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A Comparison of Product Price Targeting and Other Monetary Anchor Options for Commodity Exporters in Latin America

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey A.

Abstract

Seven possible nominal variables are considered as candidates to be the anchor or target for monetary policy. The context is countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), which tend to be price takers on world markets, to produce commodity exports subject to volatile terms of trade, and to experience procyclical international finance. Three candidates are exchange rate pegs: to the dollar, euro and SDR. One candidate is orthodox Inflation Targeting. Three candidates represent proposals for a new sort of inflation targeting that differs from the usual focus on the CPI, in that prices of export commodities are given substantial weight and prices of imports are not: PEP (Peg the Export Price), PEPI (Peg an Export Price Index), and PPT (Product Price Targeting). The selling point of these production-based price indices is that each could serve as a nominal anchor while yet accommodating terms of trade shocks, in comparison to a CPI target. All seven nominal anchors deliver greater overall nominal price stability in our simulations than the inflationary historical monetary regimes actually followed by LAC countries (with the exception of Panama). A dollar peg does not particularly stabilize domestic commodity prices. As hypothesized, a product price target generally does a better job of stabilizing the real domestic prices of tradable goods than does a CPI target. CPI-targeters such as Brazil, Chile, and Peru respond to increases in world prices of imported oil with monetary policy that is sufficiently tight to appreciate their currencies, an undesirable property. A Product Price targeter or PEP country would respond to increases in world prices of its commodity exports by appreciation, a desirable property.

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Comparison of Product Price Targeting and Other Monetary Anchor Options for Commodity Exporters in Latin America," Scholarly Articles 9642641, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  • Handle: RePEc:hrv:hksfac:9642641
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    Cited by:

    1. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2017. "How to Cope with Volatile Commodity Export Prices: Four Proposals," Working Paper Series rwp17-033, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    2. Lukas Vogel & Stefan Hohberger & Bernhard Herz, 2015. "Should Commodity Exporters Peg to the Export Price?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 486-501, August.
    3. Gan, Pei-Tha, 2014. "The precise form of financial integration: Empirical evidence for selected Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-219.
    4. Drago Bergholt, 2014. "Monetary Policy in Oil Exporting Economies," Working Papers No 5/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    5. Iyer, Tara, 2020. "The welfare implications of exchange rate choices in developing agricultural economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Algozhina, Aliya, 2016. "Monetary Policy Rule, Exchange Rate Regime, and Fiscal Policy Cyclicality in a Developing Oil Economy," Dynare Working Papers 49, CEPREMAP.
    7. Warwick J McKibbin & Augustus J Panton, 2018. "Twenty-five Years of Inflation Targeting in Australia: Are There Better Alternatives for the Next Twenty-five Years?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Benkhodja & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Oil Stabilization Fund and the Dutch Disease," Working Papers hal-01796312, HAL.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Scholarly Articles 8694932, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    10. Hossein Tavakolian & Hamed Ghiaie, 2019. "Optimal Inflation Targeting in a Dual-Exchange Rate Oil Economy," THEMA Working Papers 2019-09, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    11. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja, 2014. "The Dutch disease effect in a high versus low oil dependent countries," Post-Print hal-01385965, HAL.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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