Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

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Top JEL
/ E: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
/ / E3: Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
/ / / E37: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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This JEL code is mentioned in the following RePEc Biblio entries:

1. Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables
2. Nowcasting

2026

• Jordan Kjosevski, 2026, "Coherence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in the Function of Reducing Inflation in the European Union," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 1, pages 312-332, March.
• Zigang Li & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Wang Renxuan, 2026, "Understanding Rationality and Disagreement in House Price Expectations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, volume 39, issue 2, pages 297-342.
• Bahaa Aly, Tarek, 2026, "Global Economic Cycles Unveiled: A Hybrid TCN-HMM Approach for Regime Dynamics Across Eight Nations," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 127574, Jan.
• Kumar, Labesh, 2026, "The Output Gap: Method Choice, Data Revisions, and Policy Implications," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 127829, Jan.
• Fantazzini, Dean & Kurbatskii, Alexey, 2026, "Nowcasting and Forecasting Russian Regional CPI: Sparse Models and the Time-Varying Value of Online Data," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 128456.
• Khan, Nicholas, 2026, "The Hidden Clock: A Physical Pacemaker for Juglar, Kuznets, and Kondratiev Cycles," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 128714, Mar.
• Hardy, Nicolas & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2026, "Generalized Bayesian Composite Quantile Regression with an Application to Equity Premium Forecasting," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 128752, Apr.
• Labastidas, Esteban, 2026, "A Hybrid Early-Warning System for Inflation in an Emerging Market: Combining Econometric Models, an Agent-Based Decomposition with Heterogeneous Expectations, a Large Language Model, and a Multi-Output Agent Architecture," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 128779, Apr.
• ZENAGUI, Sid Ahmed, 2026, "Advanced Monetary Theory and Policy: New Keynesian Economics, DSGE Models, and Central Banking," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 129218, May.
• Tanisa Tawichsri & Suppawong Tuarob & Nuwat Nookhwun & Chinjuta Sangasaeng, 2026, "News-Based Inflation Expectations: LLM-Assisted Measurement and Forecasting," PIER Discussion Papers, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, number 252, May.
• Ia Vardishvili, 2026, "Entry Decision, the Option to Delay Entry, and Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, volume 59, January, DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101319.
• Fedor Minichev, 2026, "The potential of using textual data to estimate inflation expectations in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), volume 81, pages 26-45.
• Łukasz Mamica & Kamil Makieła & Renata Wróbel-Rotter & Monika Mazur-Bubak & Jakub Głowacki & Michał Król & Paweł Bajołek, 2026, "The Relationship Between Liquefied Petroleum Gas and Crude Oil Prices: A Case Study of the Polish Fuel Market," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 23-38.
• Emanuel Nussli & Rachel Arulraj-Cordonier & Flurina Strasser & Marko Nanut Petrič & Morten Bech & Antonio Pipino, 2026, "From listings to all-tenant rents: A probabilistic model," Working Papers, Swiss National Bank, number 2026-02.
• Sidney M. Caetano & João H. G. Mazzeu, 2026, "Short-term inflation expectations evaluation in the presence of instabilities," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 70, issue 2, pages 1-27, February, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-025-02850-w.
• Elliot Beck & Michael Wolf, 2026, "Forecasting inflation with the hedged random forest," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 70, issue 2, pages 1-36, February, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-025-02879-x.
• Tural Yusifzada & Hasan Comert & Vugar Ahmadov, 2026, "A composite approach to nonlinear inflation dynamics in BRICS countries and Türkiye," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 70, issue 3, pages 1-40, March, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-026-02902-9.
• Bibiana Lanzilotta & Gabriela Mordecki & Pablo Tapie & Joaquín Torres Pérez, 2026, "Structural Breaks in Uncertainty and the Business Cycle in a Small and Open Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), volume 22, issue 1, pages 1-28, April, DOI: 10.1007/s41549-025-00117-y.
• Gilliane De Gorostiza-Roudnitski, 2026, "Reliable Output Gap Estimates for Emerging Asian Economies," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), volume 22, issue 1, pages 89-122, April, DOI: 10.1007/s41549-026-00122-9.
• Elisa Flori & Sandra Paterlini & Francesco Pattarin & Marco Villani, 2026, "Evaluation of the pandemic impact on global automotive supply chain through network analysis," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, volume 21, issue 1, pages 17-48, January, DOI: 10.1007/s11403-024-00440-0.
• Ndubuisi O. Chukwu & Ambrose Nnaemeka Omeje, 2026, "Global economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and stock returns in Nigeria," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, volume 25, issue 1, pages 117-136, January, DOI: 10.1007/s10258-025-00279-8.
• Raffaella Coppier & Elisabetta Michetti & Luisa Scaccia, 2026, "Potentiality of Benford’s law in deriving a firm-level evasion indicator for Italy," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, volume 60, issue 2, pages 7805-7827, April, DOI: 10.1007/s11135-026-02578-4.
• Davide Romaniello & Antonella Stirati, 2026, "Potential output versus target unemployment in the EU fiscal framework: implications for the Italian economy of a change in perspective," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, volume 7, issue 1, pages 1-26, December, DOI: 10.1007/s43253-026-00169-5.
• Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski & Philipp Wegmüller, 2026, "Estimating a weighted output gap for Switzerland: methodology and application," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, volume 162, issue 1, pages 1-25, December, DOI: 10.1186/s41937-026-00149-w.
• Merve Capan & Ahmet Gulveren & Tuba Ozsevinc, 2026, "A New Method for Measuring Underlying Inflation in Türkiye," Working Papers, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, number 2605.
• Garratt Anthony & Petrella Ivan & Zhang Yunyi, 2026, "The Predictive Content of U.S. Energy Information Administration Oil Market Forecasts," Working papers, Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino, number 104, Mar.
• Meijers, Huub & Muysken, Joan, 2026, "Redirect investment to stimulate the economy," MERIT Working Papers, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT), number 003, Feb, DOI: 10.53330/EPZP7795.
• Dany-Knedlik Geraldine & Holtemöller Oliver & Kooths Stefan & Schmidt Torsten & Wollmershäuser Timo, 2026, "Energiepreisschock überlagert Fiskalimpuls – Wachstumskräfte versiegen," Wirtschaftsdienst, Sciendo, volume 106, issue 4, pages 253-257, DOI: 10.2478/wd-2026-0065.
• Jesús Fernández‐Villaverde & Isaiah Hull, 2026, "Dynamic programming in economics on a quantum annealer," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, volume 17, issue 1, pages 1-37, January, DOI: 10.3982/QE2555.
• Verona, Fabio, 2026, "Forecasting inflation: The sum of the cycles outperforms the whole," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, number 1/2026.
• Heinisch, Katja & van Norden, Simon & Wildi, Marc, 2026, "Smooth and persistent forecasts of German GDP: Balancing accuracy and stability," IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), number 1/2026, DOI: 10.18717/dp99kr-7336.
• Drygalla, Andrej & Heinisch, Katja & Holtemöller, Oliver & Lindner, Axel & Schult, Christoph & Zeddies, Götz, 2026, "Einhaltung der EU-Fiskalregeln erfordert umfangreiche Konsolidierung: Mittelfristige Projektion der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung und der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland," IWH Policy Notes, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), number 1/2026, DOI: 10.18717/pnb1fm-ja32.
• Knüppel, Malte & Pavlova, Lora, 2026, "Survey design and professional forecasters: The case of uncertainty in the US SPF," ZEW Discussion Papers, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 26-017.
• Ina Hajdini, 2026, "Mis-specified Forecasts and Myopia in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, volume 18, issue 2, pages 188-226, April, DOI: 10.1257/mac.20230054.
• Gülbahar Atasever & Bora Süslü, 2026, "A Sectoral Approach to Inflation Expectations in the Turkish Economy: The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Time-Varying LA-VAR Granger Causality Analysis," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, volume 10, issue 4, pages 1419-1445, DOI: 10.30784/epfad.1721270.
• Төлепберген Әлішер // Tolepbergen Alisher, 2026, "Новый индикатор базовой инфляции для Казахстана // A New Core Inflation Indicator for Kazakhstan," Working Papers, National Bank of Kazakhstan, number #2026-6.
• Niko Hauzenberger Massimiliano Marcellino Michael Pfarrhofer Anna Stelzer, 2026, "Direct Gaussian Process Predictive Regressions with Mixed Frequency Data," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, number 26265.
• Dalibor Stevanovic, 2026, "Who Saw It Coming? Historical Experienceand the 2021 Inflation Forecast Failure," Working Papers, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, number 26-02, Apr.
• Nicolás Bonino-Gayoso & Mónica Correa-López, 2026, "Unexpecting the Expected in Real-Time Inflation Forecasting: The Inflation Expectations Channel?," Working Papers, Banco de España, number 2613, Mar, DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/42915.
• Luca Bacco & Tiziana Laureti & Juri Marcucci & Luigi Palumbo & Daniele Sasso & Luca Vollero, 2026, "Nowcasting the Italian consumer price index using online prices and machine learning," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 1026, Jun.
• Filippo Natoli & Sharath Sonti, 2026, "Overconfident forecasters and the impact of inflation information: evidence from a randomized survey experiment," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 1532, Apr.
• Wilmer Martinez-Rivera & Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano, 2026, "Approach to Estimating Confidence Intervals for a Business Cycle," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, number 1348, Mar, DOI: 10.32468/be.1348.
• Aysegul Sahin & Ilyas Siklar, 2026, "A New Growth Indicator For Türkiye: Monthly Gdp Estimates Using Factor Models," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, volume 71, issue 248, pages 33-63, January –.
• Ugo Dubois & Bruno Ducoudré & Raphaël Martin & Anna Petronevich & Caterina Seghini & Camille Thubin & Harri Turunen, 2026, "Re-estimated FR-BDF: New Features and an Assessment of Monetary Policy Tightening in France," Working papers, Banque de France, number 1044.
• Mikael Juselius & Wenzhe Li, 2026, "The strength of the inflation-output link in China," BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 1353, May.
• Doan Gia Bao Ngoc & Luu Minh Quan & Truong Thi Thanh Ha & Nguyen Duc Minh Tan & Phan Thi Minh Huyen & Tran Duy Thanh, 2026, "Building a new hybrid machine learning model for improvement insurance cross-sell prediction," HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE - ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY, volume 16, issue 1, pages 93-111, DOI: 10.46223/HCMCOUJS.econ.en.16.1.4306.
• Mark Setterfield & George Wheaton, 2026, "Animal Spirits and the Goodwin Pattern," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, volume 77, issue 1, pages 2-16, February, DOI: 10.1111/meca.12506.
• Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2026, "Using Transformers and Reinforcement Learning as Narrative Filters in Macroeconomics," Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School, number No 02/2026, Feb.
• Nicolas Hardy & Dimitris Korobilis, 2026, "Generalized Bayesian Composite Quantile Regression with an Application to Equity Premium Forecasting," Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School, number No 04/2026, Apr.
• Tom Doan, 2026, "MATHESONSTAVREVEL2013: RATS programs to replicate Matheson-Stavrev(2013) non-linear state-space model," Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics, number RTJ00054, revised .
• Panagiotis Delis & Georgios Kontogeorgos, 2026, "Outlier-robust evaluation of fixed-event macroeconomic survey expectations," Working Papers, Bank of Greece, number 356, Jan, DOI: 10.52903/wp2026356.
• Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2026, "Trend inflation and inflation expectations in high dimensional vector autoregressions," Working Papers, Bank of Greece, number 360, Mar, DOI: 10.52903/wp2026360.
• Ko Adachi & Yoshiyuki Kurachi & Masato Okamoto & Tomohiro Sugo & Akitoshi Toyoda, 2026, "Supply Constraints and Inflation Dynamics," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series, Bank of Japan, number 26-E-3, Feb.
• Jonas Andersson & Øivind Anti Nilsen & Hans J. Skaug, 2026, "Mixed Frequency Data in a Heterogenous Sticky Price Model," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12379.
• Lovisa Reiche & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2026, "Who’s on Fire? Household Characteristics and the Formation of Inflation Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12450.
• Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2026, "Using Transformers and Reinforcement Learning as Narrative Filters in Macroeconomics," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12454.
• Carlos Madeira, 2026, "The Life Experience of Central Bankers and Monetary Policy Decisions: A Cross-country Dataset," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 1073, Mar.
• Dalibor Stevanovic, 2026, "Who Saw It Coming? Historical Experience and the 2021 Inflation Forecast Failure," CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO, number 2026s-06, Apr.
• Filip Blaha & Jan Botka & Josef Sveda & Ales Michl, 2026, "AI-Based Forecasting of Czech Inflation: Quantile Regression Forests with Dynamic Weights," Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, number 2026/09, Apr.
• Hauzenberger, Niko & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Stelzer, Anna, 2026, "Direct Gaussian Process Predictive Regressions with Mixed Frequency Data," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 21214, Feb.
• Kilian, Lutz & Plante, Michael D. & Richter, Alexander W. & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2026, "The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on U.S. Inflation: A Scenario Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 21373, Apr.
• Eraslan, Sercan & Fabbri, Andrea & Saiz, Lorena, 2026, "Short-term forecasting of euro area economic activity in an uncertain world," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, volume 8.
• Rigato, Rodolfo Dinis, 2026, "A least-squares filter for sequence-space models," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 3191, Feb.
• Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Meunier, Baptiste & Macalos, Joao & Milis, Julia & Pical, Thomas, 2026, "Can satellites predict oil demand?," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 3198, Feb.
• Delgado-Téllez, Mar & Ceglar, Andrej & Spiteri, Sarah & Lebouteiller, Léonore & Vorderobermeier, Nicole, 2026, "Beat the heat, the role of heat waves and droughts in regional EU economies," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 3248, Jun.
• Labonne, Paul & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2026, "Risky news and credit market sentiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 187, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2026.105331.
• Hommes, Cars & Poledna, Sebastian, 2026, "Forecasting economic crises: The Great Recession, the sovereign debt crisis, and COVID-19 in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 158, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107497.
• Prüser, Jan & Blagov, Boris, 2026, "Improving inference and forecasting in VAR models using cross-sectional information," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 160, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107618.
• Gallegati, Marco, 2026, "Financial and business cycles in the US: A non-parametric time–frequency investigation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, volume 81, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2025.102547.
• Goulet Coulombe, Philippe & Klieber, Karin, 2026, "An adaptive moving average for macroeconomic monitoring," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 259, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112773.
• Quinlan, Rory & Pinheiro, Roberto, 2026, "BLS payroll revisions: Forecasting recessions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 261, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112859.
• Morita, Hiroshi, 2026, "Forecasting GDP growth with stock returns: Time-series or cross-sectional information?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 263, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112946.
• He, Zhongfang, 2026, "A computationally efficient mixture innovation model for time-varying parameter regressions," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, volume 37, issue C, pages 250-269, DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.08.001.
• İpek, Mahmut S. & Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin, 2026, "Estimating euro area output gap dynamics: Evidence from the updated Area-Wide Model Database," European Economic Review, Elsevier, volume 181, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105179.
• Suveg, Melinda, 2026, "The working capital channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, volume 182, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105193.
• Li, Mengheng & Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2026, "Unpacking trend inflation: Evidence from a factor correlated unobserved components model of sticky and flexible prices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, volume 187, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105377.
• Jiang, Danyang & Li, Haoyuan & Tian, Xiaoli, 2026, "IPO underwriting incentives and macroeconomic forecast optimism," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, volume 87, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101704.
• Babiak, Mykola & Baruník, Jozef, 2026, "Deep learning, predictability, and optimal portfolio returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, volume 87, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101705.
• Maih, Junior & Omotosho, Babatunde S. & Yang, Bo, 2026, "Fuel subsidy removal and monetary policy adjustments in an oil-producing emerging economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 156, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109208.
• Garratt, Anthony & Petrella, Ivan & Zhang, Yunyi, 2026, "The predictive content of U.S. Energy Information Administration oil market forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 156, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109214.
• Klinkowska, Olga & Zadorozhna, Olha, 2026, "The yield curve strikes back: New evidence of its predictive power for economic activity and inflation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, volume 113, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105128.
• Booth, Geoffrey G. & Ellina, Polina & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 2026, "Decoding underprediction and anchoring in BEA's GDP backcasts," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, volume 83, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2026.101509.
• Li, Yan & Qian, Zongxin, 2026, "Systemic risk measures and macroeconomic shocks: An update of empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, volume 84, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2026.101520.
• Mitchell, James & Shiroff, Taylor & Braitsch, Hana, 2026, "Practice makes perfect: Learning effects with household point and density forecasts of inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 42, issue 2, pages 315-329, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.06.002.
• Bürgi, Constantin & Ortiz, Julio L., 2026, "Overreaction through anchoring," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 42, issue 2, pages 512-526, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.08.002.
• Enders, Zeno & Trautmann, Stefan T. & Vinogradov, Dmitri V., 2026, "Macroeconomic expectations: Formation, measurement, and consequences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, volume 247, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107620.
• Chen, Heng & Liu, Yicheng, 2026, "Expectation and confusion: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, volume 235, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2026.106189.
• Cotton, Christopher D., 2026, "Understanding CPI shelter inflation: The importance of the new-tenant/all-tenant rent gap," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, volume 71, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102117.
• Ann Xing, Bingxin & Feunou, Bruno & Tédongap, Roméo, 2026, "Robust regularities in the heterogeneity of consumer price inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, volume 163, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103536.
• Carballo, Patricia, 2026, "Exploring monetary policy with imperfect credibility: The case of Uruguay," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, volume 7, issue 2, DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2025.100164.
• Gemmi, Luca & Valchev, Rosen, 2026, "Biased surveys," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, volume 157, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103868.
• Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Kieren, Pascal & Trautmann, Stefan, 2026, "A choice-based approach to the measurement of inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, volume 157, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103882.
• Bargman, Daniil, 2026, "Latent variable modelling by supervised diffusion," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, volume 106, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104972.
• Fasanya, Ismail O. & Oyewole, Oluwatomisin J. & Saleh Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz, 2026, "The inflation-energy nexus in OPEC: A nonlinear forecasting perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, volume 107, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.105096.
• Magacho, Guilherme & Godin, Antoine & Spinola, Danilo & Yilmaz, Devrim, 2026, "Carbon tax recycling: Fostering reindustrialization in financialized developing economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, volume 77, issue C, pages 1-22, DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.008.
• Yilin Xiao & Jamie L. Cross, 2026, "Regularized Random Subspace Regressions," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2026-13, Feb.
• Philipp Wegmuller & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Marc Burri, 2026, "GDP-Flash Estimates: An International Assessment," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2026-26, Apr.
• Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Ping Wu, 2026, "Incorporating Micro Data into Macro Models Using Pseudo VARs," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, number 26-04, Feb, DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202604.
• Lutz Kilian & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2026, "The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on U.S. Inflation: A Scenario Analysis," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, number 2609, Apr, DOI: 10.24149/wp2609.
• M.Jahangir Alam & Shane Boyle & Huiyu Li & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2026, "ChatMacro: Evaluating Inflation Forecasts of Generative AI," Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, number 2026-04, Feb, DOI: 10.24148/wp2026-04.
• Peter Lihn Jørgensen & Kevin J. Lansing, 2026, "From Volcker to the Pandemic Era: History Dependent Anchoring of Short-Run Expected Inflation," Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, number 2026-08, Apr, DOI: 10.24148/wp2026-08.
• Kevin J. Lansing & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2026, "Measuring Inflation Shock Momentum," Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, number 2026-10, Apr, DOI: 10.24148/wp2026-10.
• Shengwu Du & Flora Haberkorn & Isabel Kitschelt & Seung Jung Lee & Anderson Monken & Dylan Saez & Kelsey Shipman & Sandeep Thakur, 2026, "Do Anecdotes Matter? Exploring the Beige Book through Textual Analysis from 1970 to 2025," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), number 2026-004, Jan, DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2026.004.
• Brooke Hathhorn & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2026, "Does Uncertainty Really Predict Recessions?," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 2026-010, May, DOI: 10.20955/wp.2026.010.
• Vera Barinova & Margarita Gvozdeva, 2026, "The role of SMEs in the development of tourism in Russia," Published Papers, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, number ppaper-2026-1619, revised 2026.
• Dobrislav Dobrev & Pawel J. Szerszen, 2026, "Missing Data Substitution for Enhanced Robust Filtering and Forecasting in State-Space Models," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2026-004, Mar.
• Emmanouil Sofianos & Thierry Betti & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Periklis Gogas, 2026, "Using DSGE and Machine Learning to Forecast Public Debt for France," Post-Print, HAL, number hal-05620169, Mar, DOI: 10.1002/for.70144.
• Drin, Svitlana & Zhuravlova, Anastasiia, 2026, "Real-Time Nowcasting of Kyiv’s Regional GRP Using Google Trends and Mixed-Frequency Data," Working Papers, Örebro University, School of Business, number 2026:1, Jan.
• Andrew B. Martinez & Alexander D. Schibuola & David Beckworth, 2026, "The Reliability of the Nominal GDP Expectations Gap," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, volume 22, issue 2, pages 525-557, April.
• Yusuke Oh & Mototsugu Shintani, 2026, "Forecasting Recessions Using Machine Learning on Text Data and Mixed-Frequency Predictors," IMES Discussion Paper Series, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, number 26-E-07, Mar.
• Juan Camilo Anzoátegui Zapata & Danilo Rodríguez Arango & Sergio David Sánchez Varela, 2026, "Effects of reputation and monetary policy communication on exchange rate uncertainty: evidence from an emerging market economy," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, volume 50, issue 1, pages 117-140, DOI: 10.3326/pse.50.1.6.
• Jakov Corak & Mihael Brusan, 2026, "Inflation in Croatia: a new era of forecasting with machine learning," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, volume 50, issue 1, pages 39-65, DOI: 10.3326/pse.50.1.3.
• Kwangwon Ahn & Hanwool Jang & Daeyong Lee, 2026, "Impact of Monetary Policy on Corporate Defaults and Associated Welfare Costs," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, volume 67, issue 4, pages 2697-2729, April, DOI: 10.1007/s10614-025-10950-z.
• Jiaxiang Huang & Renxiang Wang, 2026, "Prediction of Bank Systemic Risk Based on LSTM Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, volume 67, issue 4, pages 3067-3086, April, DOI: 10.1007/s10614-025-10960-x.
• Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2026, "Whose inflation expectations forecast best? Lessons from South African survey data," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, volume 23, issue 3, pages 1-36, July, DOI: 10.1007/s10368-026-00769-w.
• Julia Braun & Hans-Peter Burghof & Dag Einar Sommervoll, 2026, "The Effect of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer on the Stability of the Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, volume 72, issue 2, pages 235-283, February, DOI: 10.1007/s11146-024-09987-y.

2025

• Beatriz Muriel Hernandez & Ronaldo Terrazas, 2025, "Equilibrio y desalineamientos del tipo de cambio nominal en Bolivia (1990-2024)," Development Research Working Paper Series, Institute for Advanced Development Studies, number 13/2025, Dec.
• Evgenia L. Prokopjeva & Matvey S. Khoroshilov, 2025, "Accuracy of Market-Based and Survey-Based Inflation Expectations in Forecasting Russian Inflation," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, volume 24, issue 4, pages 1219-1248, DOI: https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.20.
• Christian Bayer & Luis Calderon & Moritz Kuhn, 2025, "Distributional Dynamics," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany, number 351, Jan.
• Borsos, András & Carro, Adrian & Glielmo, Aldo & Hinterschweiger, Marc & Kaszowska-Mojsa, Jagoda & Uluc, Arzu, 2025, "Agent-based modeling at central banks: recent developments and new challenges," INET Oxford Working Papers, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, number 2025-05, Feb.
• Боймирзаев Т. // Boymirzaev T., 2025, "Разработка краткосрочного прогноза инфляции для Узбекистана: применение моделей FAVAR и BVAR // Development of the Near-Term Forecast of Inflation for Uzbekistan: Application of FAVAR and BVAR models," Economic Review(National Bank of Kazakhstan), National Bank of Kazakhstan, issue 2 Special, pages 1-8.
• Nwabisa Florence Ndzama, 2025, "Assessing the ability of output gap estimates to forecast inflation in emerging countries," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, volume 11, issue 2, pages 144-167, June, DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.126000.
• Matteo Barigozzi & Claudio Lissona & Matteo Luciani, 2025, "Measuring the Euro Area Output Gap," Papers, arXiv.org, number 2505.05536, May, revised Nov 2025.
• Nicolas Hardy & Dimitris Korobilis, 2025, "Learning from crises: A new class of time-varying parameter VARs with observable adaptation," Papers, arXiv.org, number 2512.03763, Dec.
• Joshua Brault & Louis Phaneuf, 2025, "What Drives Low and Stable Inflation?," Working Papers, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, number 25-02, Feb, revised Feb 2025.
• Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2025, "Panel Machine Learning with Mixed-Frequency Data: Monitoring State-Level Fiscal Variables," Working Papers, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, number 25-04, May, revised May 2025.
• Chris Naubert, 2025, "Differentiable, Filter Free Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models Using Mixture Density Networks," Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada, number 25-3, Jan, DOI: 10.34989/swp-2025-3.
• Stéphane Surprenant, 2025, "Quantile VARs and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting," Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada, number 25-4, Jan, DOI: 10.34989/swp-2025-4.
• Tatjana Dahlhaus & Thibaut Duprey & Craig Johnston, 2025, "Estimating the impacts on GDP of natural disasters in Canada," Staff Analytical Notes, Bank of Canada, number 2025-5, Feb, DOI: 10.34989/san-2025-5.
• Julien Pascal, 2025, "Solving economic models with neural networks without backpropagation," BCL working papers, Central Bank of Luxembourg, number 196, Apr.
• András Borsos & Adrian Carro & Aldo Glielmo & Marc Hinterschweiger & Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa & Arzu Uluc, 2025, "Agent-based modeling at central banks: recent developments and new challenges," Occasional Papers, Banco de España, number 2503, Feb, DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/39238.
• Luis Fernández Lafuerza & Irene Roibás & Raquel Vegas Sánchez, 2025, "Indicadores de desequilibrios de precios del mercado inmobiliario comercial," Occasional Papers, Banco de España, number 2507, Apr, DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/39625.
• Matteo Mogliani & Florens Odendahl, 2025, "Density forecast transformations," Working Papers, Banco de España, number 2511, Feb, DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/38959.
• Valentina Aprigliano & Francesco Corsello, 2025, "Underlying Composite Inflation (UCI): a novel indicator to track inflation developments," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 928, Apr.
• András Borsos & Adrian Carro & Aldo Glielmo & Marc Hinterschweiger & Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa & Arzu Uluc, 2025, "Agent-based modeling at central banks: recent developments and new challenges," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 956, Jul.
• Matteo Santi & Sefano Schiaffi, 2025, "The bank-based transmission of the 2024-25 monetary policy easing in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 964, Sep.
• Stefano Neri, 2025, "Energy prices, inflation and the ECB's monetary policy during the 2021-22 energy crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 1481, Mar.
• Matteo Santi, 2025, "A high-dimensional GDP-at-risk and Inflation-at-risk for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 1484, Mar.
• Vincenzo Cuciniello & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Notarpietro & Sergio Santoro, 2025, "Uncertainty, data dependence and interest rate volatility," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 1513, Dec.
• Daniel Parra-Amado & Camilo Granados, 2025, "Output Gap Measurement after COVID for Colombia: Lessons from a Permanent-Transitory Approach," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, number 1295, Jan, DOI: 10.32468/be.1295.
• Felipe Roldán-Ferrín & Julián A. Parra-Polania, 2025, "Enhancing inflation nowcasting with online search data: a random forest application for Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, number 1318, Jul, DOI: 10.32468/be.1318.
• César Anzola Bravo & Paola Poveda, 2025, "Forecasting Disaggregated Food Inflation Baskets in Colombia with an XGBoost Model," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, number 1335, Dec, DOI: 10.32468/be.1335.
• Fanny Henriet & Yannick Kalantzis & Matthieu Lemoine & Noëmie Lisack & Harri Turunen, 2025, "Bridging the Gap in Macroeconomic Analysis of the Energy Transition: Combining Medium-and Long-Term Approaches," Working papers, Banque de France, number 1000.
• Stéphane Lhuissier, 2025, "Assessing Asymmetric Macroeconomic Risk," Working papers, Banque de France, number 1004.
• Oriane Wegner & Stéphane Dees & Mathieu Boullot & Pauline Lesterquy & Charles Serfaty & Camille Thubin & Youssef Ulgazi & Alice Boitout & Marie Gabet, 2025, "Seeds of Inflation: Macro Modelling of Nature-Related Risks through Agricultural Prices," Working papers, Banque de France, number 1006.
• Matteo Mogliani & Florens Odendahl, 2025, "Density Forecast Transformations," Working papers, Banque de France, number 1027.
• Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo & Nikola Bokan & Fabio Alberto Comazzi & Michele Lenza, 2025, "Word2Prices: embedding central bank communications for inflation prediction," BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 1253, Mar.
• Carlos Madeira, 2025, "The life experience of central bankers and monetary policy decisions: a cross-country dataset," BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 1304, Nov.
• Emanuel Nussli & Rachel Arulraj-Cordonier & Flurina Strasser & Marko Nanut Petrič & Morten Linnemann Bech & Antonio Pipino, 2025, "From listings to all-tenant rents: a probabilistic model," BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 1317, Dec.
• Elizaveta Volgina, 2025, "Forecasting Inflation Using News Indices," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, volume 84, issue 1, pages 26-59, March.
• Sophia Panteeva & Sergey Arzhenovskiy & Karen Tumanyants, 2025, "Semi-Structural Model of Economy of the Southern Macroregion of Russia," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, volume 84, issue 2, pages 65-88, June.
• Alexander Eliseev, 2025, "Nowcasting Russian GDP in a Mixed-Frequency DSGE Model with a Panel of Non-Modelled Variables," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, volume 84, issue 3, pages 63-93, September.
• Ilya Zverev & Nadezhda Kislyak, 2025, "Estimating the Output Gap of the Russian Economy: A Multivariate Approach Based on BVAR and the Beveridge–Nelson Filter," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, volume 84, issue 4, pages 22-46, December.
• Urmat Dzhunkeev, 2025, "MOSES: Macroeconomic Forecasting with Models and Sentiment Synthesis," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, volume 84, issue 4, pages 63-84, December.
• Sergey Ivashchenko, 2025, "Do We Need Тaylor-type Rules in DSGE?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series, Bank of Russia, number wps144, Jan.
• Alexander Eliseev, 2025, "Nowcasting Russian GDP in a mixed-frequency DSGE model with a panel of non-modelled variables," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series, Bank of Russia, number wps145, Feb.
• Sergey Ivashchenko & Andrey Sinyakov, 2025, "Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations Across Economic Agents: Implications for Monetary Policy," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series, Bank of Russia, number wps152, Jul.
• Luke Hartigan & Tom Rosewall, 2025, "Nowcasting Quarterly GDP Growth During the COVID‐19 Crisis Using a Monthly Activity Indicator," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, volume 101, issue 335, pages 456-484, December, DOI: 10.1111/1475-4932.70000.
• F. Blasques & S. J. Koopman & G. Mingoli & S. Telg, 2025, "A Novel Test for the Presence of Local Explosive Dynamics," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, volume 46, issue 5, pages 966-980, September, DOI: 10.1111/jtsa.70001.
• Gunnar Bårdsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2025, "U.S. Wage‐Price Dynamics, Before, During and After COVID‐19, Through the Lens of an Empirical Econometric Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, volume 87, issue 6, pages 1122-1145, December, DOI: 10.1111/obes.12686.
• Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2025, "Firm‐Level Expectations and Macroeconomic Conditions: Underpinnings and Disagreement," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, volume 93, issue 2, pages 203-218, June, DOI: 10.1111/saje.12393.
• Dimitris Korobilis, 2025, "Learning from crises: A new class of time-varying parameter VARs with observable adaptation," Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School, number No 09/2025, Dec.
• Tom Doan, 2025, "BALCILARGUPTAMILLER_EE2015: RATS program to replicate Balcilar, Gupta, Miller(2015) Markov Switching VECM," Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics, number RTZ00192, revised .
• Tom Doan, 2025, "MATHESON_STAVREV_EL2013: RATS programs to replicate Matheson-Stavrev(2013) non-linear state-space model," Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics, number RTZ00216, revised .
• András Borsos & Adrian Carro & Aldo Glielmo & Marc Hinterschweiger & Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa & Arzu Uluc, 2025, "Agent-based modeling at central banks: recent developments and new challenges," Bank of England working papers, Bank of England, number 1122, Feb.
• Jonathan Benchimol & Lahcen Bounader & Mario Dotta, 2025, "Estimating Behavioral Inattention," Bank of Israel Working Papers, Bank of Israel, number 2025.09, Jul.
• Shunsuke Haba & Kimihiko Izawa & Yui Kishaba & Yusuke Takahashi & Shunichi Yoneyama, 2025, "Measuring Policy Effects since the Introduction of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE): An Analysis Using the Macroeconomic Model Q-JEM," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series, Bank of Japan, number 25-E-2, Feb.
• Ichiro Fukunaga & Yui Kishaba & Nao Shibata & Shunichi Yoneyama, 2025, "Uncertainty in the Formation of Inflation Expectations in Japan: An Analysis Using the Macroeconomic Model Q-JEM," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series, Bank of Japan, number 25-E-3, Feb.
• Christian Bayer & Luis Calderon & Moritz Kuhn, 2025, "Distributional Dynamics," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany, number crctr224_2025_625, Jan.
• Dorfman Jeffrey H. & Li Wenying & Zhang Jingfang, 2025, "Forecasting Revisions to U.S. Jobs Report Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, volume 25, issue 2, pages 825-845, DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2024-0145.
• Bachmair, K. & Schmitz, N., 2025, "Forecasting Macro with Finance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, number 2574, Nov.
• Hedvig Gal & Attila Juhasz, 2025, "Quantitative Tightening: Theory, Research, and Impact on Selected Emerging Market Economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, volume 14, issue 1, pages 163-181.
• Volha Audzei & Sergey Slobodyan, 2025, "Dynamic Sparse Adaptive Learning," CERGE-EI Working Papers, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague, number wp797, Jun.
• MD Nazmul Ahsan & Jean-Marie Dufour & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2025, "Modèles de volatilité stochastique à haute dimension: applications à l’incertitude macroéconomique au Québec et au Canada," CIRANO Project Reports, CIRANO, number 2025rp-19, Sep.
• Etienne Briand & Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2025, "Inflation, Attention and Expectations," CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO, number 2025s-01, Jan.
• Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2025, "Panel Machine Learning with Mixed-Frequency Data: Monitoring State-Level Fiscal Variables," CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO, number 2025s-15, May.
• Sona Benecka, 2025, "Forecasting Disaggregated Producer Prices: A Fusion of Machine Learning and Econometric Techniques," Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, number 2025/2, Mar.
• Frantisek Brazdik & Karel Musil & Tomas Pokorny & Tomas Sestorad & Jaromir Tonner & Jan Zacek, 2025, "Upgrading the Czech National Bank's Core Forecasting Model g3+," Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, number 2025/7, May.
• Michal Franta & Jan Vlcek, 2025, "Inflation at Risk: The Czech Case," Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, number 2025/8, May.
• Volha Audzei & Sergey Slobodyan, 2025, "Dynamic Sparse Adaptive Learning," Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, number 2025/9, Jun.
• Juan Jos√© Rinc√≥n Brice√±o, 2025, "Colombian economic activity nowcasting: addressing nonlinearities and high dimensionality through machine-learning," Documentos CEDE, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, number 21388, Jun.
• Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2025, "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," LIDAM Reprints CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 3331, Jan, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2.
• Bayer, Christian & Kuhn, Moritz & Calderon, Luis, 2025, "Distributional Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 19829, Jan.
• Ä°pek, Mahmut Sefa & KısacıkoÄŸlu, Burçin, 2025, "Estimating Euro Area Output Gap Dynamics: Evidence from the updated Area-Wide Model Database," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 19913, Feb.
• Beaudry, Paul & Hou, Chenyu & Portier, Franck, 2025, "On the Fragility of the Nonlinear Phillips Curve View of Recent Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 19950, Feb.
• Hauzenberger, Niko & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Stelzer, Anna, 2025, "Bayesian Nowcasting with Mixed Frequency Data Using Gaussian Processes," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 19965, Feb.
• Fisher, Jonas & Melosi, Leonardo & Rast, Sebastian, 2025, "Long-Run Inflation Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 19991, Mar.
• Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Passari, Evgenia & Petroulakis, Filippos, 2025, "Unpacking Commodity Price Fluctuations: Reading the News to Understand Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 20404, Jul.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2025, "Nonparametric Mixed Frequency Monitoring Macro-at-Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 20442, Jul.
• Monti, Francesca & Van Keirsbilck, Leila, 2025, "The Transmission of Shocks across Sectors and the Dynamics of Sectoral Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 20621, Sep.
• Kamdar, Rupal & Ray, Walker & Ulate, Mauricio, 2025, "We Think That They Think: Political Affiliation and Higher-Order Beliefs," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 20822, Nov.
• Jonas D. M. Fisher & Leonardo Melosi & Sebastian Rast, 2025, "Long-Run Inflation Expectations," Working Papers, DNB, number 829, Mar.
• Lovisa Reiche & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2025, "Who’s on FIRE? Household characteristics and the formation of inflation expectations," Working Papers, DNB, number 852, Dec.
• Foroni, Claudia & Schroeder, Christofer, 2025, "Using corporate earnings calls to forecast euro area labour demand," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, volume 2.
• Angelini, Elena & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Zimic, Srečko, 2025, "The 2021-24 inflation surge through the lens of the ECB-BASE model," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, volume 3.
• Figueres, Juan Manuel & Prieto, Barbara Montero & Scalone, Valerio & Hooft, James ’t & Ter Steege, Lucas & Vallotto, Clarissa, 2025, "A framework to assess the severity of adverse scenarios in EU-wide stress tests," Macroprudential Bulletin, European Central Bank, volume 32.
• Bokan, Nikola & Lenza, Michele & Araujo, Douglas & Comazzi, Fabio Alberto, 2025, "Word2Prices: embedding central bank communications for inflation prediction," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 3047, Apr.
• Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Giammaria, Alessandro & Porqueddu, Mario & van Spronsen, Josha, 2025, "A new model to forecast energy inflation in the euro area," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 3062, Jun.
• Saiz, Lorena & Magro, Manuel Medina, 2025, "What can newspaper articles reveal about the euro area economy?," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 3122, Sep.