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Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets

In: Handbook of Monetary Economics

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey

Abstract

The characteristics that distinguish most developing countries, compared to large industrialized countries, include: greater exposure to supply shocks in general and trade volatility in particular, procyclicality of both domestic fiscal policy and international finance, lower credibility with respect to both price stability and default risk, and other imperfect institutions. These characteristics warrant appropriate models. Models of dynamic inconsistency in monetary policy and the need for central bank independence and commitment to nominal targets apply even more strongly to developing countries. But because most developing countries are price-takers on world markets, the small open economy model, with nontraded goods, is often more useful than the two-country two-good model. Contractionary effects of devaluation are also far more important for developing countries, particularly the balance sheet effects that arise from currency mismatch. The exchange rate was the favored nominal anchor for monetary policy in inflation stabilizations of the late 1980s and early 1990s. After the currency crises of 1994-2001, the conventional wisdom anointed inflation targeting as the preferred monetary regime in place of exchange rate targets. But events associated with the global crisis of 2007-2009 have revealed limitations to the choice of CPI for the role of price index. The participation of emerging markets in global finance is a major reason why they have by now earned their own large body of research, but it also means that they remain highly prone to problems of asymmetric information, illiquidity, default risk, moral hazard and imperfect institutions. Many of the models designed to fit emerging market countries were built around such financial market imperfections, and few economists thought this inappropriate. With the global crisis of 2007-2009, the tables have turned: economists should now consider drawing on the models of emerging market crises to try to understand the unexpected imperfections and failures of advanced-country financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:monchp:3-25
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    2. Jalali-Naini, Ahmad Reza & Naderian, Mohammad Amin, 2020. "Financial vulnerability, fiscal procyclicality and inflation targeting in developing commodity exporting economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 84-97.
    3. Pei-Fen Chen & Jhih-Hong Zeng & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Diversification–Profitability Linkage in Banking: Evidences from Emerging Market Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 576-597, December.
    4. Muhammad Ali Choudhary & Saima Naeem & Abdul Faheem & Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Farooq Pasha, 2011. "Formal Sector Price Discoveries: Preliminary Results from a Developing Country," SBP Working Paper Series 42, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    5. Cobham, David & Song, Mengdi, 2020. "How do countries choose their monetary policy frameworks?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1187-1207.
    6. Zhang, Zhichao & Chau, Frankie & Zhang, Wenting, 2013. "Exchange rate determination and dynamics in China: A market microstructure analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 303-316.
    7. Cobham, David, 2018. "A comprehensive classification of monetary policy frameworks for advanced and emerging economies," MPRA Paper 84737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Muhammad Ali Choudhary & Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Sajawal Khan & Muhammad Rehman, 2012. "Procyclical Monetary Policy and Governance," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 8, pages 33-43.
    9. Andres Fernandez & Juan Herreno, 2013. "Equilibrium Unemployment during Financial Crises," Research Department Publications IDB-WP-390, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    10. Georgiadis, Georgios & Zhu, Feng, 2021. "Foreign-currency exposures and the financial channel of exchange rates: Eroding monetary policy autonomy in small open economies?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    11. Fayyaz Hussain & Constance Kabibi Kimuli, 2012. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment to Developing Countries," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 8, pages 13-31.
    12. J. Ramos-Tallada., 2013. "The IMF and management of capital flows: the long road towards a pragmatic approach," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 31, pages 63-85, Autumn.
    13. Mr. R. G Gelos & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Mr. Luis Brandao-Marques & Yi Xue, 2020. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 2020/035, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Guillermo Perry & Eduardo García, 2016. "The Influence of Multilateral Development Institutions on Latin American Development Strategies. Special Issue of International Development Policy on Latin America," Documentos CEDE 014591, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    15. Choudhary, M. Ali & Faheem, Abdul & Hanif, M. Nadim & Naeem, Saima & Pasha, Farooq, 2016. "Price setting & price stickiness: A developing economy perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 44-61.
    16. Tara Iyer, 2016. "Optimal Monetary Policy in an Open Emerging Market Economy," Working Paper Series WP-2016-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    17. Shigeto Kitano, 2016. "Predetermined exchange rate, monetary targeting, and inflation targeting regimes," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 12(3), pages 233-256, September.
    18. Makram El-Shagi & Kiril Tochkov, 2021. "Divisia Monetary Aggregates for Russia: Money Demand, GDP Nowcasting, and the Price Puzzle," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2021/1, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    19. Szilágyi, Katalin & Kiss, Áron, 2014. "Miért más ez a válság, mint a többi?. Az adósságleépítés szerepe a nagy recesszióban [Why is this crisis different?. The role of deleveraging in the great recession]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 949-974.
    20. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Trade Balance Adjustment: A Multi-Country Empirical Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 655-675, September.
    21. Petar Chobanov & Amine LAHIANI & Nikolay NENOVSKY, 2010. "Money Market Integration and Sovereign CDS Spreads Dynamics in the New EU States," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1253, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    22. Kumar, Ankit & Dash, Pradyumna, 2020. "Changing transmission of monetary policy on disaggregate inflation in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 109-125.
    23. Antoine GODIN & Sakir-Devrim YILMAZ, 2020. "Modelling Small Open Developing Economies in a Financialized World: A Stock-Flow Consistent Prototype Growth Model," Working Paper 5eb7e0e8-560f-4ce6-91a5-5, Agence française de développement.
    24. Thanaset Chevapatrakul & Juan Paez-Farrell, 2018. "How effective is inflation targeting in emerging market economies?," Working Papers 2018005, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.

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    Keywords

    Central Bank; Crises; Developing Countries; Emerging Markets; Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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