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A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Commodity Exporters: Peg the Export Price ('PEP')

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey

Abstract

On the one hand, the big selling points of floating exchange rates--monetary independence and accommodation of terms of trade shocks--have not lived up to their promise. On the other hand, proposals for credible institutional monetary commitments to nominal anchors have each run aground on their own peculiar shoals. Rigid pegs to the dollar are dangerous when the dollar appreciates. Money targeting does not work when there is a velocity shock. CPI targeting is not viable when there is a large import price shock. And the gold standard fails when there are large fluctuations in the world gold market. This paper advances a new proposal called PEP: peg the export price. Most applicable for countries that are specialized in the production of a particular mineral or agricultural product, the proposal calls on them to commit to fix the price of that commodity in terms of domestic currency. A series of simulations shows how such a proposal would have worked for oil producers over the period 1970-2000. The paths of real oil prices, exports, and debt are simulated under alternative regimes. An illustrative finding is that countries that suffered a declining world market in oil or other export commodities in the late 1990s would under the PEP proposal have automatically experienced a depreciation and a boost to exports when it was most needed. The argument for PEP is that it simultaneously delivers automatic accommodation to terms of trade shocks, as floating exchange rates are supposed to do, while retaining the credibility-enhancing advantages of a nominal anchor, as dollar pegs are supposed to do. Copyright 2003 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Frankel, Jeffrey, 2003. "A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Commodity Exporters: Peg the Export Price ('PEP')," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 61-88, Spring.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:6:y:2003:i:1:p:61-88
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    2. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Comparison Of Product Price Targeting And Other Monetary Anchor Options, For Commodity Exporters In Latin America," ECONOMIA JOURNAL, THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2011), pages 1-70, August.
    3. Zubair Iqbal, 2010. "The United Arab Emirates: Exchange Rate Regime Options," Chapters,in: Currency Union and Exchange Rate Issues, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Tiago V. De V. Cavalcanti & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2015. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 857-873, September.
    5. Aasim M. Husain, 2006. "To Peg or Not to Peg; A Template for Assessing the Nobler," IMF Working Papers 06/54, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Lukas Vogel & Stefan Hohberger & Bernhard Herz, 2015. "Should Commodity Exporters Peg to the Export Price?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 486-501, August.
    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. repec:eee:eecrev:v:101:y:2018:i:c:p:157-180 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-046 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Aasim M. Husain, 2006. "Choosing the Right Exchange Rate Regime for Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 91-111.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2005. "Peg the export price index: A proposed monetary regime for small countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 495-508, June.
    12. repec:eee:pacfin:v:46:y:2017:i:pb:p:337-354 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Byambasuren, Tsenguunjav & Erdenebold, Uranzaya & Otgonbayar, Baasansuren, 2013. "Policy Challenge of Resource-Rich Developing Countries: Case of Mongolia," MPRA Paper 61559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Bodart, Vincent & Candelon, Bertrand & Carpantier, Jean-Francois, 2015. "Real exchanges rates, commodity prices and structural factors in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 264-284.
    15. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Scholarly Articles 8694932, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    16. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    17. Drago Bergholt, 2014. "Monetary Policy in Oil Exporting Economies," Working Papers No 5/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    18. Ruslan Aliyev, 2014. "Determinants of the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Resource-Rich Countries," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp527, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    19. Fernholz, Ricardo T. & Mitchener, Kris James & Weidenmier, Marc, 2017. "Pulling up the tarnished anchor: The end of silver as a global unit of account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 209-228.
    20. Boschi, Melisso & Pieroni, Luca, 2009. "Aluminium market and the macroeconomy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-207.
    21. Ronald MacDonald & Abdulrazak Al Faris (ed.), 2010. "Currency Union and Exchange Rate Issues," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13764, April.
    22. M. S. Rafiq, 2011. "Sources of economic fluctuations in oil‐exporting economies: implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 70-91, January.
    23. Virginie Coudert & Valérie Mignon & Alexis Penot, 2008. "Oil Price and the Dollar," Post-Print halshs-00353404, HAL.

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