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Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination

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  • Hess Chung
  • Edward Herbst
  • Michael T. Kiley

Abstract

We explore the importance of the nature of nominal price and wage adjustment for the design of effective monetary policy strategies, especially at the zero lower bound. Our analysis suggests that sticky-price and sticky-information models fit standard macroeconomic time series comparably well. However, the model with information rigidity responds differently to anticipated shocks and persistent zero-lower bound episodes - to a degree important for monetary policy and for understanding the effects of fundamental disturbances when monetary policy cannot adjust. These differences may be important for understanding other policy issues as well, such as fiscal multipliers. Despite these differences, many aspects of effective policy strategy are common across the two models: In particular, highly inertial interest rate rules that respond to nominal income or the price level perform well, even when hit by adverse supply shocks or large demand shocks that induce the zero-lower bound. Rules that respond to the level or change in the output gap can perform poorly under those conditions.
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  • Hess Chung & Edward Herbst & Michael T. Kiley, 2015. "Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 289-344.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/680629
    DOI: 10.1086/680629
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    1. The Phillips Curve and Inflation
      by thebusinesscycleblog in The business cycle blog on 2016-05-21 23:08:29

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    3. Haberis, Alex & Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2019. "Uncertain policy promises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 459-474.
    4. Kiley, Michael T. & Sim, Jae, 2017. "Optimal monetary and macroprudential policies: Gains and pitfalls in a model of financial intermediation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 232-259.
    5. Hess T. Chung & Etienne Gagnon & Taisuke Nakata & Matthias Paustian & Bernd Schlusche & James Trevino & Diego Vilan & Wei Zheng, 2019. "Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound : Assessing the Federal Reserve's Current Policy Toolkit," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Michael Kiley, 2016. "Policy Paradoxes in the New-Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 1-15, July.
    7. Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco, 2019. "Beliefs formation and the puzzle of forward guidance power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 20-32.
    8. Proaño, Christian R. & Lojak, Benjamin, 2020. "Animal spirits, risk premia and monetary policy at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 221-233.
    9. George-Marios Angeletos, 2018. "Frictional Coordination," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 563-603.
    10. Haberis, Alex & Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matthew, 2017. "Uncertain forward guidance," Bank of England working papers 654, Bank of England.
    11. George-Marios Angeletos & Zhen Huo, 2021. "Myopia and Anchoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(4), pages 1166-1200, April.
    12. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2018. "Super-inertial interest rate rules are not solutions of Ramsey optimal monetary policy," PSE Working Papers halshs-01863367, HAL.
    13. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2014. "Comment on "Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, pages 345-353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Hess Chung & Edward Herbst & Michael T. Kiley, 2015. "Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 289-344.
    15. Michael T. Kiley & John M. Roberts, 2017. "Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 317-396.
    16. Martin Bodenstein & Junzhu Zhao, 2019. "On Targeting Frameworks And Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(8), pages 2077-2113, December.
    17. Hommes, Cars & Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2021. "Price level versus inflation targeting under heterogeneous expectations: a laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 39-82.
    18. Adam, Felix & Matthes, Jürgen, 2018. "Zur Belastbarkeit von Forderungen nach expansiver Fiskalpolitik an der Nullzinsgrenze: Eine Kritik neukeynesianischer Modelle auf Basis einer Literaturanalyse," IW-Reports 7/2018, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    19. Timothy S. Hills & Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2016. "The Risk of Returning to the Effective Lower Bound: An Implication for Inflation Dynamics After Lift-Off," FEDS Notes 2016-02-12-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Eric M. Engen & Thomas Laubach & David L. Reifschneider, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Hess Chung & Etienne Gagnon & Taisuke Nakata & Matthias Paustian & Bernd Schlusche & James Trevino & Diego Vilán & Wei Zheng, 2020. "Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound: Assessing the Federal Reserve’s Current Policy Toolkit," CARF F-Series CARF-F-483, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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