Leon Gonzalez, 2017. "Credit Booms in Developing Countries: Are They Different from Those in Advanced and Emerging Market Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 547-579, July.
    6. Ghosh, Atish R. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2016. "Capital Inflow Surges and Consequences," ADBI Working Papers 585, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    7. Martijn J. Burger & Elena I. Ianchovichina, 2017. "Surges and stops in greenfield and M&A FDI flows to developing countries: analysis by mode of entry," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 411-432, May.
    8. Beatrice D. Scheubel & Livio Stracca, 2016. "What Do We Know About the Global Financial Safety Net? A New Comprehensive Data Set," CESifo Working Paper Series 6184, CESifo Group Munich.
    9. Masyita Crystallin & Levan Efremidze & Sungsoo Kim & Wahyu Nugroho & Ozan Sula & Thomas Willett, 2015. "How Common are Capital Flows Surges? How They are Measured Matters -a Lot," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 663-682, September.
    10. repec:mtp:titles:0262037165 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2012. "The Consequences of Banking Crises for Public Debt," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 289-307, December.
    12. Stracca, Livio & Scheubel, Beatrice, 2016. "What do we know about the global financial safety net? Rationale, data and possible evolution," Occasional Paper Series 177, European Central Bank.
    13. Jason Rastovski, 2016. "The Changing Relationship between Banking Crises and Capital Inflows," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 514-530, May.
    14. repec:kap:iecepo:v:15:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10368-017-0406-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Joseph P. Joyce, 2018. "External balance sheets as countercyclical crisis buffers," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 305-329, April.

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