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Should Commodity Exporters Peg to the Export Price?

Author

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  • Lukas Vogel
  • Stefan Hohberger
  • Bernhard Herz

Abstract

To account for the specific situation of commodity exporters, pegging to export prices (PEP) has been proposed elsewhere as an alternative to other conventional monetary regimes such as an exchange rate peg or inflation targeting. PEP is supposed to deliver automatic accommodation to terms-of-trade shocks, while retaining the credibility gain from a nominal anchor. This paper analyzes the PEP proposal in a dynamic general-equilibrium model and compares it with a standard Taylor rule, consumer price index (CPI)-level targeting and a nominal exchange rate peg. Judged by the degree of output stabilization, PEP performs very similar to CPI targeting for export demand as well as domestic demand shocks and underperforms in the case of shocks to the export price. The results suggest that PEP is not superior to conventional CPI targeting from a macroeconomic stabilization perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas Vogel & Stefan Hohberger & Bernhard Herz, 2015. "Should Commodity Exporters Peg to the Export Price?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 486-501, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:19:y:2015:i:3:p:486-501
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/rode.12172
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2003. "A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Commodity Exporters: Peg the Export Price ('PEP')," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 61-88, Spring.
    2. Acosta, Pablo A. & Lartey, Emmanuel K.K. & Mandelman, Federico S., 2009. "Remittances and the Dutch disease," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 102-116, September.
    3. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Comparison Of Product Price Targeting And Other Monetary Anchor Options, For Commodity Exporters In Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2011), pages 1-70, August.
    4. Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & Shu-Chun S Yang & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2013. "Public Investment in Resource-Abundant Developing Countries," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 92-129, April.
    5. Oxana Malakhovskaya & Alexey Minabutdinov, 2014. "Are commodity price shocks important? A Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for Russia," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 148-180.
    6. Vogel, Lukas, 2017. "Structural reforms at the zero bound," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 74-90.
    7. Giannoni, Marc P., 2014. "Optimal interest-rate rules and inflation stabilization versus price-level stabilization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 110-129.
    8. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "Price-Level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 277-295, August.
    9. Jeffrey Frankel, 2014. "Nominal GDP Targeting for Middle-Income Countries," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(3), pages 1-14.
    10. Christian Gianella & Corinne Chanteloup, 2007. "Assessing Russia's Non-fuel Trade Elasticities: Does the Russian Economy React 'Normally' to Exchange Rate Movements?," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 153-166.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2005. "Peg the export price index: A proposed monetary regime for small countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 495-508, June.
    12. Vestin, David, 2006. "Price-level versus inflation targeting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1361-1376, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Drygalla, Andrej, 2017. "Monetary policy in an oil-dependent economy in the presence of multiple shocks," IWH Discussion Papers 14/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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