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Are commodity price shocks important? A Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for Russia

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  • Oxana Malakhovskaya
  • Alexey Minabutdinov

Abstract

This paper constructs a DSGE model for an economy with commodity exports. We estimate the model using Russian data, making a special focus on quantitative effects of commodity price dynamics. There is a widespread belief that economic activity in Russia crucially depends on oil prices, but quantitative estimates are scarce. We estimate an oil price effect on the Russian economy in a general equilibrium framework. Our setup is similar to those of Kollmann (2001) and Dam and Linaa (2005), but we extend their models by explicitly accounting for oil revenues. In addition to standard supply, demand, cost-push, and monetary policy shocks, we include the shock of commodity export revenues. The main objective of the paper is to identify the contribution of structural shocks to business cycle fluctuations in the Russian economy. We found that despite a strong impact on GDP from commodity export shocks, business cycles in Russia are mostly domestically based.

Suggested Citation

  • Oxana Malakhovskaya & Alexey Minabutdinov, 2014. "Are commodity price shocks important? A Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for Russia," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 148-180.
  • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:4:y:2014:i:1/2:p:148-180
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    1. Huntington, Hillard G. & Barrios, James J. & Arora, Vipin, 2019. "Review of key international demand elasticities for major industrializing economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Shulgin, A., 2017. "Two-Dimensional Monetary Policy Shocks in DSGE-Model Estimated for Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 75-115.
    3. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner & Andrés Yany, 2015. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Investment in Commodity-Exporting Economies," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Caputo & Roberto Chang (ed.),Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Policy, edition 1, volume 22, chapter 5, pages 135-193, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Georgios Georgiadis & Martina Jancokova, 2017. "Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2017_008, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    5. Ekaterina Pyltsyna, 2018. "The Change Of Fiscal Multiplier When Switching From Managed Exchange Rate Regime To Thefloating One," HSE Working papers WP BRP 206/EC/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    6. Рубинштейн Александр Яковлевич, "undated". "Рациональность & Иррациональность: Эволюция Смыслов
      [Rationality & Irrationality: Evolution of the Senses]
      ," Working papers a:pru175:ye:2017:1, Institute of Economics.
    7. Иващенко Сергей Михайлович, 2016. "Многосекторная Модель Динамического Стохастического Общего Экономического Равновесия Российской Экономики," Vestnik of the St. Petersburg University. Series 5. Economics Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Серия 5. Экономика, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное бюджетное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет», issue 3, pages 176-202.
    8. Fantazzini, Dean & Shangina, Tamara, 2019. "The importance of being informed: forecasting market risk measures for the Russian RTS index future using online data and implied volatility over two decades," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 55, pages 5-31.
    9. Drygalla, Andrej, 2017. "Monetary policy in an oil-dependent economy in the presence of multiple shocks," IWH Discussion Papers 14/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    10. Drobyshevskiy, Sergei (Дробышевский, Сергей) & Polbin, Andrei (Полбин, Андрей), 2015. "Decomposition of the Structural Shocks Contribution to the Russian Macroeconomic Indicators Dynamics on the Basis of the DSGE Model
      [Декомпозиция Динамики Макроэкономических Показателей Рф На Основ
      ," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 2, pages 20-42.
    11. Lukas Vogel & Stefan Hohberger & Bernhard Herz, 2015. "Should Commodity Exporters Peg to the Export Price?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 486-501, August.
    12. Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей) & Polbin, Andrey (Полбин, Андрей), 2017. "Scenario Analysis of the Impact of Reducing the Export Duty on Oil on the Russian Economy within the Framework of the General Equilibrium Model
      [Сценарный Анализ Влияния На Российскую Экономику Сни
      ," Working Papers 051734, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    13. Zubarev, Andrey V. (Зубарев, Андрей) & Polbin, Andrey V. (Ролбин, Андрей), 2016. "Estimation of Macroeconomic Effects from the Decline in Oil Export Duty
      [Оценка Макроэкономических Эффектов От Снижения Экспортной Пошлины На Нефть]
      ," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 8-35, December.
    14. Fantazzini, Dean, 2014. "Editorial for the Special Issue on 'Computational Methods for Russian Economic and Financial Modelling'," MPRA Paper 55430, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. O. Malakhovskaya., 2016. "DSGE-based forecasting: What should our perspective be?," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 12.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodity price shocks; Bayesian estimation; DSGE model; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium; Russia; business cycles; oil price effect; commodity prices; modelling; oil prices; national economy; oil revenues; supply shocks; demand shocks; cost-push shocks; monetary policy shocks; commodity export revenues; structural shocks; business cycle fluctuations.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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