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Issues in the Choice of a Monetary Regime for India


  • Warwick J. McKibbin


  • Kanhaiya Singh


Economic liberalization and financial sector reforms in India commenced in 1990. An important issue currently facing India and the focus of a lively debate, is the question of the appropriate regime for conducting monetary policy in an economy undergoing structural reforms. To add to this important debate, this paper summarizes the state of the current policy debate on selecting a monetary regime for India and presents estimates of the impact of alternative monetary regimes in the face of a variety of shocks to the Indian economy. The impacts of shocks to aggregate demand, productivity growth and risk perceptions are considered under the three policy regimes of money targeting, inflation targeting and nominal income targeting. It is concluded that a monetary target performs worst among the three regimes while the results of income targeting are most encouraging. Inflation targeting only performs well for demand shocks but causes greater volatility in real output under both productivity shocks and risk reassessment shocks. As there is a general trend towards inflation targeting in industrialized economies, this particular results should give some caution to Indian monetary authorities in following the industrialized world in their choice of an inflation-targeting regime. The most likely shocks to face India in a period of structural reform are different to those facing industrialized economies and are less well handled under an inflation target regime compared to a nominal income-targeting regime.

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  • Warwick J. McKibbin & Kanhaiya Singh, 2000. "Issues in the Choice of a Monetary Regime for India," ASARC Working Papers 2000-01, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:pas:asarcc:2000-01

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2003. "Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 10032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?," Scholarly Articles 4735392, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    3. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Comparison Of Product Price Targeting And Other Monetary Anchor Options, For Commodity Exporters In Latin America," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Fall 2011), pages 1-70, August.
    4. Bank for International Settlements, 2006. "Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 31.
    5. Guy Debelle, 2001. "The Case for Inflation Targeting in East Asian Countries," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: David Gruen & John Simon (ed.), Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Jeffrey Frankel, 2014. "Nominal GDP Targeting for Middle-Income Countries," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(3), pages 1-14.
    7. Pranjul Bhandari & Jeffrey Frankel, 2014. "The Best of Rules and Discretion: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting in India," CID Working Papers 284, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    8. repec:eee:reecon:v:71:y:2017:i:3:p:491-506 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Kaushik Bhattacharya, 2006. "Monetary policy approaches in India," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation, volume 31, pages 74-102 Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Bhandari, Pranjul & Frankel, Jeffrey, 2017. "Nominal GDP targeting for developing countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 491-506.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications


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