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Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs

Author

Listed:
  • Mrs. Poonam Gupta
  • Mr. Barry J. Eichengreen
  • Mr. Ashoka Mody

Abstract

Could a high-access, quick-disbursing "insurance facility" in the IMF help to reduce the incidence of sharp interruptions in capital flows ("sudden stops")? We contribute to the debate around this question by analyzing the impact of conventional IMF-supported programs on the incidence of sudden stops. Correcting for the non-random assignment of programs, we find that sudden stops are fewer and generally less severe when an IMF arrangement exists and that this form of "insurance" works best for countries with strong fundamentals. In contrast there is no evidence that a Fund-supported program attenuates the output effects of capital account reversals if these nonetheless occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Mrs. Poonam Gupta & Mr. Barry J. Eichengreen & Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2006. "Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 2006/101, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/101
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; IMF program; break; GDP; trade balance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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