Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

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Top JEL
/ E: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
/ / E3: Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
/ / / E37: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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This JEL code is mentioned in the following RePEc Biblio entries:

1. Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables
2. Nowcasting

2014

• Ch. Piette & G. Langenus, 2014, "Using BREL to nowcast the Belgian business cycle: the role of survey data," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 75-98, June.
• David de Antonio Liedo, 2014, "Nowcasting Belgium," Working Paper Research, National Bank of Belgium, number 256, Apr.
• Marcin Kolasa & Michał Rubaszek, 2014, "How frequently should we re-estimate DSGE models?," NBP Working Papers, Narodowy Bank Polski, number 194.
• Hess Chung & Edward Herbst & Michael T. Kiley, 2014, "Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29".
• Robert B. Barsky & Susanto Basu & Keyoung Lee, 2014, "Whither News Shocks?," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29".
• Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014, "Betting the House," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2014".
• Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide, 2014, "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 20055, Apr.
• Oliver D. Bunn & Robert J. Shiller, 2014, "Changing Times, Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the US Stock Market 1872-2013," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 20370, Aug.
• Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014, "The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 20501, Sep.
• Marco Del Negro & Raiden B. Hasegawa & Frank Schorfheide, 2014, "Dynamic Prediction Pools: An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 20575, Oct.
• Hess Chung & Edward Herbst & Michael T. Kiley, 2014, "Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Re-examination," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 20611, Oct.
• Robert B. Barsky & Susanto Basu & Keyoung Lee, 2014, "Whither News Shocks?," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 20666, Nov.
• Òscar Jordà & Moritz HP. Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014, "Betting the House," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 20771, Dec.
• Mark Setterfield & Shyam Gouri Suresh, 2014, "Multi-Agent Systems as a Tool for Analyzing Path-Dependent Macrodynamics," Working Papers, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, number 1405, Dec.
• Nigel Pain & Christine Lewis & Thai-Thanh Dang & Yosuke Jin & Pete Richardson, 2014, "OECD Forecasts During and After the Financial Crisis: A Post Mortem," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 1107, Mar, DOI: 10.1787/5jz73l1qw1s1-en.
• Thomas Chalaux & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2014, "Short-term Indicator Models for Quarterly GDP Growth in the BRIICS: A Small-scale Bridge Model Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 1109, Mar, DOI: 10.1787/5jz5t6b77rg4-en.
• Christine Lewis & Nigel Pain, 2014, "Lessons from OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, volume 2014, issue 1, pages 9-39, DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-2014-5jxrcm2glc.
• Matthieu Cornec, 2014, "Constructing a conditional GDP fan chart with an application to French business survey data," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, volume 2013, issue 2, pages 109-127, DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2013-5jz417xzw931.
• Marie Bessec & Catherine Doz, 2014, "Short-term forecasting of French GDP growth using dynamic factor models," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, volume 2013, issue 2, pages 11-50, DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2013-5jz742l0pt8s.
• Sumru Altug & Erhan Uluceviz, 2013, "Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010: A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, volume 2014, issue 1, pages 1-37, DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2013-5k4221j86n8v.
• Tomáš Slacík & Katharina Steiner & Julia Wörz, 2014, "Can Trade Partners Help Better FORCEE the Future? Impact of Trade Linkages on Economic Growth Forecasts in Selected CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 36-56.
• Yazid Dissou & Lilia Karnizova, 2014, "Comovement of oil prices with US economic indicators over the business cycle: facts and explanations," Working Papers, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics, number E1401E.
• Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014, "Regional economic forecasting: state-of-the-art methodology and future challenges," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, volume 3, issue 4, pages 218-231.
• Duda-Daianu Dana-Codruta & Piroi Marioara, 2014, "Consideration regarding the Improvement of the Financial Crisis Forecasting Models for Enterprises in Emerging Countries," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 0, issue 1, pages 296-301, May.
• Marco Del Negro & Raiden B. Hasegawa & Frank Schorfheide, 2014, "Dynamic Prediction Pools: An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance," PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, number 14-034, Oct.
• Papanek, Gábor & Petz, Raymund, 2014, "How Reliable are Hungarian Macroeconomic Forecasts?," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, volume 59, issue 1, pages 65-85.
• Arora, Vipin, 2014, "Estimates of the Price Elasticities of Natural Gas Supply and Demand in the United States," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 54232, Mar.
• Franco, Ray John Gabriel & Mapa, Dennis S., 2014, "The Dynamics of Inflation and GDP Growth: A Mixed Frequency Model Approach," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 55858.
• Yu, Eric Jinsan, 2014, "Predictive Power of Aggregate Short Interest," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 56259, May.
• Cebula, Richard, 2014, "An Investigation into the Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yield on Treasury Notes in the U.S," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 57317, Jul.
• Medel, Carlos A., 2014, "Probabilidad Clásica de Sobreajuste con Criterios de Información: Estimaciones con Series Macroeconómicas Chilenas
  [Classical Probability of Overfitting with Information Criteria: Estimations with Chilean Macroeconomic Series]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 57401, Jul.
• Sen Gupta, Abhijit & Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Rao, Narhari, 2014, "Understanding Food Inflation in India," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 58319, May.
• Hännikäinen, Jari, 2014, "The mortgage spread as a predictor of real-time economic activity," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 58360, Sep.
• Ardakani, Omid & Kishor, N. Kundan, 2014, "Examining the Success of the Central Banks in Inflation Targeting Countries: The Dynamics of Inflation Gap and the Institutional Characteristics," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 58402, Sep.
• Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya A., 2014, "Structural Stability of the Generalized Taylor Rule," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 58737.
• Augustyniak, Hanna & Łaszek, Jacek & Olszewski, Krzysztof & Waszczuk, Joanna, 2014, "Housing market cycles – a disequilibrium model and its application to the primary housing market in Warsaw," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 59018.
• Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014, "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 59361, Oct.
• Gatt, William, 2014, "Communicating uncertainty - a fan chart for HICP projections," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 59603, Sep.
• Augustyniak, Hanna & Leszczyński, Robert & Łaszek, Jacek & Olszewski, Krzysztof & Waszczuk, Joanna, 2014, "On the dynamics of the primary housing market and the forecasting of house prices," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 61015, Dec.
• Lahcen, Mohammed Ait, 2014, "DSGE models for developing economies: an application to Morocco," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 63404, Aug.
• Ovalle, Raul & Ramírez, Francisco A., 2014, "Reglas versus Discreción en la Política Fiscal: Introducción al caso Dominicano
  [Rules vs Discretion in Fiscal Policy: An Introduction to the Case of the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 68332, Sep.
• Huseynov, Salman & Ahmadov, Vugar, 2014, "Azərbaycan üzrə DSÜT modeli: qiymətləndirmə və proqnozlaşdırma
  [A DSGE model for Azerbaijan: estimation and forecasting]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 78123, Aug.
• Mansur, Alfan, 2014, "The Impacts of the United States Fiscal Deficit Reduction to the World Economy," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 93967, Sep, revised 20 Sep 2014.
• Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014, "Regime Switching Model of US Crude Oil and Stock Market Prices: 1859 to 2013," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201429, Jun.
• Paresh K. Narayan & Rangan Gupta, 2014, "Has Oil Pirce Predicted Stock Returns for Over a Century?," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201446, Aug.
• Christian Pierdzioch & Monique B. Reid & Rangan Gupta, 2014, "Inflation Forecasts and Forecaster Herding: Evidence from South African Survey Data," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201455, Oct.
• Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2014, "The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Forecasting US Inflation Using a VARFIMA Model," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201460, Oct.
• Christian Pierdzioch & Monique B. Reid & Rangan Gupta, 2014, "On the Directional Accuracy of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South African Survey Data," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201463, Oct.
• Christian Pierdzioch & Monique B. Reid & Rangan Gupta, 2014, "Forecasting the South African Inflation Rate: On Asymmetric Loss and Forecast Rationality," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201475, Nov.
• Daniela Milučká, 2014, "Inflation dynamics in the Czech Republic: Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," International Journal of Economic Sciences, Prague University of Economics and Business, volume 2014, issue 2, pages 53-70.
• Emília Jakubíková & Andrea Tkáčová & Anna Bánociová, 2014, "Kompozitné predstihové indikátory hospodárskych cyklov krajín V4 a ich komparácia s CLI Eurostatu a OECD
  [Composite Leading Indicators of Economic Cycles of V4 Countries and their Comparison to the CLI of the Eurostat and the OECD]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, volume 2014, issue 2, pages 194-215, DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.946.
• Helena Chytilová & Zdeněk Chytil, 2014, "Ekonomické vzdělání a peněžní iluze, experimentální přístup
  [Economic Education and Money Illusion: An Experimental Approach]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, volume 2014, issue 4, pages 500-520, DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.966.
• Cláudia Duarte, 2014, "Autoregressive augmentation of MIDAS regressions," Working Papers, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department, number w201401.
• Diana María Morán Chiquito, 2014, "Determinantes de la inflación en Ecuador Un análisis econométrico utilizando modelos VAR," Economia y Sociedad., Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolas de Hidalgo, Facultad de Economia, issue 31, pages 53-70, Julio-Dic.
• Winkelried, Diego, 2014, "Inferring inflation expectations from fixed-event forecasts," Working Papers, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, number 2014-016, Dec.
• Michael K. Johnston & Robert G. King & Denny Lie, 2014, "Straightforward approximate stochastic equilibria for nonlinear Rational Expectations models," Working Papers, South African Reserve Bank, number 6457, Oct.
• Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov & Kerry Patterson & Fabio Rumler, 2014, "The Predictive Performance of Fundamental Inflation Concepts: An Application to the Euro Area and the United States," Economics Discussion Papers, Department of Economics, University of Reading, number em-dp2014-03, May.
• Marc Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide & Marco Del Negro, 2014, "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models," 2014 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics, number 506.
• Stefano Eusepi & Richard Crump & Emanuel Moench & Philippe Andrade, 2014, "Noisy Information and Fundamental Disagreement," 2014 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics, number 797.
• Nebiye, Sinem & Yamak, Nebiye, 2014, "Demand for International Reserves in Turkey," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, volume 17, issue 52, pages 63-76, June.
• Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014, "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Paper series, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, number 40_14, Nov.
• Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney Strachan, 2014, "Stochastic Model Specification Search for Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Working Paper series, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, number 44_14, Dec.
• Benno Ferrarini, 2014, "Asian Development Outlook Forecast Skill," ADB Economics Working Paper Series, Asian Development Bank, number 386, Feb.
• David Roland-Holst & Guntur Sugiyarto, 2014, "Growth Horizons for a Changing Asian Regional Economy," ADB Economics Working Paper Series, Asian Development Bank, number 392, Mar.
• Mihaela Simionescu, 2014, "Bayesian Forecasts Combination To Improve The Romanian Inflation Predictions Based On Econometric Models," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, volume 5, issue 2, pages 131-140.
• Robert Pater, 2014, "Are there two types of business cycles? a note on crisis detection," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, volume 10, issue 3, pages 1-28, December.
• Shashanka Bhide & Purna Chandra Parida, 2014, "Macroeconomic Modelling of Emerging Scenarios for India’s Twelfth Five-Year Plan," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, volume 8, issue 4, pages 495-565, November, DOI: 10.1177/0973801014544576.
• Randolph Luca Bruno & Elodie Douarin & Julia Korosteleva & Slavo Radosevic, 2014, "Technology choices and growth: testing and expanding the propositions of new structural economics in transition economies," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES), number 127, May, revised Oct 2014.
• Svetlana Makarova, 2014, "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES), number 129, Sep.
• Salvatore Morelli, 2014, "Banking Crises in the US: the Response of Top Income Shares in a Historical Perspective," CSEF Working Papers, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, number 359, Apr.
• Emilie Jasova, 2014, "A Model for Estimation of NAIRU Extended by Demand Shocks and its Application to Business Cycle Analysis in the Labour Market in Hungary and Poland," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, number 0401788, Jul.
• Ricardo Marto, 2014, "Assessing the Impacts of Non-Ricardian Households in an Estimated New Keynesian DSGE Model," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), volume 150, issue IV, pages 353-398, December.
• Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2014, "Exchange rate and price dynamics in a small open economy - the role of the zero lower bound and monetary policy regimes," Working Papers, Swiss National Bank, number 2014-10.
• Hercules E. Haralambides & Helen Thanopoulou, 2014, "The Economic Crisis of 2008 and World Shipping: Unheeded Warnings," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, volume 64, issue 2, pages 5-13, April-Jun.
• P. Schanbacher, 2014, "Measuring and adjusting for overconfidence," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, volume 37, issue 2, pages 423-452, October, DOI: 10.1007/s10203-013-0153-y.
• Wojciech W. Charemza & Yuriy Kharin & Vladislav Maevskiy, 2014, "Bilinear Forecast Risk Assessment for Non-systematic Inflation: Theory and Evidence," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, Springer, in: Frauke Schleer-van Gellecom, "Advances in Non-linear Economic Modeling", DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-42039-9_6.
• Giovanni De Luca & Alfonso Carfora, 2014, "Predicting U.S. recessions through a combination of probability forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 46, issue 1, pages 127-144, February, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-012-0671-4.
• Steven Cassou & Jesús Vázquez, 2014, "Employment comovements at the sectoral level over the business cycle," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 46, issue 4, pages 1301-1323, June, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-013-0720-7.
• Henning Fischer & Marta García-Bárzana & Peter Tillmann & Peter Winker, 2014, "Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 47, issue 1, pages 365-388, August, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-013-0736-z.
• E. Mamatzakis, 2014, "Revealing asymmetries in the loss function of WTI oil futures market," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 47, issue 2, pages 411-426, September, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-013-0764-8.
• Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2014, "Inflation uncertainty revisited: a proposal for robust measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 47, issue 4, pages 1497-1523, December, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-013-0789-z.
• Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014, "Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), volume 34, issue 1, pages 61-90, February, DOI: 10.1007/s10037-013-0083-8.
• Hamid Baghestani, 2014, "On the loss structure of federal reserve forecasts of output growth," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, volume 38, issue 3, pages 518-527, July, DOI: 10.1007/s12197-012-9230-2.
• Ping Chen, 2014, "Metabolic growth theory: market-share competition, learning uncertainty, and technology wavelets," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, volume 24, issue 2, pages 239-262, April, DOI: 10.1007/s00191-014-0341-0.
• Valentina Raponi & Cecilia Frale, 2014, "Revisions in official data and forecasting," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, volume 23, issue 3, pages 451-472, August, DOI: 10.1007/s10260-014-0262-y.
• Roland Döhrn, 2014, "Weshalb konjunkturprognostiker regelmäßig den wetterbericht studieren sollten," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, volume 94, issue 7, pages 487-491, July, DOI: 10.1007/s10273-014-1701-y.
• Joshua C C Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014, "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Papers, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics, number 1409, Sep.
• Yuelin Liu, 2014, "How Structural Is Unemployment in the United States?," Discussion Papers, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales, number 2014-42, Dec.
• Johnston, Michael K. & King, Robert G. & Lie, Denny, 2014, "Straightforward approximate stochastic equilibria for nonlinear Rational Expectations models," Working Papers, University of Sydney, School of Economics, number 2014-09, Aug.
• Christian Pierdzioch & Monique B. Reid & Rangan Gupta, 2014, "Inflation Forecasts and Forecaster Herding: Evidence from South African Survey Data," Working Papers, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics, number 21/2014.
• Christian Pierdzioch & Monique B. Reid & Rangan Gupta, 2014, "On the Directional Accuracy of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South African Survey Data," Working Papers, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics, number 24/2014.
• Christian Pierdzioch & Monique B. Reid & Rangan Gupta, 2014, "Forecasting the South African Inflation Rate: On Asymmetric Loss and Forecast Rationality," Working Papers, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics, number 26/2014.
• Raphael A Auer, 2014, "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Domestic Competition, and Infl?ation: Evidence from the 2005/08 Revaluation of the Renminbi," Working Papers, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee, number 15.01, Dec.
• Markus Haavio & Caterina Mendicino & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2014, "Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 21, issue 6, pages 407-412, April, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2013.864025.
• Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2014, "Nowcasting GDP in Real Time: A Density Combination Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 32, issue 1, pages 48-68, January, DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2013.844155.
• Lucia Alessi & Eric Ghysels & Luca Onorante & Richard Peach & Simon Potter, 2014, "Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting During the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 32, issue 4, pages 483-500, October, DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2014.959124.
• Jari Hännikäinen, 2014, "The mortgage spread as a predictor of real-time economic activity," Working Papers, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics, number 1496, Sep.
• Selen Baser Andic & Hande Kucuk & Fethi Ogunc, 2014, "Inflation Dynamics in Turkey : In Pursuit of a Domestic Cost Measure," Working Papers, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, number 1420.
• Mihaela Simionescu, 2014, "Directional accuracy for inflation and unemployment rate predictions in Romania," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, volume 7, issue 2, pages 129-138, September.
• Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014, "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 14-152/III, Dec.
• Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2014, "Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation," Other publications TiSEM, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management, number f337739d-e15a-4461-a461-8.
• Iikka Korhonen & Maria Ritola, 2014, "An Empirical Note on the Success of Forecasting Economic Developments in Major Emerging Markets," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, volume 13, issue 1, pages 131-154, Winter.
• John Clark, 2014, "Capital gains tax: historical trends and forecasting frameworks," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 2, pages 35-51, July.
• Jared Bullen & Michael Kouparitsas & Michal Krolikowski, 2014, "Long run forecasts of Australia’s terms of trade," Treasury Working Papers, The Treasury, Australian Government, number 2014-01, May, revised May 2014.
• Tae-Hwy Lee & Yiyao Wang, 2014, "Asymmetric Loss in the Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, number 201407, Sep.
• Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014, "Regime Switching Model of US Crude Oil and Stock Market Prices: 1859 to 2013," Working papers, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, number 2014-26, Sep.
• Stefano Grassi & Tommaso Proietti & Cecilia Frale & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gianluigi Mazzi, 2014, "EuroMInd-C: a Disaggregate Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity for the Euro," Studies in Economics, School of Economics, University of Kent, number 1406, May.
• Robert Kollmann, 2014, "Tractable Latent State Filtering for Non-Linear DSGE Models Using a Second-Order Approximation and Pruning," ULB Institutional Repository, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, number 2013/250061.
• Pablo Galaso & Sandra Rodriguez, 2014, "A composite leading cycle indicator for Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers), Instituto de Economía - IECON, number 14-09, Sep.
• Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014, "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", number 2014:19.
• Cabanillas, Oscar Barriga & Lugo, Maria Ana & Nielsen, Hannah & Rodriguez-Castelan, Carlos & Zanetti, Maria Pia, 2014, "Is Uruguay more resilient this time? distributional impacts of a crisis similar to the 2001/02 Argentine crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank, number 6849, Apr.
• Marta Bańbura & Michele Modugno, 2014, "Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Factor Models On Datasets With Arbitrary Pattern Of Missing Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 29, issue 1, pages 133-160, January, DOI: 10.1002/jae.2306.
• Nalan Baştürk & Cem Çakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2014, "Posterior‐Predictive Evidence On Us Inflation Using Extended New Keynesian Phillips Curve Models With Non‐Filtered Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 29, issue 7, pages 1164-1182, November, DOI: 10.1002/jae.2411.
• Michael P. Clements, 2014, "US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 33, issue 1, pages 1-14, January.
• Miguel A.G. Belmonte & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2014, "Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time‐Varying Parameter Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 33, issue 1, pages 80-94, January.
• Klaus Wohlrabe & Teresa Buchen, 2014, "Assessing the Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance of Boosting: Evidence for the United States, the Euro Area and Germany," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 33, issue 4, pages 231-242, July.
• Paul Hubert, 2014, "FOMC Forecasts as a Focal Point for Private Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 46, issue 7, pages 1381-1420, October, DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12142.
• Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2014, "Analysis of forecast errors in micro-level survey data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, number 8/2014.
• Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta, 2014, "Analysis of aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB SPF survey," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, number 29/2014.
• Schumacher, Christian, 2014, "MIDAS and bridge equations," Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank, number 26/2014.
• Tillmann, Peter & Wolters, Maik H., 2014, "The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: A quantile regression approach," Economics Working Papers, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics, number 2014-09.
• Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2014, "The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions," CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS), number 460.
• Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2014, "Marginalized predictive likelihood comparisons of linear Gaussian state-space models with applications to DSGE, DSGEVAR, and VAR models," CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS), number 478.
• Schreiber, Sven, 2014, "Anticipating business-cycle turning points in real time using density forecasts from a VAR," Discussion Papers, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics, number 2014/2.
• Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Rannenberg, Ansgar & Schreiber, Sven, 2014, "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers: A comment," Discussion Papers, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics, number 2014/6.
• Leppin, Julian Sebastian, 2014, "The relation between overreaction in forecasts and uncertainty: A nonlinear approachvon," HWWI Research Papers, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI), number 158.
• Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2014, "Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area: An empirical assessment," Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, number 1908.
• Pirschel, Inske & Wolters, Maik H., 2014, "Forecasting German key macroeconomic variables using large dataset methods," Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, number 1925.
• Tillmann, Peter & Wolters, Maik H., 2014, "The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: A quantile regression approach," Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, number 1951.
• Drechsel, Katja & Giesen, Sebastian & Lindner, Axel, 2014, "Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators," IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), number 4/2014.
• Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Holtemöller, Oliver & Kämpfe, Martina & Knedlik, Tobias & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Scherer, Birgit & Schultz, Jan-Christopher & Zeddies, Götz, 2014, "Konjunktur aktuell: Binnenwirtschaft trägt Konjunktur in Deutschland," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 2, issue 1, pages 3-35.
• Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Holtemöller, Oliver & Loose, Brigitte & Zeddies, Götz, 2014, "Der Koalitionsvertrag und die mittelfristige wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland – mittelfristige Projektion für die Jahre 2013 bis 2018," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 2, issue 1, pages 36-40.
• Holtemöller, Oliver & Altemeyer-Bartscher, Martin & Knedlik, Tobias & Lindner, Axel & Zeddies, Götz, 2014, "Zur Wirtschaftspolitik: Strukturreformen auch in Deutschland erforderlich," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 2, issue 1, pages 41-54.
• Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Holtemöller, Oliver & Kämpfe, Martina & Knedlik, Tobias & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Scherer, Jan-Christopher & Schultz, Birgit & Zeddies, Götz & Henn, 2014, "Konjunktur aktuell: Konjunktur in Deutschland gewinnt an Schwung," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 2, issue 2, pages 68-101.
• Drechsel, Katja & Holtemöller, Oliver & Loose, Brigitte & Zeddies, Götz, 2014, "Mittelfristige Projektion der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in den Jahren 2014 bis 2018," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 2, issue 2, pages 102-105.
• Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Kämpfe, Martina & Kiesel, Konstantin & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Scherer, Jan-Christopher & Schultz, Birgit & Zeddies, Götz, 2014, "Konjunktur aktuell: Binnennachfrage treibt Aufschwung in Deutschland," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 2, issue 3, pages 112-118.
• Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Holtemöller, Oliver & Kämpfe, Martina & Kiesel, Konstantin & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Scherer, Jan-Christopher & Schultz, Birgit & Zeddies, Götz & H, 2014, "Konjunktur aktuell: Deutsche Konjunktur hat Schwung verloren," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 2, issue 4, pages 163-174.
• Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2014, "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose im Herbst 2014: Deutsche Wirtschaft stagniert – Jetzt Wachstumskräfte stärken (Kurzfassung)," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 20, issue 5, pages 80-81.
• Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Holtemöller, Oliver & Kämpfe, Martina & Knedlik, Tobias & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Scherer, Birgit & Schultz, Jan-Christopher & Zeddies, Götz, 2014, "Binnenwirtschaft trägt Konjunktur in Deutschland," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 20, issue 1, pages 3-4.
• Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2014, "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2014: Deutsche Konjunktur im Aufschwung – aber Gegenwind von der Wirtschaftspolitik (Kurzfassung)," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 20, issue 2, pages 24-25.
• Holtemöller, Oliver, 2014, "Glaskugel Prognose – Warum werden ökonomische Prognosen nicht besser?," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 20, issue 2, pages 26-29.
• Schumacher, Christian, 2014, "MIDAS regressions with time-varying parameters: An application to corporate bond spreads and GDP in the Euro area," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 100289.
• Drechsel, Katja & Giesen, Sebastian & Lindner, Axel, 2014, "Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 100393.
• Grimme, Christian & Siemsen, Thomas, 2014, "Are You a Lehman, Brother? Interbank Uncertainty in a DSGE Model," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 100498.
• Pirschel, Inske & Wolters, Maik, 2014, "Forecasting German key macroeconomic variables using large dataset methods," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 100587.
• Manuel Lukas & Eric Hillebrand, 2014, "Bagging Weak Predictors," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2014-01, Jan.
• Varang Wiriyawit, 2014, "Trend Mis-specifications and Estimated Policy Implications in DSGE Models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, number 2014-615, Apr.
• Guney, Selin, 2015, "An evaluation of price forecasts of the cattle market under structural changes," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 205109, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.205109.
• Narek Ghazaryan, 2014, "Short Term Forecasting System of Private Demand Components in Armenia," Working Papers, Central Bank of Armenia, number 3, Apr, revised Dec 2015.
• Hayk Karapetyan, 2019, "Estimating Potential Output at the Central Bank of Armenia," Working Papers, Central Bank of Armenia, number 12, Oct.
• Victor Yotzov, 2014, "Prognostic Power of Early Warning Signals for Financial Crises – Theoretical Approaches and Empirical Results," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 3-38.
• Maxime Leboeuf & Louis Morel, 2014, "Forecasting Short-Term Real GDP Growth in the Euro Area and Japan Using Unrestricted MIDAS Regressions," Discussion Papers, Bank of Canada, number 14-3, DOI: 10.34989/sdp-2014-3.
• Stephen S. Poloz, 2014, "Integrating Uncertainty and Monetary Policy-Making: A Practitioner’s Perspective," Discussion Papers, Bank of Canada, number 14-6, DOI: 10.34989/sdp-2014-6.
• Olivier Gervais & Marc-André Gosselin, 2014, "Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model," Technical Reports, Bank of Canada, number 102, DOI: 10.34989/tr-102.
• Ian Christensen & Fuchun Li, 2014, "Predicting Financial Stress Events: A Signal Extraction Approach," Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada, number 14-37, DOI: 10.34989/swp-2014-37.
• Luis N. Lanteri, 2014, "Stock Market Indicators and Economic Activity. Some Evidence for Argentina," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, volume 1, issue 70, pages 83-108, June.
• Marianna Riggi & Fabrizio Venditti, 2014, "Surprise! Euro area inflation has fallen," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 237, Sep.
• Stefano Neri & Alessandro Notarpietro, 2014, "Inflation, debt and the zero lower bound," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 242, Oct.
• Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta & Carlos Mulas-Granados & Fabio Balboni & Mirko Licchetta & Alexander Klemm & Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufr�not & Ricardo M. Sousa & Raffaela Giordano & Marcello Peric, 2014, "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Imbalances," Workshop and Conferences, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 16, Nov.
• Fabio Busetti & Pietro Cova & Antonio Maria Conti & Filippo Scoccianti & Libero Monteforte & Giordano Zevi & Valentina Aprigliano & Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimili, 2014, "The effects of the crisis on production potential and household spending in Italy," Workshop and Conferences, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 18, Dec.
• Alexander Guarín & Andrés González & Daphné Skandalis & Daniela Sánchez, 2014, "An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms Using Macroeconomic Aggregates," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, volume 32, issue 73, pages 77-86, July, DOI: 10.1016/S0120-4483(14)70020-X.
• Matteo Mogliani & V ronique Brunhes-Lesage & Olivier Darn & Bertrand Pluyaud, 2014, "New estimate of the MIBA forecasting model. Modeling first-release GDP using the Banque de France's Monthly Business Survey and the blocking approach," Working papers, Banque de France, number 473.
• Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli, 2014, "Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor-augmented mixed-frequency approach," Working papers, Banque de France, number 515.
• Clément Marsilli, 2014, "Variable Selection in Predictive MIDAS Models," Working papers, Banque de France, number 520.
• Frédérique Bec & A. De Gaye, 2014, "How do oil price forecast errors impact inflation forecast errors? An empirical analysis from French and US inflation forecasts," Working papers, Banque de France, number 523.
• Philippe Andrade & R. Crump & S. Eusepi & E. Moench, 2014, "Fundamental disagreement," Working papers, Banque de France, number 524.
• Laurent Ferrara & SESTIERI, G., 2014, "Marché du travail et politique monétaire aux États-Unis : débats actuels et enjeux," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 198, pages 113-124.
• L. Ferrara. & G. Sestieri., 2014, "US labour market and monetary policy: current debates and challenges," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 36, pages 111-129, winter.
• Marlene Amstad & Ye Huan & Guonan Ma, 2014, "Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China," BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 465, Sep.
• David Matesanz & Benno Torgler & Germán Dabat & Guillermo J. Ortega, 2014, "Co-movements in commodity prices: a note based on network analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, volume 45, issue S1, pages 13-21, November.
• Jan-Erik Antipin & Farid Jimmy Boumediene & Pär Österholm, 2014, "Forecasting Inflation Using Constant Gain Least Squares," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, volume 53, issue 1-2, pages 2-15, June.
• Costas KARFAKIS & Constantinos KATRAKILIDIS & Eftychia TSANANA, 2014, "Does output predict unemployment? A look at Okun's law in Greece," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, volume 153, issue 3, pages 421-433, September.
• Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer & Rianne Legerstee, 2014, "Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Concise Review Of Some Recent Developments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, volume 28, issue 2, pages 195-208, April.
• Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2014, "Where Is An Oil Shock?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, volume 54, issue 2, pages 169-185, March.
• Ferdi Botha & Gavin Keeton, 2014, "A Note on the (Continued) Ability of the Yield Curve to Forecast Economic Downturns in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, volume 82, issue 3, pages 468-473, September.
• Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014, "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2014/02, Feb.
• Ørjan Robstad, 2014, "House prices, credit and the effect of monetary policy in Norway: Evidence from Structural VAR Models," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2014/05, May.
• Knut Are Aastveit & Claudia Foroni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014, "Density forecasts with MIDAS models," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2014/10, Jul.
• Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Harman K. van Dijk, 2014, "Parallel sequential Monte Carlo for efficient density combination: The DeCo MATLAB toolbox," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2014/11, Jul.
• Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014, "Combined Density Nowcasting in an uncertain economic environment," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2014/17, Dec.
• Kangwoo Park & Sangwoo Lee, 2014, "In Search of Better Labor-Market Indicators: Assessment of Inflation Predictability (in Korean)," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, volume 20, issue 1, pages 1-32, March.
• Hwan-Koo Kang & Yang Su Park & Jinho Choi, 2014, "Recent Developments and Challenges in DSGE Modeling at Central Banks: A Survey (in Korean)," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, volume 20, issue 1, pages 94-144, March.
• A. Girardi & R. Golinelli & C. Pappalardo, 2014, "The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time," Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna, number wp919, Jan.
• Suleyman Hilmi Kal & Nuran Arslaner & Ferhat Arslaner, 2014, "Inflation Dynamics and Business Cycles," BIFEC Book of Abstracts & Proceedings, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, volume 1, issue 2, pages 121-129, March.
• Cassou Steven P. & Vázquez Jesús, 2014, "Small-scale New Keynesian model features that can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, volume 14, issue 1, pages 267-300, January, DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2012-0037.
• Jawadi Fredj & Mallick Sushanta K. & Sousa Ricardo M., 2014, "Fiscal policy in the BRICs," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, volume 18, issue 2, pages 201-215, April, DOI: 10.1515/snde-2013-0044.